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I'll give this a stab. For me this is way too early to call for this year... so people I'm keeping an eye on early include the following:

Pettis- See above.
Tevin Coleman - I love the former Shanahan coordinator to coach connection. Breida will play catch up after tearing his pec in the off season (Remembering he originally was a backup). McKinnon IMO falls back into MIN role after surgery... Currently going in the 6th round.
Christian Kirk - Better offense, centered around the pass, and a year older. He and Fitz will lead the way. (Think Texas Tech of the NFL maybe 35-40 attempts a game) ADP in the 7th may be a bit too rich for my blood not sure but being picked ahead of Fitz. All I know is I want a piece of the receiving core as I’m a believer in Murray.
Donte Moncrief (Maybe Washington) - We saw PIT able to support two starters last year. Going in the 11th.
DeDe Westbrook - (PPR only) considered by the team the top talent playing in the slot with a presumable upgrade at QB. ADP bottom of the 9th.

Side Note thoughts that I think could “left field” people and cause a sleeper/breakout.
Not sure what is going to happen in MIN with Kubiak. Usually left field RB's happen.
NE never goes the expected route at running back especially if you can’t hold onto the ball or stay healthy. Hoody can never be trusted.

From weeks 12-17 Josh Allen was the second highest scoring player overall in Shark leagues and ahead of quarterback’s like Deshaun, Lamar, Mahomes, and Dak. One thing in common I would say.

Both starting QB’s for TB last year finished in top 10 for QB points per start. Big believer in Arians along with less QB’s and WR’s.
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tnuts13 wrote:I'll give this a stab. For me this is way too early to call for this year... so people I'm keeping an eye on early include the following:

Pettis - see above
Tevin Coleman - I love the former Shanahan coordinator to coach connection. Breida will play catch up after tearing his pec in the off season (Remembering he originally was a backup). McKinnon IMO falls back into MIN role after surgery... Currently going in the 6th round.


NB: Im not knocking this, its a great post T =D>

What follows is just following on from that/ using it to highlight/ jump at something else is all :thumbright:
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SFO RBs going to be a running thing for next cpl months (AGAIN!) and most of what we'll see will be driven by some sort of confirmation bias (we're only human, its not a problem!) on it as anything else thanks to the injuries last year

As an example, heres the "bias" from the other side of the lens (for Breida, in this instance):

- Breida was 2nd only to Cook in breakaway yds in 2017 per PFF
- Ran a 4.38, in the rain (and that was slow for him)
- BAL, DAL, NYJ & CHI all called him during the draft - noted a reporter who was at the house covering it. Some multiple times.
- Was one of the first UDFA dominoes to fall, after taking 17 phone calls.
- Like a cpl other franchises (GBP, SEA notbaly) draft pedigree means little.
- Shaniak (Mike, Kubiak, Kyle) care even elss when it coems to RBs:
Davis 6th (HoF, 4 x 2k seasons), Gary (Rnd 4, runner up to Edgerrin in his rookie season), Anderson (6th, 1.5k yds rookie yr), Morris (6th, 1.6k yds rookie season), Foster (UDFA, 4 x pro bowls)
- Coleman was drafted BEFORE Freeman: Who was the back they kept, who got used more?
- Shaniak guys all used to be Bell cow coaches. Kyle has "progressed"
- If you look at his RB usage since HOU (ATL, CLE, SFO) there is no feature back anymore, only 2-3 guys (and he'll use the Fullback too)
- The "Old coordinator to HC" thing is as good a reason as any to be pro-Coleman. But Shanny has final say on *all* personnel, so its also the same reason to like the other 2.
The Niners kept calling, and had a strong pitch about why Breida was a good fit in San Francisco.

    They told Breida about the two-back system the coaching staff previously used in Atlanta with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. Even though they drafted Utah's Joe Williams in the fourth round, he's a bigger back. They needed a speedy one. They needed Breida. If another team offered a better signing bonus, they'd match it.

Image

Current ADPs (12 team, redrafts, PPR, excluding mocks, selected in at least 75% of drafts):

Coleman - 8.05
McKinnon - 12.01
Breida - UDFA


Coleman going ahead of: Will Fuller, Brees, Roethlisberger, Lamar Miller (?!) to name a cpl
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So, like i said at the top, im not disagreeing with Ts post (not at all) or anyone else who believes Coleman will end up as "The Guy" in SF, or thats hes good value atm :thumbright:

I certainly wont pretend to know different. Ive no clue. None. Zero.

At. All.

Im only highlighting that there are as many arguments that can be made for Breida & McKinnon (Though i must confess im struggling far more McK than for the other two, personally - and we're back to pref/bias again) as Coleman.

Overall, SFO RBs could create as many problems as they solve & might be better IRL than for FF, where if you dont start the right back, in the right week, it could hurt.

- If you draft one, do you draft 2?
- Is it better to go in for Coleman, or grab Breida late (VBD)
- Are they viable candidates if you went 0RB?
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jamcutpost wrote:So, like i said at the top, im not disagreeing with Ts post (not at all) or anyone else who believes Coleman will end up as "The Guy" in SF, or thats hes good value atm :thumbright:

I certainly wont pretend to know different. Ive no clue. None. Zero.

At. All.

Im only highlighting that there are as many arguments that can be made for Breida & McKinnon (Though i must confess im struggling far more McK than for the other two, personally - and we're back to pref/bias again) as Coleman.

Overall, SFO RBs could create as many problems as they solve & might be better IRL than for FF, where if you dont start the right back, in the right week, it could hurt.

- If you draft one, do you draft 2?
- Is it better to go in for Coleman, or grab Breida late (VBD)
- Are they viable candidates if you went 0RB?


My personal approach will be draft Coleman early and Breida late. If I am wrong I hedged my bets and I have a strong handcuff. Coaching staff has already stated some folks are not going to be active game day. (Two out of the three active) I personally think McKinnon is on the outside looking in. Even if we get the 2017 Falcons (Worst case, best case 2016) its worth a 6/5th and 11th rounder for me. I can load up on wide receivers and top end TE early. On a side note I've contemplated Freeman/Ito combo the same way. Freeman is currently going in the third so it isn't as tasty IMO.
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Not much more I loathe in August/September than handcuffing. There's a time and place to deploy that strategy, but it isn't then. If the intention is to draft Breida late then I'd forget about Coleman all together.
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OarChambo wrote:Not much more I loathe in August/September than handcuffing. There's a time and place to deploy that strategy, but it isn't then. If the intention is to draft Breida late then I'd forget about Coleman all together.


Guess it was good I started with my personal approach then...
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tnuts13 wrote:
OarChambo wrote:Not much more I loathe in August/September than handcuffing. There's a time and place to deploy that strategy, but it isn't then. If the intention is to draft Breida late then I'd forget about Coleman all together.


Guess it was good I started with my personal approach then...

And he's giving his. Taking offense/getting defensive is silly.
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Handcuffing essentially limits the amount of starters on your team. You're more likely to have 1, but you cannot have 2. Diversify your portfolio and you can get 2. Acquiring as many starters as possible is the objective in September/October. Eventually the waiver wire dries up and bye weeks enter the rear view mirror. Then handcuffing becomes a viable strategy.

By all means, steal other people's handcuffs (i.e. Chubb last year) though.
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OarChambo wrote:Handcuffing essentially limits the amount of starters on your team. You're more likely to have 1, but you cannot have 2. Diversify your portfolio and you can get 2. Acquiring as many starters as possible is the objective in September/October. Eventually the waiver wire dries up and bye weeks enter the rear view mirror. Then handcuffing becomes a viable strategy.

By all means, steal other people's handcuffs (i.e. Chubb last year) though.


roster limited to 4 rbs,so no handcuffs for me
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Tevin Colemans a bust waiting to happen.

If I'm in your league, I'll do you a favor, trade him to me.
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In an ambiguous backfield, go with the cheaper option.

Matt Breida has as good a shot as Tevin Coleman to be the guy, and while I was hesitant on him last season (Vastly preferred McKinnon because I perceived him to be a more complete RB); he proved he's got a 3 down skillset.

I think they'll probably employ an RBBC approach here with a bunch of RBs that are fast and have the ability to catch the football. It'll probably take an injury for one of these guys to be a league winner; but I love Breida as a flex play stash
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Not sure if it has been mentioned or not in the past 19 pages, but as a previous Lamar Miller owner I am keeping close watch of D’Onta Foreman. If he looks recovered in camp and preseason he will be on my teams. I’m a believer that leagues are won in the second half and if I have to sit on him for the first half I’m ok with it. If his health is there I am confident he will unseat Miller.
One other mention is Mocrief. Coming from a Steelers fan, I love the way they draft WRs and I like the Dionta Johnson pick, but I saw absolutely nothing out of James Washington last year that makes me believe he will be the number 2 in Pittsburgh. I’d also like to throw Vance Macdonald in there too as a later TE that I will target if I don’t take one earlier. I think he will be a high volume red zone target, assuming health obviously
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Arian Foster is the only back I know if who has effectively returned from am Achilles.
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zuggyawesome wrote:In an ambiguous backfield, go with the cheaper option.


^ this