Fraud Gurley

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zuggyawesome wrote:
und2006 wrote:In redraft its Gurley or a 1st round talent. In a keeper situation its Gurley or a 3rd round talent.

Not the same situation.


3rd round is where I see Gurley as a reasonable pick; but I'll still be avoiding him till the 4th which means I'll probably own Gurley in 0 leagues, and I'm ok with that.

Everyone keeps talking, "upside, upside, upside". Besides the fact that I don't think his upside is nearly as high this year as years past (there's been far too much smoke this season for there not to be at best a reduced workload); is his upside really that much higher than Chubb, Dalvin, Mixon, Gordon? I don't think so. Even without all of these knee issues I wouldn't have batted an eye if those guys finished above Gurley this year. Hell even Damien Williams, Derrick Henry beating them out wouldn't have surprised me all that much. The reason Gurley would've been chosen ahead of them is the likelihood he'd be higher than them.. with all of this uncertainty surrounding him that chance has been reduced dropping his value position for this year. As far as Dynasty is concerned, there's no way in hell he should be a 2nd round pick over these guys.



You wouldn’t be surprised if guys mixon, cook, chubb, Henry, Damien Williams finishes ahead of him, even without the knee issues? I’m sorry I must be reading this wrong.


I don’t have a problem if you think that with the knee issues.
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rugger48 wrote:
zuggyawesome wrote:
und2006 wrote:In redraft its Gurley or a 1st round talent. In a keeper situation its Gurley or a 3rd round talent.

Not the same situation.


3rd round is where I see Gurley as a reasonable pick; but I'll still be avoiding him till the 4th which means I'll probably own Gurley in 0 leagues, and I'm ok with that.

Everyone keeps talking, "upside, upside, upside". Besides the fact that I don't think his upside is nearly as high this year as years past (there's been far too much smoke this season for there not to be at best a reduced workload); is his upside really that much higher than Chubb, Dalvin, Mixon, Gordon? I don't think so. Even without all of these knee issues I wouldn't have batted an eye if those guys finished above Gurley this year. Hell even Damien Williams, Derrick Henry beating them out wouldn't have surprised me all that much. The reason Gurley would've been chosen ahead of them is the likelihood he'd be higher than them.. with all of this uncertainty surrounding him that chance has been reduced dropping his value position for this year. As far as Dynasty is concerned, there's no way in hell he should be a 2nd round pick over these guys.



You wouldn’t be surprised if guys mixon, cook, chubb, Henry, Damien Williams finishes ahead of him, even without the knee issues? I’m sorry I must be reading this wrong.


I don’t have a problem if you think that with the knee issues.


Historically speaking, the 1st running back drafted doesn't often finish at number 1. Guys like CMC, Todd Gurley, David Johnson, Chris Johnson, Devonta Freeman, Demarco Murray, Doug Martin, Ray Rice often jump up from the 2nd+ round to leap frog past the #1 ADP selection off of variance that falls their way.

The idea that you need to take a chance on Gurley because there's no way you'd have access to this kind of upside in the 2nd round is just false.
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Ok, and not to defend Gurley next season specifically, but if you can pick which guy is going to finish in the top 5 from outside the 1st round consistently then great.

Otherwise?

You have no actual idea about who is going to do what.
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ubertaco wrote:Ok, and not to defend Gurley next season specifically, but if you can pick which guy is going to finish in the top 5 from outside the 1st round consistently then great.

Otherwise?

You have no actual idea about who is going to do what.


Yes, and that's why Gurley would be the clear 1.01 if he were completely healthy. Because he would have the highest likelihood to finish there. Do you feel like the questions surrounding his knee have increased, decreased or not affected this likelihood? If you agree that it has negatively affected this chance, then has it dropped it to the point where the guys I mentioned above are more likely to finish there? I'd say yes.
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I don't think anyone is suggesting Gurley is or should be the 1.01, most people are suggesting to pass him entirely in the 1st round.

Otherwise I'm not quite sure what you and Rugger are arguing about.

My point is that you said historically the 1.01 doesn't finish at number one and someone from the 2nd round jumps up. Whether that's true or not seems kind of pointless since no one can predict what guy from the 2nd round is going to overperform (relative to ADP) and jump into the top 5 (or whatever) at their position for that season.
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ubertaco wrote:I don't think anyone is suggesting Gurley is or should be the 1.01, most people are suggesting to pass him entirely in the 1st round.

Otherwise I'm not quite sure what you and Rugger are arguing about.

My point is that you said historically the 1.01 doesn't finish at number one and someone from the 2nd round jumps up. Whether that's true or not seems kind of pointless since no one can predict what guy from the 2nd round is going to overperform (relative to ADP) and jump into the top 5 (or whatever) at their position for that season.


My point is that you can get just as high of a ceiling with the other 2nd round running backs as you could with Gurley; and that the risk of drafting Gurley over the tier 2 of RB1's outweighs the rewards.
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That's fine, but again, I don't think anyone is disagreeing with that.

Other than people (like me I guess) who think Gurley is going to be 'ok', but I'm still not planning on taking him until the 2nd round.

Right now anyway. Still plenty of time for more information to change all out opinions again.
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Look, I’m just taking notice of the idea that those guys finish ahead of gurley even without the knee issue.
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I mean sure, if you want to go with “the #1 guy doesn’t do it again”. Rbs that usually do that it’s due to wear and tear, which he is seeing now. If he didn’t see the knee issue I can’t imagine he would fall off much.
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ubertaco wrote:That's fine, but again, I don't think anyone is disagreeing with that.

Other than people (like me I guess) who think Gurley is going to be 'ok', but I'm still not planning on taking him until the 2nd round.

Right now anyway. Still plenty of time for more information to change all out opinions again.


There are some well respected fantasy analysts who are advocating taking Gurley as high as pick 8 on the grounds that there's no way you'd have access to this kind of upside without the uncertainty and that Gurley is worth the risk... Which I obviously think is flawed logic for the reasons I highlighted earlier.
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Cadence calls wrote:Id rather have Josh Jacobs


Absolutely
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zuggyawesome wrote:
ubertaco wrote:That's fine, but again, I don't think anyone is disagreeing with that.

Other than people (like me I guess) who think Gurley is going to be 'ok', but I'm still not planning on taking him until the 2nd round.

Right now anyway. Still plenty of time for more information to change all out opinions again.


There are some well respected fantasy analysts who are advocating taking Gurley as high as pick 8 on the grounds that there's no way you'd have access to this kind of upside without the uncertainty and that Gurley is worth the risk... Which I obviously think is flawed logic for the reasons I highlighted earlier.


im sorry but if anyone has been in this business long enough, they'll know that these guys are full of sh1t just as much as the next guy

go on, sorry
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Todd Gurley's trainer confirmed the running back is dealing with an "arthritic component to his knee."

"Everybody knew when Todd came out of Georgia that there would be some kind of arthritic component to his knee," trainer Travelle Gaines told CBS Sports. "He's now at the year-five mark, all we're doing is managing that." Gaines also said he has not been told the Rams plan to limit Gurley's workload to keep him fresh, although their offseason moves paint a pretty clear picture. Gurley is a risk-reward pick early in the second round.


I'm happy this dude cashed in when he did
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Yeah, good for him for getting a paycheck.

Arthritis doesn't go away, so although I'd expect a "fresher" version of Gurley this year for him to heal his other ailments, we probably have seen the last of his bellcow days. Even taking him in the 2nd or 3rd rounds in a redraft is too optimistic. There are other guys there with more upside.
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The Rams have to be quite pissed about the contract they handed him.