OarChambo wrote:Blake Jarwin - what those targeting Jack Doyle are actually looking for:
76% catch rate
7% target share...but most importantly, Witten's 14% went unfilled.
Will Jarwin get the whole 21%? No, of course not. Will his efficiency marks carry forward? It's possible, but probably not. But let's give him a 15% share and round everything above down about 10%, seems conservative enough.
Assuming 550 passes: 83 targets/58 rec/660 yards/5 TD. That's TE8 last year and TE6 the year before. And that's conservative. If he sustains his efficiency rates and gets a 17% target share: 94 targets/71 rec/832 yards/5 TD. Which puts him within positive TD variance, or another 600 pass season like 2019, away from a top 5 TE.
On one hand, I'm now torn between him and Hurst. But on the other, even if I can't figure out which one is the better risk - just draft the other after the first one goes (Jarwin ADP 183). And on the third hand because I'm a mutant assessing the tight end landscape in June before a season that won't happen, there's still more in that pile of double digit round tight ends to analyze.
With so many athletic TE prospects getting opportunities, there might be a few more breakouts out of left field than usual.
I personally think the sophomore TE's are all quality dart throws: Kahale Warring, Dawson Knox, Jace Sternberger will have the opportunity to be the 2nd option in their offense with quality athleticism. Josh Oliver is just as athletic, but is likely behind Eifert in jax... but it's unlikely he stays healthy. The reason they're not getting much hype? 3 of them went on IR their rookie year so they're massive unknowns.