invertediq wrote:I do agree with your logic Fungo. That is my point though. RGIII isn't going to improve. He is terrible. For a pure fantasy perspective, Miller is going to be the guy, of the two, that will succeed the most this year.
@NautArch - You join the bandwagon for the society of the reactive community? I obviously understand the year difference, but Miller and Morris are both at 3 years, while 1 is declining. You going to continue to take Morris for the next 1-3 years just because his numbers are close or better than Miller's as a whole?
Recognize the pattern, the trend. Be proactive. Miller will be the better back this year. Barring injury of course...
The bandwagon of the reactive community? Excuse me? Except for my final statement on preferring Morris but that it's close, all I did was show the false logic you presented in your statistics.
Want to look at more statistics and not just gut feelings on pattern recognition?
Because of Miller only really playing last two years as a primary back, let's limit our research to 2013-2014. The 51 carry sample size of 2012 isn't really all that useful. In those years, he averaged 4.6 ypc in an average of about 200 attempts for 900 yards (averages). On top of that, he had an average of about 30 receptions for about 225 yards. He went from only TDs in 2013 to 9 in 2014. Production wise, his attempts increased, his yardage increased, and his average increased. That's a pretty good trend.
Alfred Morris was used significantly more, averaging about 270 carries for about 1100 yards for a 4.2ypc average. Miller was better here, but he also carried the ball less which usually translates to higher YPC. Past two seasons he averaged 7.5 TDs, pretty equal to that of Miller but much more consistent in that he's done that average pretty much each year, with his rookie year (which we didn't count) significantly better.
So yes, let's look at patterns. I see in Miller a back who isn't used heavily, puts up decent stats and either had a trending upward year or an outlier good year. With Morris, we've had 3 years of good productivity, not just 1, and remaining equal most of those years. So yeah, I"ve got them pretty close, but I'd rather have Morris.
Looking forward, as previously stated, Miller has to compete with Ajayi (who hasn't shown up well so far), but also is an offense where the running game is not the primary focus as shown by his usage. We've got Morris who has performed very well, consistently, and with a sputtering offense that was supposed to be pass-first with RG3, but is now moving into a more balanced if not run-heavy plan based on RG3s injury and failings.
I'd be fairly happy with either as an RB2 (although if I go WR/WR it could be RB1), but I do prefer Morris based both on historical statistics, trends and looking at how the teams are playing and planning for 2015.