2019 Rookie Dynasty Discussion

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Wouldn’t the same level of play produce the same results?
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Elmagister wrote:
rugger48 wrote:Still don’t think they are the same team without Brady. 70 y/o bb is going to get tge same production unlesss they find someone who can play.

Huge difference between them winning without him in the lineup, and them getting the same production/level of play.


No one said they "are the same team" without TB either tho.

Whomever it is under C isnt going to lead to the precipitous drop off it could be on other teams (OAK: Peterman, for example).

Thats even before any talent discussion ref Harry (some WRs can be QB proof. Im not saying Harrys one, thats for others, only pointing it out as a potential outcome not linked to Brady/NEP QB)

For parity?

I will add that the moment anyone starts talking formulae & %ages vs projections ... to project a rookie WR ... as better than ODB? Im probably tapping out of that one too.
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If this Z score was so amazeballs?

Why do so many good players have such god awful scores?

Image
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thats kind of my point, does every potential player have be compared to elite level talent.
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rugger48 wrote:thats kind of my point, does every potential player have be compared to elite level talent.


I hope not.

But i dont see it goign away, do you?

Its just a shorthand way of getting a point across. Im not a huge fan. I know others arent either (causes as many problems as it solves), but i think we're going to have to get over it :)

On a sidenote id be wary of any "system" projecting "success" that will help ppl "dominate" their draft.

Method

To avoid the dangers of tunnel vision, a z-score takes into account a wide breadth of factors that each carry their own appropriate weight. By having this balance, it tempers projections for those who score very high in a particular area (e.g. elite catching radius), but low in another (e.g. poor college production), along with rewarding or punishing those who do well or poor in multiple categories. Understanding when to use a pure linear correlation versus threshold indicators for each factor is equally as important. These factors consist of the following:

Draft position
Collegiate career dominator rating per game played
Market share of receiving yards in their final collegiate season
Hand size thresholds
Arm length thresholds
Altered Height Adjusted Speed Score (HaSS)
Offensive production and quarterback stability of NFL team they are drafted by from prior year
Breakout Age
Disqualifying Thresholds


Basically ... youre telling me that: if a player produces well in college .... is an athletic specimen ... lands on a prolific team ... w/a stable QB situation ... and that same team invests very highly in him?

Then theres a good chance he'll succeed?

My God! This could revolutionise the game, man!! :shock: :D

(Not trying to bust anyones balls btw - this only some gentle humour in the lull of the season!! :thumbright: )
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jamcutpost wrote:If this Z score was so amazeballs?

Why do so many good players have such god awful scores?

Image


As far as one stat fits all, it's pretty good. Obviously it's not perfect; but Z score is hardly the only thing that loves N'keal Harry. And is a middling Z-score really relevant when N'keal's Z-score is elite? The top 16 Z-scores have all hit, and there are some names there that aren't exactly obvious.
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Anyone who thinks Harry is elite clearly didn’t watch him play much at ASU.

Harry won’t even be the best NFL player drafted from his school this year, much less the best WR.
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SJSwarm wrote:Anyone who thinks Harry is elite clearly didn’t watch him play much at ASU.

Harry won’t even be the best NFL player drafted from his school this year, much less the best WR.

idk about elite but I'd put him right there with Juju. i only watched a few ASU games.
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Killa CAM CAN!! wrote:
SJSwarm wrote:Anyone who thinks Harry is elite clearly didn’t watch him play much at ASU.

Harry won’t even be the best NFL player drafted from his school this year, much less the best WR.

idk about elite but I'd put him right there with Juju. i only watched a few ASU games.


He’s not on JuJu’s planet. Harry is charmin soft.
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SJSwarm wrote:
Killa CAM CAN!! wrote:
SJSwarm wrote:Anyone who thinks Harry is elite clearly didn’t watch him play much at ASU.

Harry won’t even be the best NFL player drafted from his school this year, much less the best WR.

idk about elite but I'd put him right there with Juju. i only watched a few ASU games.


He’s not on JuJu’s planet. Harry is charmin soft.


Spreading misinformation to get Harry in your rookie draft? There is nothing soft about his game. And he looked phenomenal at ASU with a higher playmaker rate than Marquise Brown.

Dude was a man amongst boys.
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Go watch Harry’s vs Colorado, Arizona and Oregon State and tell me that is an elite NFL WR1.

For those that don’t follow the Pac 12, those were the 3 worst teams in the entire conference. Harry’s averages against those 3 pitiful teams? 4 catches 64 yards 0 TDS per game.

He sure lit up UTSA tho!
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SJSwarm wrote:Go watch Harry’s vs Colorado, Arizona and Oregon State and tell me that is an elite NFL WR1.

For those that don’t follow the Pac 12, those were the 3 worst teams in the entire conference. Harry’s averages against those 3 pitiful teams? 4 catches 64 yards 0 TDS per game.

He sure lit up UTSA tho!


You could selectively pick out games where elite receivers didn't produce for any draft pick. The hollistic view of his games shows a clearly elite receiver. Not all of his big games came against poor competition :lol:
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zuggyawesome wrote:
Spreading misinformation to get Harry in your rookie draft? There is nothing soft about his game. And he looked phenomenal at ASU with a higher playmaker rate than Marquise Brown.

Dude was a man amongst boys.


Naw, I drafted Kevin White in a rookie draft already, I’m good.

He was a man amongst boys in exactly 2 games last year, and one of them was the aforementioned UTSA. He’s a #2 WR in the NFL at best.
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zuggyawesome wrote:
SJSwarm wrote:Go watch Harry’s vs Colorado, Arizona and Oregon State and tell me that is an elite NFL WR1.

For those that don’t follow the Pac 12, those were the 3 worst teams in the entire conference. Harry’s averages against those 3 pitiful teams? 4 catches 64 yards 0 TDS per game.

He sure lit up UTSA tho!


You could selectively pick out games where elite receivers didn't produce for any draft pick. The hollistic view of his games shows a clearly elite receiver. Not all of his big games came against poor competition :lol:


You clearly don’t watch much Pac 12 football.
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SJSwarm wrote:
zuggyawesome wrote:
SJSwarm wrote:Go watch Harry’s vs Colorado, Arizona and Oregon State and tell me that is an elite NFL WR1.

For those that don’t follow the Pac 12, those were the 3 worst teams in the entire conference. Harry’s averages against those 3 pitiful teams? 4 catches 64 yards 0 TDS per game.

He sure lit up UTSA tho!


You could selectively pick out games where elite receivers didn't produce for any draft pick. The hollistic view of his games shows a clearly elite receiver. Not all of his big games came against poor competition :lol:


You clearly don’t watch much Pac 12 football.


:lol: You probably also thought he'd run a 4.7 at the combine.
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