Chum
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This headline story is just silly and makes me really doubt the advice from these articles. Morris over Miller? Just silly.

Alfred Morris has declined every year since entering the league. Both yards per attempt and overall yards from scrimmage. Lamar Miller has Improved. 5.1 YPC... Morris was at 4.1. Yards from Scrimmage was almost 1400 last year. Oh, and Griffin sucks.... why not stack the box. Even with reduced touches in comparison. Although not being utilized the best, he has managed to do nothing but improve. Now add bigger holes because there are more receiving threats? and you think his numbers will go down? Interesting. Miller is also a great pass catcher. A new coordinator will only help. What's the point of bringing up his injuries in college... over 3 YEARS AGO. Last 2 seasons, he has played in every game. Injuries from college are not relative at this point.

I hope nobody takes Alfred Morris over Lamar Miller.
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I would take Morris over Miller. The Dolphins clearly don't want miller to be a bell cow, while the Redskins just got rid of helu and the Dolphins added ajayi. Morris suffered due to team dysfunction, let's not forget miller almost couldn't beat out Daniel Thomas
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Got rid of Helu? He wanted to test the free agency because he had better numbers than Morris and was only being used as the 3rd down back, typically. Redskins took rookie Matt Jones over 50 places ahead of Ajayi. Ajayi is known for his injury, and is already being scolded for poor pass protection? Can't protect the QB, you don't play. And what do you mean almost couldn't beat out Daniel Thomas? Some story said that one time and we go with that? Talking about rookie year where most rookies need to get their feet wet?
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Do you actually watch football?

Morris > Miller
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Chum
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/yawn.... What does watching football have to do with it? I'm talking about the facts and what makes sense. You watching a game and saying "oh, that guy looks good" holds zero relevance. And if you are watching the Redskins for all 16 games a year to make that determination... I'm sorry for your team choice.
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FYI I watch all the games for all teams

And if you really want to go the facts and stats route of this arguement...

Morris, in his 3 year career so far: 3,962 yards, 4.5 ypc, 28 TDs
Miller, in his 3 year career so far: 2,058 yards, 4.6 ypc, 11 TDs

Tell me again why taking Morris over Miller is downright silly?

You're really looking way too much into last years numbers...
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Chum
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I'm not denying Morris is a decent RB, and he started off great. Had the perfect setup with the Redskins for his first year and has still put up good numbers, however he is on the decline while Miller is ascending. Morris is already wearing down and Miller is just getting started. THIS YEAR, Miller will be the better back.

Miller's first year is nothing as he didn't play. Morris played a lot, congrats.

Make sure you use yards from scrimmage.
Nearly half of Morris's TDs are in year 1. While the majority of his 11 Fumbles are in the other years.

You can't compare stats in a career to how someone will continue to do. You going to take Jay Cutler over Andrew Luck this year?

Cutler: 27,749 yards and 183 tds
Luck: 12,957 yards and 86 tds

Cutler > Luck Right?
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I actually have Morris and Miller fairly neck and neck.

From a pure pound-the-ball perspective, Alf has a clear edge over Miller.

Where Miller pulls it back to even has nothing to do with Miller himself, and everything to do with the guy handing him the ball.

Alf's decline has directly correlated to the decline of RGIII - without a consistent passing game to keep defenses honest, Morris is finding the going a lot tougher. Miller's effectiveness meanwhile has coincided with the progression of Tannehill.

Is this Morris' fault, or Miller's triumph? Nope. But I don't really give two excrements about fault :) So long as RGIII sucks, it's a toss-up between Morris and Miller.

If I see RGIII get his act together early on in the season, it wouldn't be a bad idea to try to sneak in a trade for Morris as he could be subsequently due for a bounce-back.
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invertediq wrote:
Cutler: 27,749 yards and 183 tds
Luck: 12,957 yards and 86 tds

Cutler > Luck Right?


I'm bad at math, but lordy invertediq, you're much worse. You can't compare 9 years of Cutler vs 3 years of Luck.

Let's just look at the last 3 years, shall we?

Cutler: 9466 yards, 66 TDs, 44 INT
Luck: 12,957 yards, 86 TDs, 43 INT

That look better? And yes, I've got Morris ahead of Miller in my calculations as well...but it's close.
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I do agree with your logic Fungo. That is my point though. RGIII isn't going to improve. He is terrible. For a pure fantasy perspective, Miller is going to be the guy, of the two, that will succeed the most this year.

@NautArch - You join the bandwagon for the society of the reactive community? I obviously understand the year difference, but Miller and Morris are both at 3 years, while 1 is declining. You going to continue to take Morris for the next 1-3 years just because his numbers are close or better than Miller's as a whole?

Recognize the pattern, the trend. Be proactive. Miller will be the better back this year. Barring injury of course...
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invertediq wrote:I'm not denying Morris is a decent RB, and he started off great. Had the perfect setup with the Redskins for his first year and has still put up good numbers, however he is on the decline while Miller is ascending. Morris is already wearing down and Miller is just getting started. THIS YEAR, Miller will be the better back.

Miller's first year is nothing as he didn't play. Morris played a lot, congrats.

Make sure you use yards from scrimmage.
Nearly half of Morris's TDs are in year 1. While the majority of his 11 Fumbles are in the other years.

You can't compare stats in a career to how someone will continue to do. You going to take Jay Cutler over Andrew Luck this year?

Cutler: 27,749 yards and 183 tds
Luck: 12,957 yards and 86 tds

Cutler > Luck Right?


Don't even try to use yards from scrimmage to separate the two as it's only a 300 yard difference over three years and don't pull out QB career numbers as comparison either as we're discussing RBs not QBs. Why don't you take the average for those QBs numbers and the seasons they played?

Cutler (avg over 9 seasons): 3,083 yards, 20tds
Luck (avg over 3 seasons): 4,319 yards, 29tds

Luck > Cutler right?

And I can totally use career stats to compare how someone will continue to do, it's called facts and stats if you've heard of those. I hear they're just as, if not more reliable, than "trends" which you're basing you're whole arguement off of. Miller had his best year last year and it still wasn't better than any of Alf's seasons. Those 2 players will both be drafted in 3rd-4th rounds. People tend to still want reliable production at those picks rather than take a gamble. Morris is a safer option with a better floor.
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the adjective for this definition comes to mind when reading some of these posts...

"Maintaining fixed false beliefs even when confronted with facts, usually as a result of mental illness"
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invertediq wrote:I do agree with your logic Fungo. That is my point though. RGIII isn't going to improve. He is terrible. For a pure fantasy perspective, Miller is going to be the guy, of the two, that will succeed the most this year.

@NautArch - You join the bandwagon for the society of the reactive community? I obviously understand the year difference, but Miller and Morris are both at 3 years, while 1 is declining. You going to continue to take Morris for the next 1-3 years just because his numbers are close or better than Miller's as a whole?

Recognize the pattern, the trend. Be proactive. Miller will be the better back this year. Barring injury of course...


The bandwagon of the reactive community? Excuse me? Except for my final statement on preferring Morris but that it's close, all I did was show the false logic you presented in your statistics.

Want to look at more statistics and not just gut feelings on pattern recognition?

Because of Miller only really playing last two years as a primary back, let's limit our research to 2013-2014. The 51 carry sample size of 2012 isn't really all that useful. In those years, he averaged 4.6 ypc in an average of about 200 attempts for 900 yards (averages). On top of that, he had an average of about 30 receptions for about 225 yards. He went from only TDs in 2013 to 9 in 2014. Production wise, his attempts increased, his yardage increased, and his average increased. That's a pretty good trend.

Alfred Morris was used significantly more, averaging about 270 carries for about 1100 yards for a 4.2ypc average. Miller was better here, but he also carried the ball less which usually translates to higher YPC. Past two seasons he averaged 7.5 TDs, pretty equal to that of Miller but much more consistent in that he's done that average pretty much each year, with his rookie year (which we didn't count) significantly better.

So yes, let's look at patterns. I see in Miller a back who isn't used heavily, puts up decent stats and either had a trending upward year or an outlier good year. With Morris, we've had 3 years of good productivity, not just 1, and remaining equal most of those years. So yeah, I"ve got them pretty close, but I'd rather have Morris.

Looking forward, as previously stated, Miller has to compete with Ajayi (who hasn't shown up well so far), but also is an offense where the running game is not the primary focus as shown by his usage. We've got Morris who has performed very well, consistently, and with a sputtering offense that was supposed to be pass-first with RG3, but is now moving into a more balanced if not run-heavy plan based on RG3s injury and failings.

I'd be fairly happy with either as an RB2 (although if I go WR/WR it could be RB1), but I do prefer Morris based both on historical statistics, trends and looking at how the teams are playing and planning for 2015.
Chum
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Dutchmaster17 wrote:
And I can totally use career stats to compare how someone will continue to do, it's called facts and stats if you've heard of those. I hear they're just as, if not more reliable, than "trends" which you're basing you're whole arguement off of. Miller had his best year last year and it still wasn't better than any of Alf's seasons. Those 2 players will both be drafted in 3rd-4th rounds. People tend to still want reliable production at those picks rather than take a gamble. Morris is a safer option with a better floor.



Of Course you can use career stats, because then your averaged look better. The whole point is the declining player. You can't use career averages for that. Sticking to your RB complaint instead of QB. Someone like Steven Jackson or Michael Turner... probably declined over the years. Yes they have/had played for some time, but they still declined. Just because He's only 3 years in, doesn't mean he's not declining. Also, Last year, Miller was better than Morris. Use. Yards. From. Scrimmage. Unless your league doesn't count passes to RB's, you need to use them to get accurate numbers. This is about Fantasy football, right? So fantasy numbers are what you want, right?

Not sure how a worse team and a declining RB is a better floor? Miller is the higher floor and the higher upside. I'll take that all day.

Well back to work for me. Thanks for the debate, ladies.
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invertediq wrote:
Dutchmaster17 wrote:
And I can totally use career stats to compare how someone will continue to do, it's called facts and stats if you've heard of those. I hear they're just as, if not more reliable, than "trends" which you're basing you're whole arguement off of. Miller had his best year last year and it still wasn't better than any of Alf's seasons. Those 2 players will both be drafted in 3rd-4th rounds. People tend to still want reliable production at those picks rather than take a gamble. Morris is a safer option with a better floor.



Of Course you can use career stats, because then your averaged look better. The whole point is the declining player. You can't use career averages for that. Sticking to your RB complaint instead of QB. Someone like Steven Jackson or Michael Turner... probably declined over the years. Yes they have/had played for some time, but they still declined. Just because He's only 3 years in, doesn't mean he's not declining. Also, Last year, Miller was better than Morris. Use. Yards. From. Scrimmage. Unless your league doesn't count passes to RB's, you need to use them to get accurate numbers. This is about Fantasy football, right? So fantasy numbers are what you want, right?

Not sure how a worse team and a declining RB is a better floor? Miller is the higher floor and the higher upside. I'll take that all day.

Well back to work for me. Thanks for the debate, ladies.


:F

Worst part is, he may end up being right because they're so close. But way to ignore my entire post! Because...facts.