zuggyawesome wrote:Diontae Johnson - I know a many people know his name, but the guy should be in contention for the late first round. Much like Mecole Hardman, Diontae was the Steelers attempt at replacing their top passing option last season (AB). The similarities between the two are striking, they both aren't measurably very impressive athletes but they have the same electric running style that allows them to create a ton of separation out of their breaks and after the catch. Both play bigger than their size down the field when contesting at the catch point (a trait that all small, successful receivers have). And when you get to their production profiles it's truly striking. Both entered the NFL draft early, coming from the MAC. Both saw immediate early college success, AB had 1,000 yards in his true freshman season, Diontae had 1273 his sophmore year. Both were Special teams aces in addition to being the top dog in their receiving core. AB's production profile is slightly more impressive, but he also had the benefit of a future NFL backup QB his entire career (LeFevour) whereas Diontae only had Woodside for one year (and he exploded). There's no way I should be getting this guy in the 3rd round of some of my Rookie drafts.
Dexter Williams - He's mostly about landing spot. GB has no real draft capital invested in their RB core, and as much as I like Aaron Jones, the Pack have shown they don't like him as much as we do. Jamaal Williams will never be more than a plodding running back taking advantage of a great situation. Dexter isn't a great prospect (but he is a good one) and for RB's situation matters a lot more than talent. He belongs at least in the late 2nd, but I've gotten this guy in the last pick of the 4th round sometimes.
AB is a unicorn. There are lots of people with his traits that never amount to much of anything. I think comparing him to Hardman is fair because I think each of their teams were looking for a particular type. I think the comparisons end there though. Diontae's an interesting talent, but the bar isn't in the same zip code as AB.
I think Dexter can be justified anytime after the cliff I referenced earlier this month - one that I think Diontae is a part of. Pre-draft I had him as a top 5 RB that I did not expect to be drafted as a top 5 RB, but depending on his draft day cost and situation I may or may not prioritize him. I agree with you about the situation, but his actual cost removed him from priority consideration.
In both cases I don't disagree with you about the player but I don't agree with you about their value. I get their appeal, but I think late 2nd/early 3rd is about right for Diontae. And I think late 3rd/early 4th is about right for Dexter. If they were my best available in the late 1st (Diontae) and late 2nd (Dexter) then I'd try to trade out, target them about 10 picks later, and be at peace with it if I don't end up getting them.