2019 Sleepers/Breakout Candidates

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hawkdogger wrote:

You are really focused on BMI.


:lol: I'm concerned with durability and that's the only stat I know of that positively correlates with it (at least for RB's).

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... html?p=489
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zuggyawesome wrote:
jamcutpost wrote:
tsbgrayghost wrote:
You take that back!

Kumerow is gonna be a stud!!!


I take it back: Kumerow is the one guy im worried about

(And his roster spot :P )


Kumerow is by far my favorite receiver not named Davante Adams in the GB offense.

MVS and EQSTB are both physically more talented... but Aaron Rodgers has always preferred WR's that are in the right place at the right time... and that guy is Kumerow.


Using any combination, metric or permutation i can see, that aint something Kumerow has in spades vs anyone else on the team.

OFC, UDFA, 3rd team, 5th year in the league?

Maybe its our classic 5th yr breakout?

To each their own, but if he breakouts this year, i wont be reaping the benefits & GL to those that did.
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So, in trade talks (no names), was told Tarik Cohen is a top #10 RB

NB// The league does include KR/PR and is reception weighted, but for context he was #11 RB in 2018.

Just wanted to check and take a quick check - see if im off.

Do you guys see his value in 2019 vs 2018 (11th) as:

1. Increasing a lot
2. Increasing slightly
3. Same
4. Decreasing slightly
5. Decreasing a lot
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Decreasing, slightly to moderately. Last season was his ceiling.
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Cohen had a lot of lucky things happen last year. I'd say he's normally in the Austin Ekeler range without counting on all the fluke plays. If Montgomery can catch AT ALL Cohen has nowhere to go but down IMO.
Last edited by SJSwarm on Wed 05.08.2019, 17:39, edited 1 time in total.
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But to be fair, if I owned him in a dynasty I'd demand top 11 RB value back in a trade too. Shoot your shot. :lol:
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jamcutpost wrote:So, in trade talks (no names), was told Tarik Cohen is a top #10 RB

NB// The league does include KR/PR and is reception weighted, but for context he was #11 RB in 2018.

Just wanted to check and take a quick check - see if im off.

Do you guys see his value in 2019 vs 2018 (11th) as:

1. Increasing a lot
2. Increasing slightly
3. Same
4. Decreasing slightly
5. Decreasing a lot


Cohen was RB9 2018 in TFO through to Week 17, just above David Johnson and Joe Mixon. RB8 through to Week 16. RB11 through to Week 16 in 2017.

His situation is the same. Neither Montgomery or Davis are a threat to his role. No coaching changes of any note. WR core remains the same. Maybe Cordarelle gets some work but I will put that one in the 'see it to believe it' camp.

I can understand the thought that he has hit his ceiling, 71 receptions (and 8 total TDs) is a lot, but in now way is he Austin Ekeler, you want Tarik Cohen on your PPR team.
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In his last two seasons in the league Jason Witten was a TE1. Because he played every game. So while I get that he was RB_ through X games is fact I think basing rankings off it is a mistake. It's more nuanced than that. i.e. unlike Howard, Montgomery and Davis have passing game chops. I'm months away from rankings, but Cohen isn't going to be anywhere near top 12. If you own him and price him accordingly then you will probably still have him week 1.
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jamcutpost wrote:
Using any combination, metric or permutation i can see, that aint something Kumerow has in spades vs anyone else on the team.

OFC, UDFA, 3rd team, 5th year in the league?

Maybe its our classic 5th yr breakout?

To each their own, but if he breakouts this year, i wont be reaping the benefits & GL to those that did.


Aaron Rodgers was heaping him with praise all off season last year; then got injured and spent most of the year on the PUP list.

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2018/0 ... ers-trust/
https://www.12up.com/posts/6228774-aaro ... he-packers

Rodgers is not the type to blow smoke up his receivers' rump. And when the chance to hit on any of these guys is slim, I'll choose the guy that Rodgers has pointed at repeatedly as the guy to watch.
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zuggyawesome wrote:
jamcutpost wrote:
Using any combination, metric or permutation i can see, that aint something Kumerow has in spades vs anyone else on the team.

OFC, UDFA, 3rd team, 5th year in the league?

Maybe its our classic 5th yr breakout?

To each their own, but if he breakouts this year, i wont be reaping the benefits & GL to those that did.


Aaron Rodgers was heaping him with praise all off season last year; then got injured and spent most of the year on the PUP list.

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2018/0 ... ers-trust/
https://www.12up.com/posts/6228774-aaro ... he-packers

Rodgers is not the type to blow smoke up his receivers' rump. And when the chance to hit on any of these guys is slim, I'll choose the guy that Rodgers has pointed at repeatedly as the guy to watch.


He did the same to Robert Tonyan

Ill probably own an equal amount of shares in Tonyan as Kumerow
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jamcutpost wrote:
He did the same to Robert Tonyan

Ill probably own an equal amount of shares in Tonyan as Kumerow


I didn't read any offseason articles about Rodgers bloviating over Tonyan, but I might've missed it. Also didn't find anything with the quick google search because of that stupid 54 yard TD on a broken play :lol:
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zuggyawesome wrote:
jamcutpost wrote:
He did the same to Robert Tonyan

Ill probably own an equal amount of shares in Tonyan as Kumerow


I didn't read any offseason articles about Rodgers bloviating over Tonyan, but I might've missed it. Also didn't find anything with the quick google search because of that stupid 54 yard TD on a broken play :lol:


Is that the one where he threw to him and he "couldnt even see him"? :)

And Geronimo Allison is another Rodgers has hyped up

ARod, Sept 19th, 2018 wrote:“G-Mo, I’ve always had a lot of confidence in him, he’s a great teammate, he has a great professional work ethic, he’s prepared, he knows the offense really well, and that’s the starting point of any type of trust is the mental part. So I expect him to be in the right spot and to run the routes the right way and if he’s open, he’ll get the ball”


USA Today, Packers Wires, Sept 25, 2018 wrote:After three games, Allison leads the Packers in receiving yards (209), yards per catch (16.1) and catches over 20 yards (three).

Not only has Allison been productive, but he’s been efficient: Aaron Rodgers has a perfect passer rating (158.3) when targeting him this season.

Rodgers’ numbers when throwing to Allison in 2018: 12 of 15 for 207 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions.


If youre after a GBP breakout player its one from Allison, MVS or St Brown - for me personally.

And ive no clue which.

You say Kumerow? Who knows, i dont. On the plus side, i think youre likely targeting the one that the least ppl will opt for, so thats no bad thing.
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theoutlawdekepatton wrote:His situation is the same. Neither Montgomery or Davis are a threat to his role. No coaching changes of any note. WR core remains the same. Maybe Cordarelle gets some work but I will put that one in the 'see it to believe it' camp.

I can understand the thought that he has hit his ceiling


This is where wed disagree. A lot
This is where wed disagree. Wildly
This is where we agree. A lot.

The only way Cohen isnt negatively impacted is if this is 2018 :D

His situation is NOT the same:

    Let go the plodding/ non receiving RB
    Had TWELVE different RBs in for visits pre-draft
    Drafted 2 x RBs
    Drafted 1 x Slot WR w/YAC ability
    Acquired FA w/YAC ability

Cohen isnt going anywhere, but its also abundantly clear that he made the best of Howards shortcomings in the game and the struggles w/CHIs passing O as a whole.

Its like Evans ridonculous TD season. Evans is a good player, but that season was his Apex & not representative of his actual value because it was due to a confluence of events (No run game, no D, no other WRs)

Montgomery isnt a threat to Cohens touches

Tom Manning wrote:“They both catch the ball really well out of the backfield, they’re a little bit different in their running styles but there’s some similarities, they’re obviously built a lot alike and I think (they have) the same kind of style, they have the ability to make people miss, they’re smooth in their transitions and they have the ability to put a shoulder down and play calm and be a physical runner and then they both do a great job with catching the football.

“There are some clips that you can go back and forth and watch and say man, kind of reminds me of Kareem. And you go back cuts from (Hunt) too and you’re like man, that’s kind of strange, it looks a little like David there in that sense. They’re different, but I do think there are some similarities.”

I could see why people would like him as far as the National Football League goes because he does have the ability to No. 1 catch the ball out of the backfield, but David also has pretty good route running skills,he has the ability to line up outside the formation and run good routes.

“… I don’t want to say it’s natural ability because he’s worked at it, but he catches the ball very well, has very soft hands, has really, really good feet and has the ability to run routes. I think obviously that translates to that league, finding ways to get mismatches on linebackers and those sorts of things. But yeah, I think he’ll be utilized in a variety of ways and he’ll do a great job in Chicago with what they do offensively. I see David fitting very well in that system.”


Tom Manning, Schmanning! Pff, whos he to know anything, right?

Well ... He was Montgomery's OC at Iowa (Biased!), but he was also Kareem Hunts OC at Toledo.

So, hes actually MORE qualified than Nagy to compare Montgomery & Hunt.

Matt Nagy wrote:“He’s the whole package, He has the hands. He’s a three-down back. He’s everything we were looking for.”

Just to reiterate, Nagy was Hunts OC in KCC & that Howard was no 3 down back was he?

Ryan Pace wrote:“We felt comfortable with that, I would say he has natural hands. He’s good out of the backfield. We’re very comfortable with the total package he brings.”

Monty had a 9% share of the Cyclones passing attack in 2018. That may not sound like much.

But it was 2nd best for Rbs in the draft class and ahead of Saunders & Henderson.

I think most of us know what Hunts usage was in KCC - even with Hill & Chacandrick there, he was productive. In ALL phases and used in a variety of ways - not just Howards vacated N/S role.

Code: Select all
                                                                       
                                Rush Rush Rush Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece
No.              Player Age Pos  Att  Yds   TD  Tgt  Rec  Yds  Y/R   TD
87        Travis Kelce*  28  TE    2    7    0  122   83 1038 12.5    8
10         Tyreek Hill*  23  WR   17   59    0  105   75 1183 15.8    7
27         Kareem Hunt*  22  RB  272 1327    8   63   53  455  8.6    3
12        Albert Wilson  25  wr    3    6    0   62   42  554 13.2    3
35    Charcandrick West      26   18   72    2   34   27  150  5.6    2
             Team Total    26.3  405 1903   12  528  363 4326 11.9   26
                      Opp Total  443 1890        15  325 3952 12.2   23


The problem CHI have is that theyre personnel tips their hand:

    If Howard was on the field? Hes not catching a pass & likely not running outside the hashes.
    If Cohen is on the field? The opposite.

Matt Nagy, post draft wrote:‘‘It’s about mismatches, you take a guy out of the backfield . . . is it a safety [defending]? Is it a linebacker? Are they playing base defense vs. a guy that we think we can get an advantage in the pass game? Great. Are they gonna play nickel or dime and dare us to run the ball? Well, when you have guys who can play all three downs, it’s nice for the play-caller.’’


With Howard, the hand was tipped off the bat.

Now? You put montgomery on the field and take Cohen off? You wont know. You have both backs on? You still wont know now, either.

But both clearly DILUTE Cohens production - and thats the problem.

Ill make this clear, Cohen is going nowhere. Hes too good to disappear, but assuming Montgomery isnt a bust? There are only two outcomes here:

    1) Monty ends up outperforming Howard (Not too difficult).
    2) It ends up being a "PHI 16/ 17/ 18" situation RB wise.

Those both mean regression from his current ceiling, which was born of a perfect storm.

NB: I didnt list Montgomery's usage being akin to Hunts as an option. It is. Id rather keep possibilities limited and tempered though.

Also worth pointing out the passing game was fine - but it wasnt supersonic either. There is easily room for improvement there too, which would also have ramifications to the RB #s

Whoever said Ekeler? Yep, 100%

Ekeler was top 20 & Ekeler hasnt had the upheaval at RB CHI have and is in a settled passing O. You put Ekelers name into the passage i quoted from Deke & remove the other names and that passage would make perfect sense

If anyone is serious about trading Cohen, then you are either looking at "Ekeler" prices or not trading him at all.
Last edited by jamcutpost on Thu 05.09.2019, 05:59, edited 4 times in total.
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SJSwarm wrote:Cohen had a lot of lucky things happen last year. I'd say he's normally in the Austin Ekeler range without counting on all the fluke plays. If Montgomery can catch AT ALL Cohen has nowhere to go but down IMO.


Thats pretty much where im at.

And yep, Ekeler comp a good one.

As would be Gordon usage vs the usage id predict for Montgomery
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Nagy on Monty @Mini camp wrote:“I thought he handled himself great, he looks like he’s in great shape. Caught the ball really well. These camps aren’t too big on running, so it’s a lot of receiving, and I was really impressed.”
https://bearswire.usatoday.com/2019/05/04/david-montgomery-flashes-receiving-skills-at-bears-rookie-minicamp/

Theres a reason they traded up for him
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