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jamcutpost wrote:
/sigh. Lets try and get this right.

I own Cohen. In multiple leagues....I own Motgomery in? None. Neither dyna nor redraft.

I can provide links.

Also, if you actually look at everything ive posted over past cpl pages montgomery makes up the minority vs the the state fo the passing game last year and how bad Howard was.

Please check.

As far as i can tell youre making that very common mistake of not realising how much changes in an NFL offseason... and cherrypicking selective metrics to project onto this season - without actually accounting for all the changes.

Why not post your projections this year for Cohen & Montgomery and tell me if you think Arob & Miller have better seasons or not

Because unless Cohen finishes as the #1 overall leading receiver for the bears again, youre agreeing with me that his role is diminished this year & circumstances favoured him last year


It doesn't matter where/if you own either player. I'm seeing you speaking as though an NFL team is going to run it's offense from a fantasy perspective.

You continue to ignore 2017 for whatever reasons you may have, but 2017 demonstrates how Cohen was used on a John freaking Fox coached team. You project that because WRs and TEs will be, well, not sure what, but on the Bears? As opposed to the fact that Trubisky is a very mediocre to bad QB who can't throw the ball with much accuracy means that offense will suddenly ignore one of the more talented players they have who will get higher % chances for them to throw the ball to a still underwhelming group of WRs and TEs with a QB who isn't good at doing that in the first place? And, by the way, Cohen did not lead the Bears in TARGETS. He was 3rd. So still, you accuse me of cherrypicking when that's all you've done?

We can agree to disagree, which it appears we will need to do. You have simply not presented an interesting case for why Cohen will lose touches at the expense of Montgomery. It's possible (though seems rather unlikely) that all Bears RBs will lose targets to what ever group of WRs you think is magically going to make Trubisky look competent. Have you looked at the Bears WR corps?

Have you watched Trubisky try to read a defense or throw to a WR down field? Did you pay attention to the offense Nagy installed? I'm really not sure.

Oar then says that the O/U for Cohen touches per game is 10. You know what it was last year? 11. I'm not sure that's significantly different, and I see no reason why a smart coach like Nagy (or is he not a smart coach, seems smart to me) is going to ignore one of the most efficient players on his team, if not the league, to burn out a rookie or have a QB who struggles with down field accuracy air it out more often.

And, again, I'm not trying to suggest that Cohen is undervalued. I'm suggesting that it's unlikely that his usage changes significantly.
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ubertaco wrote:You continue to ignore 2017 for whatever reasons you may have, but 2017 demonstrates how Cohen was used on a John freaking Fox coached team.

The Bears 2017 skill position players - Jordan Howard, Kendall Wright, Josh Bellamy, Dontrelle Inman, my brain hurts going this far so I'm going to stop now.
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OarChambo wrote:
ubertaco wrote:You continue to ignore 2017 for whatever reasons you may have, but 2017 demonstrates how Cohen was used on a John freaking Fox coached team.

The Bears 2017 skill position players - Jordan Howard, Kendall Wright, Josh Bellamy, Dontrelle Inman, my brain hurts going this far so I'm going to stop now.


And 2018 was that much better? No, it wasn't. Injuries be damned.
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ubertaco wrote:
OarChambo wrote:
ubertaco wrote:You continue to ignore 2017 for whatever reasons you may have, but 2017 demonstrates how Cohen was used on a John freaking Fox coached team.

The Bears 2017 skill position players - Jordan Howard, Kendall Wright, Josh Bellamy, Dontrelle Inman, my brain hurts going this far so I'm going to stop now.


And 2018 was that much better? No, it wasn't. Injuries be damned.

I think 2018 was better than 2017 and I think 2019 is better than 2018. I think it'll take a series of unfortunate events for him to eclipse last year's usage. I think 90% (plus) of it is in the range of potential outcomes, but I also think 60% of it is in it too.
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OarChambo wrote:
ubertaco wrote:
OarChambo wrote:The Bears 2017 skill position players - Jordan Howard, Kendall Wright, Josh Bellamy, Dontrelle Inman, my brain hurts going this far so I'm going to stop now.


And 2018 was that much better? No, it wasn't. Injuries be damned.

I think 2018 was better than 2017 and I think 2019 is better than 2018. I think it'll take a series of unfortunate events for him to eclipse last year's usage. I think 90% (plus) of it is in the range of potential outcomes, but I also think 60% of it is in it too.


And 110% is in play as well. But the crux of the disagreement with Jam isn't specifically over Cohens usage, it's Cohens usage dropping because Montgomery picks it up.

I don't think that's what you're saying as you seem to feel that the pass catching talent is improved (or available for 2019 as opposed to injured for 2018). To me that just ignores how poorly Trubisky reads defenses and throws downfield. But maybe he'll surprise me with growth in those areas. I don't expect the Bears to be exactly the same offense they were last year, but I don't expect them to reduce the already slight load one of their best players had.

Nagy is not John Fox. He's not going to load up on his 'stud' and ignore everything else.
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ubertaco wrote:
OarChambo wrote:I think 2018 was better than 2017 and I think 2019 is better than 2018. I think it'll take a series of unfortunate events for him to eclipse last year's usage. I think 90% (plus) of it is in the range of potential outcomes, but I also think 60% of it is in it too.


And 110% is in play as well. But the crux of the disagreement with Jam isn't specifically over Cohens usage, it's Cohens usage dropping because Montgomery picks it up.

I don't think that's what you're saying as you seem to feel that the pass catching talent is improved (or available for 2019 as opposed to injured for 2018). To me that just ignores how poorly Trubisky reads defenses and throws downfield. But maybe he'll surprise me with growth in those areas. I don't expect the Bears to be exactly the same offense they were last year, but I don't expect them to reduce the already slight load one of their best players had.

Nagy is not John Fox. He's not going to load up on his 'stud' and ignore everything else.

The problem with the bolded is they already showed they will. I got the decreased usage December last year until they got to the playoff game and gave him just 4 touches. Noting that caused me to go backwards through their season and look a little closer at how he was deployed. He was deployed heavily when they needed to. When they didn't his game-to-game touch totals:

8
5
8
6
8
14
12
13
10
7
8
4

I think that's what they want. Wants never mirror reality in this game, but it matters in August forecasting. Which is why I can't reconcile with an increased usage forecast. I think that's similarly as likely as Jarvis Landry maintaining his pre-Freddie Kitchens target share.
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I'm still not sure what you are trying to argue. The issue is number of touches, and of course it will vary more than it would for a lead back.

The conversation was about how many of those touches would be redistributed to Montgomery.

I would guess the number of those is zero. I would also think that it's entirely possible for Cohen to see slightly more touches than he had last year. it's possible he sees fewer as well of course. Your earlier projection of 10 is basically in line with the 11 he saw over both his seasons in the league.

Not that I think either is likely to happen, but I would rather bet on Cohen seeing a lot more usage vs. seeing almost no usage. Whether that's due to injuries on the team or something else doesn't really matter. Of course, he could also get hurt, but that's sort of neither here nor there.
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I feel like Mike Davis is going to get more touches than he's getting mentions in this thread. But if he doesn't, it's going to be because of Montgomery's successes.
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jamcutpost wrote:
zuggyawesome wrote:Cohen is a threat out of the backfield in the passing game. In order to improve his quarterback’s efficiency, he should be looked at early and often this season. He finished fourth among running backs by combining for 30 first downs and touchdowns through the air. He averaged 7.6 yards after the catch and forced 16 missed tackles on 71 receptions. With rookie David Montgomery the likely team leader in carries, Cohen’s best usage should come via the passing game, which should help Trubisky.

Finishing as the second-most valuable running back per PFF’s WAR metric, Cohen is a prime example of an NFL back with high-end successes across nearly all of our advanced receiving stats. He led all qualifying backs in yards per route run (2.37), logged just one drop and recorded an impressive 111.0 passer rating when targeted.

He also graded out as the #10 RB via PFF last season (that's as a running back, not just as a receiving back).


Qu: Where did CHI rank as unit. Offensively. As a whole last season?

zuggyawesome wrote:As for why this would affect his usage: I mentioned this earlier as well, but why wouldn't they give such an efficient RB as many touches as he can handle? Is it possible that Montgomery is as efficient? Sure, but given his lack of athleticism and Cohen's phenomenal efficiency in that area the odds are stacked against him.


zuggyawesome wrote:And... close games generally are not positive game scripts for 3rd down backs. I think we can both agree that teams pass more when they're trying to lengthen the game in comeback mode, correct?


Maybe im missing it, but that requoted post doesnt explain what your definition of effiency is.

I probably am missing it, but maybe you mean "Productive per touch". That says what it means.

All i read here is how he improved the QB efficiency.

Efficiency is used by a lot of FF ppl and they all use it differently.

--------------------------

zuggyawesome wrote:The bears spent a lot of FA money to hoard receiving talent last offseason. Even with those injuries they still had some combination of Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, Taylor Gabriel, Trey Burton to catch passes. They had the depth to absorb injuries.. so I just don't agree that they were ever in dire need of a RB to take those receptions; much more likely those targets went to Cohen because his talent deserved them, imo


Talent.

Thats THE most likely reason...No other ... that Cohen got a lot of checkdowns, bubbles and screens?

zuggyawesome wrote:Trubisquette reminds me way too much of Bortles. He was way more productive in college so his ceiling is significantly higher but I've shied away from that entire passing attack. Otherwise I'd be all over Allen Robinson and Andre Miller at their current ADPs


So, you wouldnt touch it, because hes not very good, but, Cohen got those TGTs based primarily on talent & not a QBs Bortles-esque inability to get it even as far as his slot WR Miller, but they didnt NEED a pass catchign RB last year (in spite of Howard and a QB that cant get it to their slot) :-k :-k

To recap 2018 bears O, for whats hopefully the last time:

    "Bortlesque" Sophomore QB
    You wouldnt even trust to throw to his slot (Miller)
    Learning a new Scheme
    Who had a shoulder inj for the final 1/4 of the season (missed 2 games)
    A rotation @WR/TE (Chemistry)
    A poor RB1
    Who came off on 3rd down & lost some of the other two sporadically too
    Traded for a conditional 6th & not gtd to be the starter on the new team either

Dont know about anyone else, but that sounds to me, like eactly the sort of team that WOULD use a pass catching RB - esp w/Nagy as a HC/OC

Some might call a perfect storm for Cohen. You disagree obviously, c'est la vie. Fair to say i disagree that "talent" was the primary factor that got him 71 recs.

-------------------------------


I think its also fair to ask you think the general rules youd apply to WR1 or RB1 differentiations and gamescript affect non-WR1 & non-RB1 players.

Especially in the modern game.

Whether its a satellite/ scat/ 3rd down/ HB/ FB/ Slot/ Joker/ Move/ TE/ Slot/ Big slot or any other denomination. Its normal and gamescript neutral.

GS favoured Cohen last year because the leads were never big enough to risk Trubisky heaving it deep (esp after wk12 and the shoudler inj)

Having an OC like Nagy (History, playcalling) as well as Trubisky (Issues), i dont see why they wouldnt checkdown, bubble/ screen and slant their way to offensive mediocrity last year regardless of script and in those conditions they had last year?

And thats got nothing to do with talent, efficiency or any other metric of any single player (if you missed the qu, how did CHI rank as unit as a whole on offense last year?)

Having worked at PFF, i can tell you the stats are valuable, but you need to look at more than a single player and their metrics to use them properly. Context is absolutely everything in all things.


I appreciate the depth you go into your replies Jam, but I think you're overthinking things.

A few things that stick out to me with your statement that I'd like to address:

1) I do not think there is a meaningful correlation between a QBs accuracy and whether or not they target the RB (if you have data to back up this assumption, I'd be very interested). Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Philip Rivers perennially lead the league in throws to running backs-- those are 3 of the most accurate QBs in the NFL. I think the major factors at work here are A: mobility (QBs that do not have dynamic playmaking ability are more likely to offload passes faster to avoid the rush), B: How effective the O-line's pass blocking is, C: How talented the RBs are in the passing game (Think Cam Newton's target distribution before and after CMC).

Now let's bring that back to Cohen's situation last season: Mitch is very mobile, their O-line wasn't horrible, and Cohen's advanced metrics point at him being a very talented receiving back. Not the perfect storm for Cohen, and even assuming accuracy was a driving force towards his targets... Mitch is still the QB.

2) PFF's grades are definitely more of a guideline than gospel for player evalutaions. But they are something to go on, and that something points to Cohen being a fantastic receiving back. If he proves to not be great here, then obviously things change -- but I'm not going to assume his efficiency was a fluke because his advanced metrics matched both his production on the field and from what I see out of him visually. Could all of those reference points be wrong? Sure, but in my experiences it's more likely to be correct.

I think its also fair to ask you think the general rules youd apply to WR1 or RB1 differentiations and gamescript affect non-WR1 & non-RB1 players.

Especially in the modern game.

Whether its a satellite/ scat/ 3rd down/ HB/ FB/ Slot/ Joker/ Move/ TE/ Slot/ Big slot or any other denomination. Its normal and gamescript neutral.

GS favoured Cohen last year because the leads were never big enough to risk Trubisky heaving it deep (esp after wk12 and the shoudler inj)

Having an OC like Nagy (History, playcalling) as well as Trubisky (Issues), i dont see why they wouldnt checkdown, bubble/ screen and slant their way to offensive mediocrity last year regardless of script and in those conditions they had last year?


Obviously if their offense had an Adam Thielen/Stefon Diggs situation that would negatively affect Cohen's target share. But they were not devoid of talent, and the receiving situation for the Bears last season was closer to league average than the bottom of the league. So I maintain this was not a perfect storm for Cohen, and that his own virtues were a big reason for his workload last season.

So let me clarify my overall feelings on Cohen's fantasy outlook: I do not think Cohen will be a perennial RB1 in ppr leagues (what we saw out of him was probably closer to his ceiling than his floor). I do think Cohen will maintain his role as the RB during obvious passing downs. I do think his workload will be more or less the same this year. We'll see what happens :thumbright:
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It's too bad I'm not drafting any Bears because you guys are analyzing the crap out of this.
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zuggyawesome wrote:2) PFF's grades are definitely more of a guideline than gospel for player evalutaions. But they are something to go on, and that something points to Cohen being a fantastic receiving back.


Yeah heres what i dont get ... Yes, they are a grade, a useful one.

But whilst well adhere to PFF grades on Cohen. In receiving, not overall.

But we'll ignore the grades for Montgomery. Or even Davis. Ive seen no mention for either.

You should really look up PFFs grades on Montgomery.

They project interestingly to a Nagy offense.

--------------------------------------

zuggyawesome wrote:Cohen is a threat out of the backfield in the passing game. In order to improve his quarterback’s efficiency, he should be looked at early and often this season.


zuggyawesome wrote:I appreciate the depth you go into your replies Jam, but I think you're overthinking things.

A few things that stick out to me with your statement that I'd like to address:

1) I do not think there is a meaningful correlation between a QBs accuracy and whether or not they target the RB


Yeah. It wasnt me that suggested there was any sort of link.

I promise.

1st post: "tgting Cohen would improve Trubisky's efficiency" so he should do it "early & often".
2nd post: "There is no correlation between QB accuracy & RB usage."

Maybe im misreading it, but sounds like you disagree with yourself? Dont know

Either way, theres a read which might be worth your time. Cliffs: Efficiency stats are ... not good predictors. Touches, tgts are.

And thats why i worry too much focus on the former... not enough attention on the competition for the latter (WRs & RBs)

https://www.4for4.com/fantasy-football/2019/preseason/most-predictable-running-back-stats
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endzoneview wrote:It's too bad I'm not drafting any Bears because you guys are analyzing the crap out of this.


im regretting owning Cohen in the worst possible way about now #-o :)
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jamcutpost wrote:
zuggyawesome wrote:2) PFF's grades are definitely more of a guideline than gospel for player evalutaions. But they are something to go on, and that something points to Cohen being a fantastic receiving back.


Yeah heres what i dont get ... Yes, they are a grade, a useful one.

But whilst well adhere to PFF grades on Cohen. In receiving, not overall.

But we'll ignore the grades for Montgomery. Or even Davis. Ive seen no mention for either.

You should really look up PFFs grades on Montgomery.


The difference here is that Montgomery's grades are based on his play in college, which may or may not translate to the NFL.

--------------------------------------

zuggyawesome wrote:Cohen is a threat out of the backfield in the passing game. In order to improve his quarterback’s efficiency, he should be looked at early and often this season.


zuggyawesome wrote:I appreciate the depth you go into your replies Jam, but I think you're overthinking things.

A few things that stick out to me with your statement that I'd like to address:

1) I do not think there is a meaningful correlation between a QBs accuracy and whether or not they target the RB


jamcutpost wrote:Yeah. It wasnt me that suggested there was any sort of link. Promise.

1st post quoted you said that "tgting Cohen would improve Trubisky's efficiency" so he should do it "early & often".
2nd post quoted you say there is "no correlation between QB accuracy & RB usage."

Maybe im misreading it? Because the 2nd quote sounds a lot like it contradicts the heck out of the first.

Either way, theres an intersting read which might be worth your time

https://www.4for4.com/fantasy-football/2019/preseason/most-predictable-running-back-stats


I'm not sure I follow here. Mitch's overall passer rating in 2018 was 95.4. His passer rating when targeting Cohen was 111. I realize RB targets are typically empty calorie targets.. but the whole root of my premise is that Cohen is an exceptional receiving back that elevates the passing game in much the same way that a dynamic receiver does. In this context, this is just saying target Cohen because he elevates your passing game.
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beatneck wrote:I feel like Mike Davis is going to get more touches than he's getting mentions in this thread. But if he doesn't, it's going to be because of Montgomery's successes.

He's one of the reasons I've intentionally not brought up Monty wrt Cohen's workload.