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As always - if you disagree with me, that's fine, but you're wrong and I hate you.

Tier 1: Premium production for a premium price.
1. Lamar Jackson, BAL
2. Patrick Mahomes, KC

Tier 2: Dual-threats with the upside to finish in the top 3 - and maybe higher.
3. Dak Prescott, DAL
4. Deshaun Watson, HOU - It feels like Deshaun is often ranked last in this group, and I understand why. Losing Hopkins sucks. But this team has a bunch of above-average receivers, good receiving RBs, and a bad defense. If Houston is constantly trailing, I think Deshaun can set your fantasy league on fire.
5. Kyler Murray, ARI
6. Russell Wilson, SEA - #FreeRuss. Please.

Tier 3: Rock-solid QB1s I'd take if they're available after rounds 7/8.
7. Josh Allen, BUF - Feels like he's replaced pre-breakout Dak as the unflashy dual-threat whose redzone upside will keep him comfortably in the top 10.
8. Matt Ryan, ATL
9. Carson Wentz, PHI
10. Matthew Stafford, DET - On pace for nearly 5,000 and 38 last year before the injury. Seems to have taken a step forward with his development as a legit top-shelf QB. Benefited from the most vertically-oriented play-calling in the league - and he has the weapons to keep the good times rolling.
11. Tom Brady, TB
12. Aaron Rodgers, GB
13. Drew Brees, NO - Buyer beware. There's been a 3-year trend with the Saints becoming much more run-oriented, but Brees has been able to overcome it with an incredible TD rate (SEVEN 3-TD games in the second half of 2019). With the addition of Manny Sanders, maybe he keeps it up. But I'd rather bet on higher-volume options paired with worse defenses.

Tier 4: Potential top-12 QBs who have their warts. Double-tap a couple of these guys late and play the matchups.
14. Ryan Tannehill, TEN
15. Teddy Bridgewater, CAR - I'm a big fan of everyone involved in Carolina's offense this year. Teddy pulls the strings, and Teddy gonna eat.
16. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
17. Joe Burrow, CIN - If everyone is projecting good things from Cincy's skill players, then you can't ignore Burrow's potential to play for you right away. Provides nice rushing upside too.
18. Daniel Jones, NYG - You're going to have withstand a rough start to his schedule. The weapons and rushing upside are there to make him a QB1.
19. Kirk Cousins, MIN - The defense doesn't look quite as good as last year and Cook may hold out. He's good enough to return to QB1 status.
20. Gardner Minshew II, JAC - If I'm a big fan of Teddy, I have to be a fan of Minshew too. Godawful defense paired with an interesting offense. Underrated runner too.
21. Jared Goff, LAR
22. Philip Rivers, IND - Interesting to note how little attention his move to Indy has received. He'll play behind the best OL he's ever had and he never shies away from taking shots downfield. Paired with an average defense, he can definitely retain QB1 status.
23. Jimmy Garoppolo, SF
24. Baker Mayfield, CLE

Tier 5: If you're a Late Round QB Guy...this might be a little too late (but I actually think a few have some QB1.5 upside)
25. Drew Lock, DEN
26. Sam Darnold, NYJ - I believe in his talent, and if Gase is fired that'll be a bonus. Surrounded by nice receiving options and a better oline.
27. Derek Carr, LV
28. Tyrod Taylor, LAC - If he actually keeps the job, his rushing ability alone will keep him hovering between QB12-18
29. Nick Foles, CHI
30. Dwayne Haskins, WAS
31. Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA - Same as Tyrod. If the job is his, he's definitely a Tier 4 guy.
32. Jarrett Stidham, NE
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yes. free chicken salad/the hobbit. dude is the entire seattle offense and plays behind a crap OL.
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i like Kyler...i know its a hot take but i think he ends up qb1. Kyler is probably the only qb i'd take early . I also like that tier with Wentz, Stafford.

My late qb is Daniel jones. Those are the 4 qbs i will target
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I will forever Stan Ryan Tannehill.
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Daniel Jones is currently being drafted as the 15th QB, round 9 or thereabouts. He opens v. PIT, @ CHI, v. SF, @ LAR, @ DAL. He may have been 12th give or take in per game scoring, but he only had 4 games in the top 12 of QB scoring - 3 of which were against bottom 10 pass defenses and the other week 16 against a Redskins team that...well, let's just say neither team was playing for anything under coaching staff's about to be replaced.

In his 12 games Daniel Jones turned the ball over 23 times, was hit 66 times, resulting in 38 sacks, averaging just 5.7 air yards per completion at just a 62% rate, and 10 of his 24 passing td's came while trailing by more than a score. He was objectively bad - and you should draw your own expectations for this team with Judge and Garrett now in control, but mine are not high. He probably would be a strict do not draft in 1 QB leegs anyway, but his price tag makes him an easier pass.

However. Watch him closely over that murderous stretch to start the season. If those metrics show some signs of life keep an eye on his drafter dropping him. Cause even if he's still a bad QB, and he could obviously develop beyond that, he still plays on a team that will likely be playing from behind most weeks and he's not afraid to run. And that scores in our game.
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Co-sign everything you said, Oar.

I think Jones is an ideal best-ball or superflex option, but expecting him to be you every week starter is asking for trouble. His weekly floor is really low and can cripple your team.

My hope is he'll be dropped by frustrated owners after that murderous first month, and I'll assess him from there.
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teddy is my undervalued darling this year. not close.
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getdownmmmkay wrote:teddy is my undervalued darling this year. not close.


Take a seat. I'm driving this Teddy bandwagon, bub.

Image
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I'll take me some Juju and Ben please..
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FantasyHussy wrote:32. Jarrett Stidham, NE

this made me giggle like a school girl.
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I've been sitting on Teddy for almost a half decade. Y'all back off.
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He's a really nice guy.
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Another year of fantasy, another year where there's no way I'm drafting a QB before round 8.

No one should be surprised if someone in tier 8 has a top 7 finish.

One thing I'll note with Daniel Jones: A lot of people are glossing over the coaching change from Pat Shurmur to Jason Garrett. It's not an especially talented offense, and I suspect Garrett will run a much more conservative, run based attack than the one Jones ran last season. I will own Jones in 0 leagues at his current ADP
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yea. daniel jones is more of a 2nd qb with upside IF i keep a 2nd qb. IN my 12 Man SUPERFLEX dynasty Jones is a starter for me. I'm probably more biased for him than anyone though. Kid didn't get much respect coming out as a rookie. I think he did a solid job as a rookie only playing 12 games. And i love his weapons IF they can stay healthy. BIG IF. BUT he has Slayton, Shepard, Tate, Engram and Barkley. But more of my end of my bench 1st drop guy...but i might draft him just to hold.


Id take Daniel Jones over Teddy Bridewater though. Jones looked better than ANYTHING i've seen out of Teddy.
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zuggyawesome wrote:Another year of fantasy, another year where there's no way I'm drafting a QB before round 8.

No one should be surprised if someone in tier 8 has a top 7 finish.

One thing I'll note with Daniel Jones: A lot of people are glossing over the coaching change from Pat Shurmur to Jason Garrett. It's not an especially talented offense, and I suspect Garrett will run a much more conservative, run based attack than the one Jones ran last season. I will own Jones in 0 leagues at his current ADP


I think this was SHurmurs plan also but that line couldn't open any lanes for Barkley. Not sure what they've done to address those issues.
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