Fraud Gurley

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rugger48 wrote:To be fair the news is starting early , I’m guessing his stock will fall as time goes on. We’re going to hear about it in camp, most ff sites are going to push it. So I think he might actually be a good price come a month before the start of the season.


Of course , we could hear from rams coaches that this isn’t that big of an issue.....

This 'news' isnt new news. And you're not gonna learn anything more of substance until after games start.
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No , but it’s being pushed more now.
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rugger48 wrote:No , but it’s being pushed more now.

Well, yeah. Clearly wherever early adp's were generating from was full of people not paying attention. Cause this top 20 talk is laughable. Of course you're avoiding at that cost. And of course that isn't going to be his going rate. Nor should have it ever been anytime in the last several months.
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...


you could draft and dump after a big late season game


...
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Yea.

I’ve got a choice to make.

I can keep him in my keeper league.
But I give up my first round pick.
I need to keep my eye on this.
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hawkdogger wrote:Yea.

I’ve got a choice to make.

I can keep him in my keeper league.
But I give up my first round pick.
I need to keep my eye on this.

It seems like an easy choice to make at face value. What kind of player would be his likely replacement with that 1st round pick?
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mattbbpl wrote:
hawkdogger wrote:Yea.

I’ve got a choice to make.

I can keep him in my keeper league.
But I give up my first round pick.
I need to keep my eye on this.

It seems like an easy choice to make at face value. What kind of player would be his likely replacement with that 1st round pick?



It's a bit off a blind bargain because teams can keep up to two keepers but forfeit their top draft pick for each.

But I have to think it's worth a shot to keep him. If he's the real Gurley and I keep him and McCaffrey, I can win it all.
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hawkdogger wrote:
mattbbpl wrote:
hawkdogger wrote:Yea.

I’ve got a choice to make.

I can keep him in my keeper league.
But I give up my first round pick.
I need to keep my eye on this.

It seems like an easy choice to make at face value. What kind of player would be his likely replacement with that 1st round pick?



It's a bit off a blind bargain because teams can keep up to two keepers but forfeit their top draft pick for each.

But I have to think it's worth a shot to keep him. If he's the real Gurley and I keep him and McCaffrey, I can win it all.


I would think of it this way, that 1st rounder is probably worth a 2nd/3rd realistically with the keeper rules.

You have to keep those two, no question. If it ends up being wrong, so be it.
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I think that’s right.
I go big or go home.

Besides. There seems to be no real news yet.
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I'm admittedly risk adverse to a fault, but there's no way I'm drafting a known problem in the 2nd or 3rd. There comes a time and a place to actively seek out problems on your rooster, but it isn't that early. Problems will find themselves, quickly, like they do every season. Drafting into problems is reckless and usually just ends badly.

But maybe I should be more actively shopping "Fraud."
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I think it's totally reasonable to drop his spot in redrafts, but I can't really see changing much (right now anyway) in keepers.

I do think that if you have him in keeper/dyno you need to more strongly consider that he may only be 'good' for you through the first 10-12 weeks after which you need a reasonable 3rd option to replace him in your lineups with.

I'm not convinced that option is one of his handcuffs, but the value of those guys is likely to be higher than it 'should' be due to skepticism about how long Gurley will last this season. I know in my dyno where I have Gurley I'll be looking to add Henderson there, but the bench is pretty deep so it's not a bad thing to have a couple 'next year' guys kicking around. In leagues with shorter benches I think it's a harder add, but, as always, it depends on your team and league situation.
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ubertaco wrote:I think it's totally reasonable to drop his spot in redrafts, but I can't really see changing much (right now anyway) in keepers.

I do think that if you have him in keeper/dyno you need to more strongly consider that he may only be 'good' for you through the first 10-12 weeks after which you need a reasonable 3rd option to replace him in your lineups with.

I'm not convinced that option is one of his handcuffs, but the value of those guys is likely to be higher than it 'should' be due to skepticism about how long Gurley will last this season. I know in my dyno where I have Gurley I'll be looking to add Henderson there, but the bench is pretty deep so it's not a bad thing to have a couple 'next year' guys kicking around. In leagues with shorter benches I think it's a harder add, but, as always, it depends on your team and league situation.

Gurley owners need to prepare for him to not be useful beginning week 2. Not week 10-12.
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OarChambo wrote:
ubertaco wrote:I think it's totally reasonable to drop his spot in redrafts, but I can't really see changing much (right now anyway) in keepers.

I do think that if you have him in keeper/dyno you need to more strongly consider that he may only be 'good' for you through the first 10-12 weeks after which you need a reasonable 3rd option to replace him in your lineups with.

I'm not convinced that option is one of his handcuffs, but the value of those guys is likely to be higher than it 'should' be due to skepticism about how long Gurley will last this season. I know in my dyno where I have Gurley I'll be looking to add Henderson there, but the bench is pretty deep so it's not a bad thing to have a couple 'next year' guys kicking around. In leagues with shorter benches I think it's a harder add, but, as always, it depends on your team and league situation.

Gurley owners need to prepare for him to not be useful beginning week 2. Not week 10-12.


Meh...

Any owner of any player needs to prepare for that.

But chances of Gurley going from 20+ touches a game to 12-15 is much more likely than him going to zero.

Yes, his value is diminished, but if he's already on your roster you're keeping him short of some new news which indicates otherwise.

Then again, I like to live a bit dangerously in FF I suppose. I'd rather take the flier on the high upside guy than just keep on handcuffing guys I have. Sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't.
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3 headed monster incoming,workload dramatically down graded running/rec and on top of that the knee flare ups and multiple missing games

m.bown inside runner
henderson scat back runner/rec
john kelly a little of both
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ubertaco wrote:
OarChambo wrote:
ubertaco wrote:I think it's totally reasonable to drop his spot in redrafts, but I can't really see changing much (right now anyway) in keepers.

I do think that if you have him in keeper/dyno you need to more strongly consider that he may only be 'good' for you through the first 10-12 weeks after which you need a reasonable 3rd option to replace him in your lineups with.

I'm not convinced that option is one of his handcuffs, but the value of those guys is likely to be higher than it 'should' be due to skepticism about how long Gurley will last this season. I know in my dyno where I have Gurley I'll be looking to add Henderson there, but the bench is pretty deep so it's not a bad thing to have a couple 'next year' guys kicking around. In leagues with shorter benches I think it's a harder add, but, as always, it depends on your team and league situation.

Gurley owners need to prepare for him to not be useful beginning week 2. Not week 10-12.


Meh...

Any owner of any player needs to prepare for that.

But chances of Gurley going from 20+ touches a game to 12-15 is much more likely than him going to zero.

Yes, his value is diminished, but if he's already on your roster you're keeping him short of some new news which indicates otherwise.

Not where I was going - his knee isn't ever going to be the same. Can it be managed? Maybe, maybe not. And maybe not could be realized as early as quarter 1 week 1.
ubertaco wrote:Then again, I like to live a bit dangerously in FF I suppose. I'd rather take the flier on the high upside guy than just keep on handcuffing guys I have. Sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't.

But this is a fair point. As I wrote before I'm risk adverse at the top of my rooster. It leads to never having the best team week 1, but my goal isn't to have the best team week 1. It's to have a team capable of winning it all by October/November. I find that's best achieved minimizing risk building the core then taking shots later and actively churning the bottom of the depth chart.