RB tiers - 2019

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mj021407 wrote:Marlon Mack is severely hindered in PPR leagues no? Last year colts only used him a lot when leading/winning. I most likely won’t be taking Mack for where he usually goes

Once healthy he was right around 60% snap counts every week except for that debacle against Jacksonville. If you've got some data that supports that trend of being used more once ahead in the 2nd half once ahead I'd be interested in reading it though.
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Are you worried about Kerryons health? He seems like he is in line for a good amount of touches and could be a top 10 fantasy RB
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Markulous wrote:Are you worried about Kerryons health? He seems like he is in line for a good amount of touches and could be a top 10 fantasy RB

I'm worried about the Loins offense - and team as a whole. Their making it clear they want Kerryon to share some meaningful part of the load solidified my stance on him. If I'm wrong about the Loins then I was very wrong about Kerryon though.
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TIER 1
Alvin Kamara
Christian McCaffrey
Saquon Barkley
Zeke Elliott

TIER 2
David Johnson
Nick Chubb
Melvin Gordon

TIER 3
James Conner
Dalvin Cook
Joe Mixon

TIER 4 (Don't want any of these guys except maybe Williams)
Leonard Fournette
Todd Gurley
Le'Veon Bell
Damien Williams

TIER 4
Chris Carson
Josh Jacobs
Devonta Freeman (feel like he could be a steal at his current ADP if he returns to his 2015 form, BIG IF, though)
Kerryon Johnson
Aaron Jones
Sony Michel
Marlon Mack

TIER 5
Derrick Henry (not falling for him again like I have the past three years)
Tevin Coleman
James White
Phillip Lindsay
David Montgomery
Jordan Howard
Lamar Miller
Derrius Guice
Mark Ingram

TIER 6
Tarik Cohen
Rashaad Penny
Austin Ekeler
Kenyan Drake
LeSean McCoy
Royce Freeman
Adrian Peterson
Latavius Murray
Peyton Barber
Matt Breida

TIER 7 (Young RB's with Lewis)
Kalen Ballage
Darrell Handerson
Damen Harris
Miles Sanders
Jaylen Samuels
Ito Smith
Dion Lewis
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12-Team, PPR

QB - P. Rivers
RB - Dav. Johnson, N. Chubb
WR - C. Kupp, A. Robinson, M. Williams
FLEX - C. Carson
TE - D. Walker
DEF - BAL
BN - L. Fitzgerald, D. Singletary, R. Penny, J. Hill, AJ Brown, J. Ross, N.E. Def
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OarChambo wrote:
Markulous wrote:Are you worried about Kerryons health? He seems like he is in line for a good amount of touches and could be a top 10 fantasy RB

I'm worried about the Loins offense - and team as a whole. Their making it clear they want Kerryon to share some meaningful part of the load solidified my stance on him. If I'm wrong about the Loins then I was very wrong about Kerryon though.

I think their line could be decent and I think their skill players are fine. I don't know about their defense but their offense seems like it should be about average, which should be enough for a guy like Kerryon to put up big numbers in fantasy
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Markulous wrote:
OarChambo wrote:
Markulous wrote:Are you worried about Kerryons health? He seems like he is in line for a good amount of touches and could be a top 10 fantasy RB

I'm worried about the Loins offense - and team as a whole. Their making it clear they want Kerryon to share some meaningful part of the load solidified my stance on him. If I'm wrong about the Loins then I was very wrong about Kerryon though.

I think their line could be decent and I think their skill players are fine. I don't know about their defense but their offense seems like it should be about average, which should be enough for a guy like Kerryon to put up big numbers in fantasy

Bevell as OC does not inspire confidence. Patricia's M.O. when it comes to offense is worse. There is nothing at WR beyond Golladay-Marvin and this offense went in the tank without Tate last year. Total points scored by week --> 9, 22, 20, 16, 16, 17, 13, 9, 31*. Hock may develop into a special TE, but it's year one and the learning curve at this position is usually steep. The only positive spin about this offense I can drum up is Stafford playing through a back fracture last season. Maybe that was the biggest contributor to that unwatchable offense post Golden Tate last year. I dunno. Maybe I'd be more willing to roll the dice if he were in that black hole around pick 50-60, but top 30? Nuh-uh. Better risks there.
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I can understand that, I wasn't even thinking about the coaching. I may take a shot on him but not really sure where at. I like Carson and Jones more and they are going after him so I may not have him on my team
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OarChambo wrote:
mj021407 wrote:Marlon Mack is severely hindered in PPR leagues no? Last year colts only used him a lot when leading/winning. I most likely won’t be taking Mack for where he usually goes

Once healthy he was right around 60% snap counts every week except for that debacle against Jacksonville. If you've got some data that supports that trend of being used more once ahead in the 2nd half once ahead I'd be interested in reading it though.


He does not catch the ball often, and had very low amount of targets last year. Although I do think he ended up playing almost all snaps with first team offense last preseason game. I would feel a lot better with Mack if luck was healthy.
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mj021407 wrote:
OarChambo wrote:
mj021407 wrote:Marlon Mack is severely hindered in PPR leagues no? Last year colts only used him a lot when leading/winning. I most likely won’t be taking Mack for where he usually goes

Once healthy he was right around 60% snap counts every week except for that debacle against Jacksonville. If you've got some data that supports that trend of being used more once ahead in the 2nd half once ahead I'd be interested in reading it though.


He does not catch the ball often, and had very low amount of targets last year. Although I do think he ended up playing almost all snaps with first team offense last preseason game. I would feel a lot better with Mack if luck was healthy.

Me too. I was aware of the ppr issue, but your first post was the first mention I'd ever seen of game script. Just wondering if there's more to the story. There's a reason he's last in that tier and I'd have no qualms bumping him out too.
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Thanks for putting this out there, sir. Couple questions/concerns/comments (and all of this in mind with a 2/2/2 RB WR Flex lineup so that makes my thinking a bit different than yours)..

-It's probably just flip the three sided coin and you're fine regardless, but Barkley being 3rd surprised me. Interested to hear your thought for CMC 1 Kamara 2.

-What's the play at the 2/3 turn? I agree Aaron Jones is probably 1 of 2 targets, but the WRs there don't excite (Allen, Hilton, AB, Cooper, MIN WRs) and the other RBs are looking like Damien, Mack, Kerryon, Fournette etc... meh. I feel like I want some floor to counteract the Jones volatility but who the F offers that here. Hilton I guess. Almost want it to be Carson but feels like that might be too early but health seems like his only issue at the moment.

I'm really not opposed to starting 3 RBs either, I feel like doing that and then drafting 3 or 4 WRs in a row and ending up with something like Lockett ARob and Samuel feels fine.

-Miami really seems intent on making Ballage work. That ADP will be one to watch and see where it lands 2 weeks from now.

-Mack doesn't seem like a true difference maker but if it's not him then who the F is it for them at RB? Hines isn't taking those between the tackles touches. He could have a ton of + game scripts in Indy though if Luck's healthy b/c I think they might be the best team in the AFC right now. The way they've rebuilt that entire team is just so F'n right.

-Freeman is such a tough one because I think it's clear there probably isn't much left in the tank but if there's enough for 2019 then he'll be a + pick in that offense w/out any real competition.

-Singletary seems like such an obvious late round RB that's at least a flex play by midseason but balancing how good the situation looks with the meh opinion pre-draft on him is a tough balancing act. Buffalo spent a decent pick on him though.
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Pick earlier than you think you should
Chris Carson SEA (11)

Plan B
Sony Michel NE (10)


I particularly agree with this part. Both of these guys have great ADP's. I have them reversed though. I like Sony the best of the 2 and am more than happy to reach for him if needed. If it doesn't work out, I try to get Carson instead. Sony is so much more talented than Carson in my opinion.

Sony looked really good last night in preseason action. I know it's the Pats, but it makes absolutely no sense to me why he has a 4th round ADP.
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Tacks652 wrote:
Pick earlier than you think you should
Chris Carson SEA (11)

Plan B
Sony Michel NE (10)


I particularly agree with this part. Both of these guys have great ADP's. I have them reversed though. I like Sony the best of the 2 and am more than happy to reach for him if needed. If it doesn't work out, I try to get Carson instead. Sony is so much more talented than Carson in my opinion.

Sony looked really good last night in preseason action. I know it's the Pats, but it makes absolutely no sense to me why he has a 4th round ADP.


As a Pats fan I love Sony too and think he should be good, but I wonder if he'll ever be "great." James White and Damien Harris will both be involved too and it smells like a committe type approach. If Sony can be useful as a pass catcher and make an improvement to say...30 catches, 300 rec yards...he'll be well worth his current value. He was arguably the most predictable player last year when he was on the field (i think he only caught 7 passes). But Harris has looked good in the passing game through 3 games of preseason action so who knows what theyre gonna do.

Game flow and script will play a part too. Pats are gonna be leading in the 2nd half most of the time which could result in garbage time rushing yards for Sony.

As for sony vs. Carson....its close but I think Id rather have Carson. But its very close
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12-Team, PPR

QB - P. Rivers
RB - Dav. Johnson, N. Chubb
WR - C. Kupp, A. Robinson, M. Williams
FLEX - C. Carson
TE - D. Walker
DEF - BAL
BN - L. Fitzgerald, D. Singletary, R. Penny, J. Hill, AJ Brown, J. Ross, N.E. Def
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TheBlitz1588 wrote:
Tacks652 wrote:
Pick earlier than you think you should
Chris Carson SEA (11)

Plan B
Sony Michel NE (10)


I particularly agree with this part. Both of these guys have great ADP's. I have them reversed though. I like Sony the best of the 2 and am more than happy to reach for him if needed. If it doesn't work out, I try to get Carson instead. Sony is so much more talented than Carson in my opinion.

Sony looked really good last night in preseason action. I know it's the Pats, but it makes absolutely no sense to me why he has a 4th round ADP.


As a Pats fan I love Sony too and think he should be good, but I wonder if he'll ever be "great." James White and Damien Harris will both be involved too and it smells like a committe type approach. If Sony can be useful as a pass catcher and make an improvement to say...30 catches, 300 rec yards...he'll be well worth his current value. He was arguably the most predictable player last year when he was on the field (i think he only caught 7 passes). But Harris has looked good in the passing game through 3 games of preseason action so who knows what theyre gonna do.

Game flow and script will play a part too. Pats are gonna be leading in the 2nd half most of the time which could result in garbage time rushing yards for Sony.

As for sony vs. Carson....its close but I think Id rather have Carson. But its very close


Yea I'm with you on those points. The deciding factor for me is Sony's talent. I don't think Carson is really anything special. Big guy, good vision, decisive, wins with power. Not exactly a dynamic player otherwise. He'll be solid this year I agree.
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Both teams in theory will be in the top 10 in rushing attempts by the end of the year, though, it seems
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Deep Crimson

12-Team, PPR

QB - P. Rivers
RB - Dav. Johnson, N. Chubb
WR - C. Kupp, A. Robinson, M. Williams
FLEX - C. Carson
TE - D. Walker
DEF - BAL
BN - L. Fitzgerald, D. Singletary, R. Penny, J. Hill, AJ Brown, J. Ross, N.E. Def
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LaSean4Heisman wrote:Thanks for putting this out there, sir. Couple questions/concerns/comments (and all of this in mind with a 2/2/2 RB WR Flex lineup so that makes my thinking a bit different than yours)..

-It's probably just flip the three sided coin and you're fine regardless, but Barkley being 3rd surprised me. Interested to hear your thought for CMC 1 Kamara 2.

It's a hedge against the Giants. Barkley will probably go Barry Sanders anyway, but I think their season is going to be a disaster.
LaSean4Heisman wrote:-What's the play at the 2/3 turn? I agree Aaron Jones is probably 1 of 2 targets, but the WRs there don't excite (Allen, Hilton, AB, Cooper, MIN WRs) and the other RBs are looking like Damien, Mack, Kerryon, Fournette etc... meh. I feel like I want some floor to counteract the Jones volatility but who the F offers that here. Hilton I guess. Almost want it to be Carson but feels like that might be too early but health seems like his only issue at the moment.

I'm really not opposed to starting 3 RBs either, I feel like doing that and then drafting 3 or 4 WRs in a row and ending up with something like Lockett ARob and Samuel feels fine.

Anyone you don't expect to make it to the 4/5 is in play. In this sorta format a lot of RB's early has some merit. There are some good ones available outside the top 60 or so, but none you really want to start week 1. I wouldn't expect Carson to fall, so if things don't break right and you prefer him to Freeman, Mack, Jones, etc. then go for it. If you think there's a reasonable chance he falls then I'd risk it though.
LaSean4Heisman wrote:-Mack doesn't seem like a true difference maker but if it's not him then who the F is it for them at RB? Hines isn't taking those between the tackles touches. He could have a ton of + game scripts in Indy though if Luck's healthy b/c I think they might be the best team in the AFC right now. The way they've rebuilt that entire team is just so F'n right.

-Freeman is such a tough one because I think it's clear there probably isn't much left in the tank but if there's enough for 2019 then he'll be a + pick in that offense w/out any real competition.

-Singletary seems like such an obvious late round RB that's at least a flex play by midseason but balancing how good the situation looks with the meh opinion pre-draft on him is a tough balancing act. Buffalo spent a decent pick on him though.

Volume matters. This is why I inquired about Mack upstream. I'm willing to open my mind on him if his role is less stable than I thought it was.

I have a hard time envisioning Freeman as anything more than average, but Ito Smith and Brian Hill aren't going to eat into his snaps. I could see Ollison eat into obvious run down work, but he's starting off so far behind in the pass game I can't argue for much more before 2020. Freeman doesn't have to be who he was, he just has to be functional. Although with him being a marginal athlete to start his room for error isn't much and maybe the injuries were enough. We'll see, but it's a risk I'm comfortable with.

In lock step with you on Singletary. Between his offense as a whole and the lack of volume I expect early in the season I'm not prioritizing him right now. If I end up needing to dig down the well then I will, but I'd rather wate until Sep/Oct on him. I know what I saw on tape, but...those metrics were beyond bad. Metrics do two things to an eval - cause you to reconsider because they're just that bad/good or no change. He was in the former group and obviously not of the good variety.