Nick Chubb - Hold...or Sell High?

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und2006 wrote:
NautArch wrote:I don't think you're necessarily wrong. But on the other hand, Chubb has been incredibly consistent with 20 carries per game almost the entire season. With hunt back and particularly the last game. Chubb got 27 carries and hunt got an additional 6. that seems to me to suggest that maybe the coaching staff is giving more carries to the running game as a whole and not taking away from Chub.

When you're in a game situation where you're ahead, which they were most of the game, that happens.

Let's see how it goes when they are in a neutral or worse game script. A game where you ran it 33 times total is pretty run heavy, and not likely to be the norm.

You're forgetting the week before against Buffalo. Chubb had 22 touches in a tight game
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Markulous wrote:
und2006 wrote:
NautArch wrote:I don't think you're necessarily wrong. But on the other hand, Chubb has been incredibly consistent with 20 carries per game almost the entire season. With hunt back and particularly the last game. Chubb got 27 carries and hunt got an additional 6. that seems to me to suggest that maybe the coaching staff is giving more carries to the running game as a whole and not taking away from Chub.

When you're in a game situation where you're ahead, which they were most of the game, that happens.

Let's see how it goes when they are in a neutral or worse game script. A game where you ran it 33 times total is pretty run heavy, and not likely to be the norm.

You're forgetting the week before against Buffalo. Chubb had 22 touches in a tight game

If we are analyzing Hunt's impact, his first game back isn't probably the best indication of his future usage vs Chubb.
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I guess but we have two full games and neither supports the narrative of Hunt is hurting Chubbs value.
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Markulous wrote:I guess but we have two full games and neither supports the narrative of Hunt is hurting Chubbs value.


Disagree. The fact that there were a bunch of touches to go around for the RBs last week masks it, but Hunt got 1/3 of the touches doled out to RBs.

You're free to disagree, but that's cause for concern if it becomes the norm. It could be Hunt simply got some of those extra touches that became available due to game script, and you're right. But the narrative that he's not going to be involved is simply not true, and those touches have to come from somewhere.

There were two outlier games where he had 1 catch, but other than that Chubb was getting 3-5 catches a game, he has 2 in the two weeks Hunt has been back.
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Um, he had 4 targets two weeks ago.
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und2006 wrote:
Markulous wrote:I guess but we have two full games and neither supports the narrative of Hunt is hurting Chubbs value.


Disagree. The fact that there were a bunch of touches to go around for the RBs last week masks it, but Hunt got 1/3 of the touches doled out to RBs.

You're free to disagree, but that's cause for concern if it becomes the norm. It could be Hunt simply got some of those extra touches that became available due to game script, and you're right. But the narrative that he's not going to be involved is simply not true, and those touches have to come from somewhere.

There were two outlier games where he had 1 catch, but other than that Chubb was getting 3-5 catches a game, he has 2 in the two weeks Hunt has been back.

As Naut said he had 4 targets two weeks ago. He had 1 target on Sunday but that's actually the 3rd time this year that's happened, neither of the first 2 games had Hunt active.

And it doesn't matter what % he had last week, he got 27 carries. You really don't want to give someone more than that if you can help it.
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Having said that, hunt is doing extremely well pass catching and we've only got two games of data.
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Better sell Chubb.

The luckiest sob in ff picked up hunt in week 4 in my home league.

Hunt getting ready to get 99%.
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tsbgrayghost wrote:Better sell Chubb.

The luckiest sob in ff picked up hunt in week 4 in my home league.

Hunt getting ready to get 99%.


You shut your filthy mouth
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Look. Chubb helped BIG to get me to the playoffs. We knew this day was coming. Hopefully we all drafted accordingly.
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OarChambo wrote:
NautArch wrote:
I'm so sorry.

Should this thread be named Holding Chubb?

It's more of a rub.

***IMPORTANT UPDATE*** - I'm now chafing
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This thread has gotten really alarmist for no good reason.
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Elmagister wrote:This thread has gotten really alarmist for no good reason.

Fantasy rank of the teams already played in points against RB:

14
10
12
9
3
13
1
8
19
6

Future opponents:

27
6 - a team he just amassed 27 touches against
28
23
9

But, sure - NOW is when we're going to freak out.
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NautArch wrote:Having said that, hunt is doing extremely well pass catching and we've only got two games of data.

I agree, Hunt's looked great. He's done real well with his 23 touches. I wouldn't expect much more usage unless game script dictates, but he's established the baseline. He needs double digit touches per game. But who are those touches coming from?

Dontrell Hilliard touches this season - 24, last two games? Zero (9 snaps)
Antonio Callaway - 8/0 (0 snaps/cut)
Damion Ratley - 8/0 (2 snaps)

This idea that his workload is coming at the expense of Chubb is quite simply make believe.
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Chubb's ceiling is a little lower with Hunt in the mix. Dude still has an extremely high floor with a guaranteed minimum 15 carries/game. Now you're just more TD-dependent for those +16pt games.

CLE's play-calling is so scripted now, though. I don't know the exact percentage since Hunt has been back; just going off the eye test of the two CLE games I've watched, I'd guess better than 60% chance it's a run play with Chubb on the field. He's also on the sidelines on EVERY 3rd and not-short play.