Kyler Murray - Arizona Cardinal

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Markulous wrote:
jnadke wrote:
Markulous wrote:Makes sense. In other words, if he is a stud in baseball then he can make a crap ton of money, but just being ok or kinda good isn't going to eclipse getting a starter salary in the NFL.

Correct.

Though in Murray's case there's a lot more risk in the MLB than the NFL in terms of development to get that 2nd contract, since he's not guaranteed to develop in batting. As far as I understand his strike-out rate was rather high in college despite being an above-average batter.

MLB teams don't pay ridiculous contracts to great outfielders (though that's not entirely fair to say, given the defensive component, best at their talent will always be paid well). They pay ridiculous contracts to great batters and put them on outfielder.

If he's torn and money is the deciding factor, then it seems like a no-brainer decision. If he is trying to follow what he enjoys most and not sure, then that makes it more complex.


Is that what we're calling CTE these days?

IMO baseball careers are way longer, the pay is guaranteed, and the risk of your brain falling out of your ear is way less.

Whatever he wants to do is fine, but yeah, definitely seems like a no-brainer to me. Especially if he can get up-front guarantees from the As with his leverage.
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vonbearsalot wrote:
Is that what we're calling CTE these days?

IMO baseball careers are way longer, the pay is guaranteed, and the risk of your brain falling out of your ear is way less.

Whatever he wants to do is fine, but yeah, definitely seems like a no-brainer to me. Especially if he can get up-front guarantees from the As with his leverage.

This is all true, however as mentioned earlier, it's unlikely he'll get paid as much in MLB as he would in the NFL on his second contract. If his attitude is either way it's a ton of money and I like both sports equally, then yeah absolutely go to baseball. If he wants to maximize how much money he gets, the NFL is probably a better opportunity unless he can really become a great batter.
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And he doesn't have to worry about stretching that money nearly as long, what with the risk of premature death and all that.
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Which of these two sports actually has the bigger audience? Globally, I mean.
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jamcutpost wrote:I dont know about all you guys, ima just going to wait a cpl months before i even begin to think about Murray.

ATM i dont have anything going on draft board wise, wont till about the end of Feb.

But if i did?

He wouldnt be on it. Yet.

Will worry about it in Feb/March, too many other prospects to end up in a rabbit hole on one - even if he is a QB

Fans of teams that need a QB upgrade are gonna think about him whether they should or not. I won't until sometime in April. Probably late April. I don't really care unless he goes to a situation that leaves me thinking 'good interesting.' The little poking around I did confirmed my preconceived bias. The height/weight and baseball/football stories are going to be beat the dead horse that beat the other dead horse. Not interested. Won't read. Will change channel. His tape? Doubt anything disclosed between now and then is going to change my mind about his potential and real flaws. It's just a matter of if those issues can be coached up and you won't learn anything more about that until at least September. Like Haskins, this is why 2018 was the year to shop for a QB. The likelihood of busting with the top 3 last year is/was substantially lower than this year.
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Markulous wrote:This is all true, however as mentioned earlier, it's unlikely he'll get paid as much in MLB as he would in the NFL on his second contract. If his attitude is either way it's a ton of money and I like both sports equally, then yeah absolutely go to baseball. If he wants to maximize how much money he gets, the NFL is probably a better opportunity unless he can really become a great batter.

Okay, one more baseball comment - the bolded isn't true. The if-then tree is quite large. Some outcomes lead to that conclusion. Some don't.
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I bet the average 5'8 MLB player makes more than the average 5'8 NFL QB.
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OarChambo wrote:
Markulous wrote:This is all true, however as mentioned earlier, it's unlikely he'll get paid as much in MLB as he would in the NFL on his second contract. If his attitude is either way it's a ton of money and I like both sports equally, then yeah absolutely go to baseball. If he wants to maximize how much money he gets, the NFL is probably a better opportunity unless he can really become a great batter.

Okay, one more baseball comment - the bolded isn't true. The if-then tree is quite large. Some outcomes lead to that conclusion. Some don't.

Is it not true that an average starting outfielder that is just average or below average at batting will make less money on average than an average starting QB on their non-rookie contract? He doesn't have to be an amazing QB to receive a record breaking deal in 3-4 years, see Flacco, Stafford, Cousins, etc.
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Markulous wrote:
OarChambo wrote:
Markulous wrote:This is all true, however as mentioned earlier, it's unlikely he'll get paid as much in MLB as he would in the NFL on his second contract. If his attitude is either way it's a ton of money and I like both sports equally, then yeah absolutely go to baseball. If he wants to maximize how much money he gets, the NFL is probably a better opportunity unless he can really become a great batter.

Okay, one more baseball comment - the bolded isn't true. The if-then tree is quite large. Some outcomes lead to that conclusion. Some don't.

Is it not true that an average starting outfielder that is just average or below average at batting will make less money on average than an average starting QB on their non-rookie contract? He doesn't have to be an amazing QB to receive a record breaking deal in 3-4 years, see Flacco, Stafford, Cousins, etc.

I think the if-then tree is way more complicated than that.

But to isolate one branch of it - I foresee the QB market getting flooded sometime in the next decade. To what degree? No clue, but it isn't going to be a supply > demand case for much longer. Now that pro teams are emerging from the stoneage and are adapting their schemes to the talent available rather than pigeon holing the talent to their scheme you're seeing more young QB's having success. You're also seeing teams realize the best window to compete for a championship is when the QB is on the rookie deal. If you're paying a QB then it better be to take you over the top. If you're paying for average (or worse) then the odds of you still being alive now are between slim and none.

Bad teams stay bad though. I get that. There will always be a few teams that can't do with their right arm what their left arm says to. But banking on that con job 4-5 years out if you are still interesting enough to start but not be a slam dunk 2nd contract...I think the guys coming into the league now will find that harder than a case like Cousins. They'd need to do like Flacco and get them a ring when he was scheduled to hit free agency.

And again, this is all assuming his bat doesn't translate - at all. Even in the worst case his likelihood of a good living in baseball is very high. Teams pay for his skill set, whether his bat sucks or not. Juan Lagares wasn't a drafted in a 40+ round first year baseball draft. He's never hit for anything. He doesn't walk. He's never had a double digit home run season - even in the minors. He's missed significant time every season. When he does make contact he his ground balls 50% of the time. So what does he do? He plays good defense in center field. And he turned that into $25 million. For a no-bat nothing prospect. This is Kyler Murray's worst case. And as a top 10 pick the likelihood of that happening is tiny.
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OarChambo wrote:
Markulous wrote:This is all true, however as mentioned earlier, it's unlikely he'll get paid as much in MLB as he would in the NFL on his second contract. If his attitude is either way it's a ton of money and I like both sports equally, then yeah absolutely go to baseball. If he wants to maximize how much money he gets, the NFL is probably a better opportunity unless he can really become a great batter.

Okay, one more baseball comment - the bolded isn't true. The if-then tree is quite large. Some outcomes lead to that conclusion. Some don't.


From a total money standpoint:

MLB has 30 teams each of which spend anywhere from $225M to $40M with the average being $117M in 2018.
NFL has 32 teams which spend an average of $167M in 2018.


From a distribution standpoint.
QB is the top paying position in the NFL. Period.
Outfielder is only the #3 paying position in the MLB, behind Pitcher and First Base.


That said, Kyler Murray is a top athlete, period. Rumor is he can run a 4.38 dash. If he can track a fly ball and catch well he'd probably ascend to a top center outfielder quickly.

On the flip side, despite his height, how many NFL teams will salivate at a 4.38 40 yard dash QB who can throw on the run almost as accurate as Patrick Mahomes?
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jnadke wrote:Outfielder is only the #3 paying position in the MLB, behind Pitcher and First Base.

I keep trying to get out and you all keep drawing me back in.

This needs context. First, I don't know if you're referring to OF or CF. If you're referring to just OF (first, *punch*) that means nothing. What do LF's and RF's that can't hit get paid? They don't exist. So I'm gonna assume you mean CF. And why aren't CF paid higher on the scale? Because there aren't many good ones right now. Complete CF's get paid big dollars for lots of years. CF's that can't hit certainly don't get paid big dollars, but given the scarcity of them they still get generational wealth.

There are more great QB's than great CF's. There are more good QB's than good CF's. There are more mediocre QB's than CF's. Etc. Supply v. Demand.
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OarChambo wrote:
jnadke wrote:Outfielder is only the #3 paying position in the MLB, behind Pitcher and First Base.

I keep trying to get out and you all keep drawing me back in.

This needs context. First, I don't know if you're referring to OF or CF. If you're referring to just OF (first, *punch*) that means nothing. What do LF's and RF's that can't hit get paid? They don't exist. So I'm gonna assume you mean CF. And why aren't CF paid higher on the scale? Because there aren't many good ones right now. Complete CF's get paid big dollars for lots of years. CF's that can't hit certainly don't get paid big dollars, but given the scarcity of them they still get generational wealth.

There are more great QB's than great CF's. There are more good QB's than good CF's. There are more mediocre QB's than CF's. Etc. Supply v. Demand.


A lot of hypotheticals in your statement. It assumes he becomes the Top 5 at his position and he plays for a big spending team.


Fact #1: The #18 Center Fielder in the MLB makes $3.125M average in 2018.
Fact #2: The #18 QB in the NFL made $16M in 2018 (Tyrod Taylor).

A mediocre player in baseball makes about as much as a backup QB in the NFL made last year.

The issue is, in baseball teams don't pay for positional depth outside of pitcher. A MLB roster is 40 players, but if you're not in the lineup/field you get paid jack.
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And unless something has changed recently, aren't the A's still a fairly low-spending team?
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jnadke wrote:
OarChambo wrote:
jnadke wrote:Outfielder is only the #3 paying position in the MLB, behind Pitcher and First Base.

I keep trying to get out and you all keep drawing me back in.

This needs context. First, I don't know if you're referring to OF or CF. If you're referring to just OF (first, *punch*) that means nothing. What do LF's and RF's that can't hit get paid? They don't exist. So I'm gonna assume you mean CF. And why aren't CF paid higher on the scale? Because there aren't many good ones right now. Complete CF's get paid big dollars for lots of years. CF's that can't hit certainly don't get paid big dollars, but given the scarcity of them they still get generational wealth.

There are more great QB's than great CF's. There are more good QB's than good CF's. There are more mediocre QB's than CF's. Etc. Supply v. Demand.


A lot of hypotheticals in your statement.

I know, as I said earlier the if-then tree is incredibly complex. It's why I tried to slide out of the topic. There are too many variables to paint a clear picture right now. You guys hooked me with some comments I took exception to though.

Ultimately, his future earnings as a QB? Shrug. His future earnings as a CF? Shrug. The range and likelihoods within are incredibly wide with both of them. But the decision needs to be made now. In the end the correct decision right now is inconclusive and the only way it can become conclusive in the next several years is if he's not an early round pick in April or completely bombs at the sport he chooses...and even that's probably not gonna be known before 2021 - and both of those appear unlikely right now. Unless he falls in the draft because of his lack of commitment. See, even more if-then's...variables...ah, hell.

Hopefully I don't get hooked again.
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Markulous wrote:And unless something has changed recently, aren't the A's still a fairly low-spending team?

There's that damn hook again.

Will he make a fortune from the Oakland A's? Probably not. Will the Oakland A's still be a thing when he's due to get hypotehtically paid? Who knows. What are the odds he's talking to the A's when he's looking to get paid? Slim. What are the odds he's even on the A's when that time comes? A lot lower than non-baseball fans realize.

Variables, variables, variables...no answers.