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rugger48 wrote:Why are we even comparing the 2?


^^^ that
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I want to say I was wrong, it’s actually not a bad comparison.
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Josh Allen ceiling - Marcus Mariota.

Lamar Jackson ceiling - Steve McNair

Edit: Getting old.
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tsbgrayghost wrote:Josh Allen ceiling - Marcus Mariota.


Hard, hard disagree

These guys are almost polar opposites of each other
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Can you imagine if this guy could somehow improve his accuracy (rare, but it happens)? He'd basically be Mike Vick with a good work ethic.
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zuggyawesome wrote:


Can you imagine if this guy could somehow improve his accuracy (rare, but it happens)? He'd basically be Mike Vick with a good work ethic.


Disagree (strongly) about Vick.

Ref: Improving his accuracy? Im more optimistic about him than Allen.

Ive posted a cpl times before - at length - about his progression/coachability.

I think allen has room for improvement as the bar is low.

Problem he has is its goign to be harder to detach actual QB improvement from ensemble improvement (OL, RB, WR, TE) - where the bar was equally low (at least till wk10+ and the changing of the guard at WR)
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jamcutpost wrote:
zuggyawesome wrote:


Can you imagine if this guy could somehow improve his accuracy (rare, but it happens)? He'd basically be Mike Vick with a good work ethic.


Disagree (strongly) about Vick.

Ref: Improving his accuracy? Im more optimistic about him than Allen.

Ive posted a cpl times before - at length - about his progression/coachability.

I think allen has room for improvement as the bar is low.

Problem he has is its goign to be harder to detach actual QB improvement from ensemble improvement (OL, RB, WR, TE) - where the bar was equally low (at least till wk10+ and the changing of the guard at WR)


There's no way to get around the conflation between QB and surrounding cast. I'm sure many highly thought of QBs would not have nearly the same narrative without a great situation (Coach, Weapons, O-line, or in some cases-- Eli a defense).

I'm curious why you don't agree with the Mike Vick comparision? Jackson looks like the closest thing to Vick we've ever had, both are incredibly shifty runners with a really quick release. Vick probably had a bigger arm and slightly more top end speed, but Jackson's velocity and accuracy issues look largely fixable.
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zuggyawesome wrote:There's no way to get around the conflation between QB and surrounding cast. I'm sure many highly thought of QBs would not have nearly the same narrative without a great situation (Coach, Weapons, O-line, or in some cases-- Eli a defense).

I'm curious why you don't agree with the Mike Vick comparision? Jackson looks like the closest thing to Vick we've ever had, both are incredibly shifty runners with a really quick release. Vick probably had a bigger arm and slightly more top end speed, but Jackson's velocity and accuracy issues look largely fixable.


Ref: Conflation? Not a big issue usually.

Alex Smith is Alex Smith no matter where you put him. Same for Tyrod. Stafford. Flacco. Almost 3/4s of the league. Hackenberg and EJ were always going to be the same in pros as in CFB. Just like Luck, Newton, Weeden, McCoy and Tebow.

If improvement is goign to happen youll see it with, or without the supporting cast - it just makes it a question of how obvious or obscure it is. Same with regression.

Unless youre wading into a GOAT discussion or a running/ scrambling QB comps, its not a biggie. Just my 2c tho

Ref: Vick

Vick was a better runner & Lamar is - already - at least equable w/Vick as a passer with the potential to better

Im w/Oar in that im not strictly a huge fan of comps. Esp when talkign about "potential" which is only ever an outcome that isnt determined to happen (and i say that as someone who supported LJs coachability and work ethic)

If we're doing it, i actually wouldnt use the two we see most often for LJ & Allen - id say LJ is closer to Kap & Allen to VY.
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jamcutpost wrote:Ref: Conflation? Not a big issue usually.

Alex Smith is Alex Smith no matter where you put him. Same for Tyrod. Stafford. Flacco. Almost 3/4s of the league. Hackenberg and EJ were always going to be the same in pros as in CFB. Just like Luck, Newton, Weeden, McCoy and Tebow.

If improvement is goign to happen youll see it with, or without the supporting cast - it just makes it a question of how obvious or obscure it is. Same with regression.


I gotta disagree here. If Alex Smith was surrounded with the 2017 Chiefs his entire career that completely changes the narrative on him. He's no longer "overly conservative" but smart with the football-- because he's still producing.

The same issues comes with Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger who have never really played with a bad supporting cast.

Is Deshaun Watson a young phenom? Or has he had the benefit of playing with the best WR in football his whole career?

The Andrew Lucks, Aaron Rodgers, Russel Wilsons who are obviously the catalyst of their offenses is a much rarer phenomenon.

RE: Vick

I think you're underselling his passing ability (or perhaps overselling Lamar's? He was only marginally more accurate than Josh Allen last season). He was never a prolific passer but that was more to do with him relying solely on his QB talent and a lack of study (which he admitted he'd never really done until he got to PHI). As far as actual throwing talent, though he was better than most QBs of his time.
Last edited by zuggyawesome on Fri 05.24.2019, 18:27, edited 1 time in total.
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zuggyawesome wrote:
jamcutpost wrote:Ref: Conflation? Not a big issue usually.

Alex Smith is Alex Smith no matter where you put him. Same for Tyrod. Stafford. Flacco. Almost 3/4s of the league. Hackenberg and EJ were always going to be the same in pros as in CFB. Just like Luck, Newton, Weeden, McCoy and Tebow.

If improvement is goign to happen youll see it with, or without the supporting cast - it just makes it a question of how obvious or obscure it is. Same with regression.


I gotta disagree here. If Alex Smith was surrounded with the 2017 Chiefs his entire career that completely changes the narrative on him. He's no longer "overly conservative" but smart with the football-- because he's still producing.

The same issues comes with Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger who have never really played with a bad supporting cast.

Is Deshaun Watson a young phenom? Or has he had the benefit of playing with the best WR in football his whole career?

The Andrew Lucks, Aaron Rodgers, Russel Wilsons who are obviously the catalyst of their offenses is a much rarer phenomenon.


1. I dont know where you think i stand on Smith, but who said he wasnt "smart with the football" - Youre agreeing with me
2. Again i think youre not reading and agreeing with me.

its goign to be harder to detach actual QB improvement from ensemble improvement


Harder. As in not straightfwd. You have to look.

But its not a big issue.

Certainly not the definite theres "No way to get around the conflation".

Yes there is :)

Teams do it all the time. As do QBs, their coaches, analytic depts - As do you and i when we discuss other positions
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jamcutpost wrote:
1. I dont know where you think i stand on Smith, but who said he wasnt "smart with the football" - Youre agreeing with me
2. Again i think youre not reading and agreeing with me.

its goign to be harder to detach actual QB improvement from ensemble improvement


Harder. As in not straightfwd. You have to look.

But its not a big issue.

Certainly not the definite theres "No way to get around the conflation".

Yes there is :)

Teams do it all the time. As do QBs, their coaches, analytic depts - As do you and i when we discuss other positions


Sure, we have ways to sift through the conflation but it will never be a clear cut separation.

I for instance think Brady is the most clutch QB in NFL history, but would not be nearly as productive if not been surrounded in a situation that both recognized his strengths as a passer and surrounded him with the personnel necessary to take advantage of it. I can point to the Patriots relatively similar success with other QBs that were not able to account for much elsewhere (Matt Cassel's 11-5 record, Jimmy G 2-0, Jacoby Brisset 1-1) but there is no way we'll know if they would've had the same kind of success with these other QBs.

I believe Philip River, Matt Ryan, and Ben Roethlisberger (all of which are largely lauded as top tier QBs) are much closer (indistinguishable) to the middle of the pack-- Kirk Cousins tier of a QBs. Yet, the vast majority of fans believe Roethlisberger for instance is a sure fire HoF calibre QB.

How much a QBs success is based on their ability, and how much of it is based on their situation is an estimation that everyone does but that doesn't mean everyone (or anyone) is good at it. Do you think San Diego let's go of Brees if they know he's going to be one of the best Qbs of all time? Do you think Drew Brees would be one of the best QBs of all time if he stayed in SD and didn't hook up with Sean Payton? Do you think the Redskins gave Alex Smith that big contract expecting game manager smith, or the 2017 top 5 QB efficiency Smith? Do you think that HOU gave Brock Osweiler a huge contract because they wanted his HOU production?

This conflation is a very, very big hurdle to accurately measuring QB play.

Edit: Hmm, I get a bit heated about this subject matter :lol: My apologies if I'm jumping the gun attacking an argument you're not trying to make. I just feel very strongly that a QBs situation is a vastly underrated piece of their success. Just last season you had many people who wanted to move on from Dak Prescott until he had a Receiver that defenses had to account for. Many people (like Chris Simms) said Dak showed me something in the last part of the season... but that was the same QB who was no longer bottlenecked by a playmaker void.
Last edited by zuggyawesome on Fri 05.24.2019, 18:59, edited 1 time in total.
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zuggyawesome wrote:
jamcutpost wrote:
1. I dont know where you think i stand on Smith, but who said he wasnt "smart with the football" - Youre agreeing with me
2. Again i think youre not reading and agreeing with me.

its goign to be harder to detach actual QB improvement from ensemble improvement


Harder. As in not straightfwd. You have to look.

But its not a big issue.

Certainly not the definite theres "No way to get around the conflation".

Yes there is :)

Teams do it all the time. As do QBs, their coaches, analytic depts - As do you and i when we discuss other positions


Sure, we have ways to sift through the conflation but it will never be a clear cut separation.

Right, but i wasnt the person saying there was? ("No way to get around")

Theyre there, they can be seperated.

There is no great barrier to see if a QBs base has improved/ regressed ... his throwing motion ... progression/ reads ... or anyone of half a dozen other things a QB processes.
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Hmm, I get a bit heated about this subject matter :lol: My apologies if I'm jumping the gun attacking an argument you're not trying to make. I just feel very strongly that a QBs situation is a vastly underrated piece of their success. Just last season you had many people who wanted to move on from Dak Prescott until he had a Receiver that defenses had to account for. Many people (like Chris Simms) said Dak showed me something in the last part of the season... but that was the same QB who was no longer bottlenecked by a playmaker void.

Of course there are mechanical changes you can look to to account for improved production; but again, is it that they're just starting to do it or are they doing it with more regularity? If it's the rate going up, by how much? I feel like this would be a strong candidate for confirmation bias. But who knows :lol:
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Yeah, i get the "heated" ;)

Ref: Dak. Its a good story & helps define where things can get "juxtaposed" that shouldnt - production vs performance.

Daks production pre Amari wasnt great but his ability/performance didnt drop anymore than youd expect a guy w/OL issues and that showed more than his perceived WR issues - imo, anyway.

Yep. Bias can def creep in if youre not careful - But then thats true of all things in life :)
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