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Killa CAM CAN!! wrote:idk about HOF ...i just dont think his injury will be as bad as it seems. I do think he's a stud in the making though...reminds me a lot of AB. he might be TOO optimistic but im rooting for him to be back in 10. But like oar said they'll probably play it safe and let him sit longer



Brian Witt
June 18, 2020, 9:04 PM PDT
Thursday began with some bad news for the 49ers, as they learned second-year receiver Deebo Samuel sustained a Jones fracture in his foot Tuesday while working out with teammates in Nashville, Tenn.

The news San Francisco got at the end of the day was far more positive.

Though you'll have to take his own word for it, it would appear Samuel underwent a successful surgery.


"Surgery went perfect," Samuel said on Instagram from the hospital. "I'm telling y'all, in 10 weeks, it'll be a better Deebo than you've ever seen. I'm telling you. Legendary."

What Deebo messaged out is exactly why I can't imagine buying. If he's back out there then his adp is going up because whoever is drafting him expects him back week 1. With his adp going up so does his injury risk or just not being as effective, because like so many before him he clearly wants to push the timeline to return. Despite historical data clearly saying that's a mistake.
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most people i hear are doom and gloom (even with the tweet) so im not sure his adp will rise. Everyone is saying he wont be the same. (see Hakeem Nicks, Sammy Watkins, etc.) I also think SF will be cautious with him. Deebo does have an injury history i'll admit but he's just one of those guys you don't want to bet against. Deebo is old school...that's probably what i love the most about him.
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I am hoping he come's back and has a great season, but he will have to do it on someone else's team.
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1 hour agoSan Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel (foot) is dealing with a classic Jones fracture and could be ready to return in 10 to 12 weeks rather than the 12 to 16 weeks that was originally reported. Samuel could still be pushing it to be ready for the start of the regular season, and the risk of him starting the year on the Physically Unable to Perform list has caused him to fall down draft boards. The 24-year-old was one of the team's best pass-catchers as a rookie, hauling in 57 receptions for 802 yards and three touchdowns. With his injury, rookie Brandon Aiyuk, Kendrick Bourne and Trent Taylor become more attractive, at least early in the year. Samuel can be targeted as a WR4 with upside in fantasy drafts.--Keith Hernandez - RotoBaller


dont sleep on him in redraft...probably could be had at a discount. i would have sent dynasty offers out if his owner wanted to dump him.
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His ADP is WR26, #60 overall. Players picked in his neighborhood include DeVante Parker, Terry McLaurin, AJ Green, Jarvis Landry, and Courtland Sutton. His per game rates last year ranked 36th, 23rd from Week 8-on when his role in the offense increased. So in order to justify that price he must improve over last year and stay healthy. Let's look at those being drafted around him...

McLaurin - 93 targets, 14 games, 22% target share, 14 aDOT, 62% catch rate, 9.9 yards per target, 6.6 targets per game, 479 passing attempts
Sutton - 124 targets, 16 games, 25% target share, 11.9 aDOT, 58% catch rate, 9 yards per target, 7.8 targets/game, 504 passing attempts
Parker - 128 targets, 16 games, 21% target share, 14 aDOT, 56% catch rate, 9.4 yards per target, 8 targets/game, 615 passing attempts
Landry - 138 targets, 16 games, 26% target share, 10.1 aDOT, 60% catch rate, 8.5 yards per target, 8.6 targets/game, 539 passing attempts
Deebo - 81 targets, 15 games, 18% target share, 7.5 aDOT, 70% catch rate, 9.9 yards per target, 5.4 targets/game (note his 14 carries tho), 478 passing attempts
Green (2018) - 76 targets, 9 games, 23% target share, 12.5 aDOT, 59% catch rate, 9 yards per target, 8.4 targets/game, 542 passing attempts

Given that data, if healthy, Deebo is difficult to justify over any of options...and his decision to return early greatly enhances that injury risk relative to them. Unfortunately, Deebo is an emphatic hard pass.
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can you show me those ADPs? im surprised he'd be getting draft that early with the injury. Also im not going off last years targets when he was eased into the offense as a rookie. I anticipate alot more targets for Deebo...right up there with Kittle. Deebo needs the ball in his hands...just like the Super Bowl.

But i understand why his ADP could be there ...and i'd take him over the guys you mentioned. I might take Landry over him but idk if i could.
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I use fantasy pros. They aggregate data from espn, yahoo, fantrax, calculator, rt sports, fantrax, and mfl. ESPN of all places is the only one to have him ranked substantially below that range - their adp's are typically the most laughably bad of them all. I like to review this data this time of year then circle back around mid August and see where the market's changed.

And I get that increased target share is how he'd be justified over those guys. His low volume offense isn't changing, but if he's a 25% guy that catches 70% of his passes that's an 80 catch season - and doesn't account for his rushing usage. It was one thing when he just needed that increased target share while sustaining his other metrics. That isn't his only variable now though. I'm not sure when the risk is justified, but unless his ADP falls I'm not taking the time to figure it out.
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Fair. I was actually under the impression his adp did fall because of the 10-12 week injury and possibility of the injury lingering. Guess i was wrong.

I do know the injury did scare people away from deebo though.
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If you look at MFL ADP, and filter it to post June 1 drafts:

84 overall, WR28

still too rich for me
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im expecting 70-80 recs from deebo. Closer to 80 imo. I'm probably expecting more from Deebo than most are :D

also i see Deebo's ADP at wr33. 84 overall. FANTASY PROS. Personally that's a great spot for me to grab him. I don't feel like any of those guys will make me regret drafting Deebo there.



28 68 A.J. Green CIN (9) 29 35 27 28 26 29.0
29 69 Jarvis Landry CLE (9) 25 33 31 30 29 29.6
30 70 Marquise Brown BAL (8) 32 30 28 29 34 30.6
31 72 Tyler Boyd CIN (9) 30 31 35 32 31 31.8
32 75 Michael Gallup DAL (10) 31 34 32 35 33 33.0
33 84 Deebo Samuel SF (11) 42 28 33 31 32 33.2
34 76 Julian Edelman NE (6) 33 45 37 33 30 35.6
35 85 Brandin Cooks HOU (8) 36 37 30
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Marquise Brown aside, the data behind the new names aren't really much different than the first batch:

Tyler Boyd 2019 - 148 targets, 16 games, 24% target share, 8 aDOT, 61% catch rate, 7.1 yards/target, 9.3 targets/game, 542 passing attempts
Since the 2019 Bengals were an abject disaster lets also look at his 2018 - 108 targets, 14 games, 22% share, 10.1 aDOT, 70% catch rate, 9.5 yards/target, 7.7 targets/game, 616 attempts
Michael Gallup - 113 targets, 14 games, 21% share, 12.2 aDOT, 58% catch rate, 9.8 yards/target, 8.1 targets/game, 597 attempts
Julian Edelman - 153 targets, 16 games, 25% share, 9.6 aDOT, 65% catch rate, 7.3 yds/target, 9.6 targets/game, 620 attempts
Brandin Cooks 2019 - 72 targets, 14 games, 13% share, 13.9 aDOT, 58% catch rate, 8.1 5.1 targets/game, 632 attempts
(so why is Cooks in this conversation?)
Well, Cooks 18 - 116 targets, 16 games, 22% share, 12.7 aDOT, 69% catch rate, 10.3 yds/target, 7.3 targets/game, 568 attempts
AND
Nuk - 150 targets, 15 games, 30%(!!!) share, 10.5 aDOT, 69% catch rate, 7.8 yds/target, 10 targets/gm, 534 attempts

Now, there's more elements of risk with the above sample. Boyd and Cooks have possible explanations for the poor 2019, but they still need to actually bounce back. Nuk's 30% share is not going all to Cooks - he will need to battle others. Life with Cam will be different than life with Brady for Edelman. Will CeeDee Lamb relegate Gallup to the Cobb role. Will Tee Higgins relegate Boyd to third wheel.

But those are all established workloads. While Deebo's is projection. And are any of those risks more damaging than Deebo's increased injury risk. I'm definitely not there yet.
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yea. those guys all have some risks (even some of them injury risks as well). We are kinda in agreement...i just think Deebo will get more than you project him to get.
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Killa CAM CAN!! wrote:yea. those guys all have some risks (even some of them injury risks as well). We are kinda in agreement...i just think Deebo will get more than you project him to get.

Nope, that isn't it at all. This is 100% a Jones issue.
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I will not be touching Deebo in redraft outside of flier territory.
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exactly why i expected his ADP to drop more...
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