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OarChambo wrote:James Washington is being criminally under valued in the Pittsburgh WR room.

16.7 ypr (10th in leeg)
9.2 ypt (22nd)
15.8 aDOT
mediocre catch rate metrics but due to the dredge at QB a hliarious 1/3 of his passes were deemed uncatchable

He had a messy start with Big Ben in 18, but to make the progress that he did last year in that situation should have been a needle mover. And it hasn't.

So let's try to figure out his range of potential outcomes. This offense threw 689 times in 2018 with Big Ben at QB and James Conner the primary RB. That may be a stretch in an AB-less world, but he threw almost 600 times in each 2016 and 2017 and that was with a substantially more durable Le'Veon Bell in tow. So lets call the low end 600 attempts. Assume no growth in his target share (16%). But let's give him a 10% jump in catch rate in a Duck and Mason-less world. What happens? 59 receptions and somewhere between 900 and 975 yards. Then consider Big Ben threw for at least 28 TD's in each 2016, 2017, and 2018 and it's tough to imagine a 96 target player getting any less than a half dozen of them. And this is being conservative!

I'm punting theoretical upside to another day, but I am confident saying his WR67 adp ain't right. My only question about ranking him in the top 50 is how much of a priority to make him. Cause this is the sorta profile that screams potential breakout.


I don't know why I'm gonna die on this hill but what the hell

Deon Cain > James Washington
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TheJayCutlers wrote:I don't know why I'm gonna die on this hill but what the hell

Deon Cain > James Washington


You could be right, and it could still be meaningless.

I know what his stats say, but NFL defenses are the best eye for talent and Diontae Johnson was the guy they were concerned about towards the end of the year. When you factor in that Claypool looks a lot more like the guy who's going to take Washington's reps than Diontae this just adds to my hesitancy with him.

The number 67 seems low, but I also don't particularly care about ordinance that late into the WR position group, as WR45-WR80 are all fliers
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That's a great point.
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zuggyawesome wrote:
TheJayCutlers wrote:I don't know why I'm gonna die on this hill but what the hell

Deon Cain > James Washington


You could be right, and it could still be meaningless.

I know what his stats say, but NFL defenses are the best eye for talent and Diontae Johnson was the guy they were concerned about towards the end of the year. When you factor in that Claypool looks a lot more like the guy who's going to take Washington's reps than Diontae this just adds to my hesitancy with him.

The number 67 seems low, but I also don't particularly care about ordinance that late into the WR position group, as WR45-WR80 are all fliers

If Claypool takes reps away from either of them for non-injury reasons I think it's more due to them and not him. He's a developmental HWS type that isn't getting that developmental work right now due to covid. What he does well right now Washington also does well, primarily at the catch point. The only thing he does better right now is run fast in a straight line. I think his plan A for 2020 is as a ST'er and backup to Johnson and Washington. The team was giving meaningful snaps to Johnny Holton, Deon Cain, and Tevin Jones last year and they don't want to be doing that again.

I think the primary purposes of his selection is as a potential JuJu contingency plan for 2021.
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I'll take D Johnson all day long over James Washington given their ADP's, especially in PPR. In standard scoring, it's a tossup. Washington to me is a complimentary WR who will have a big game or two over the season with a couple of long TD's and probably the same or close to what Johnson will put up and then not much for a spell and would be 3'rd in the target pecking order assuming all of them are healthy.

FWIW, not even sure Cain is a lock to make a non-expanded roster as he's best case WR6 given Ben's love for Ryan Switzer or stick around for the entire season if rosters contract over the season barring injuries. A lot depends on whether they keep a 4th RB (McFarland or Whyte). They look to keep 3 tight ends given McD's injury history unless they can stash one on the practice squad.
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i'm still loving where golden tate keeps coming in on rankings.
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getdownmmmkay wrote:i'm still loving where golden tate keeps coming in on rankings.

I'm not sure what to think about that whole passing attack. Will all 4 of Engram, Shepard, Tate, and Slayton eat into each other? or will 1 or 2 of them rise above? that is if they actually stay healthy this year. Cursory review of the 2019 data, nothing sticks out.

*Shepard's the most efficient WR - 69% catch rate, 11% better than Tate at a similar aDOT (just under 10) and had target shares over 20% in both the red zone and in the whole attack...but he's got the concussion history.
*Slayton's a playmaker downfield (14.2 aDOT!) but was incredibly inefficient, amassing more than 50% of his production on 12 of his 84 targets. He was a rookie though.
*And Tate kinda threads the needle between them - led the team in yards per route run, YAC/reception, and deep ball targets/TD's but a 58% catch rate at his aDOT is putrid. Aged 32 vs the mid 20something's above can't be ignored either.

If I had to pick one it'd be Shepard and this article convinced me why - https://www.si.com/nfl/giants/film/ster ... d-the-ugly. It helps that they're all being drafted in the same neighborhood too. So knee jerk, use Slayton as the trigger to draft Shepard but if I get sniped deploy Tate as plan B. Regardless, I like that the 3 WR's are being drafted as reserves. Cause no one wants to start them against those early season opponents and it'll provide samples of what to expect when the schedule eventually breaks and you need to use them.
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getdownmmmkay wrote:i'm still loving where golden tate keeps coming in on rankings.


Hey now I have him WR40. ADP has him at WR57. That feels like the right spot for them. The dudes in the Tier above are guys I see as having legit top 20 upside. I don't really that with Tate unless everyone in NY gets injured again.
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i'm likely higher on him than just about everyone. i think he's still the same guy he was before getting shipped off to philly, and i think recency bias is undervaluing him due to 1) the abbreviated time in philly, and 2) the 4 game suspension to start the year and rookie QB in NY last year.

i'm not going to try and convince anyone i'm right. the reasoning(s) for his rankings by others are entirely valid. i'm just not buying into them. see these stats cited by oar: "led the team in yards per route run, YAC/reception"....which is precisely his game. dude is (was? we'll see) an absolute monster after the catch.
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the Giants WRs are all priced accordingly and taking a shot on one of them is worth it.
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TheJayCutlers wrote:the Giants WRs are all priced accordingly and taking a shot on one of them is worth it.

Which one? and why? I see the potential value to be had, but not all of them are going to yield the same +EV.
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OarChambo wrote:
TheJayCutlers wrote:the Giants WRs are all priced accordingly and taking a shot on one of them is worth it.

Which one? and why? I see the potential value to be had, but not all of them are going to yield the same +EV.


if i knew that why would i tell anyone else? I'm saying they are all cheap:

Slayton WR43 100 overall
Shep WR49 107 overall
Tate WR54 127 overall

grab one and see if you're right. if you're not, move on you just wasted a 9th, 10th, or 12th round pick.
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TheJayCutlers wrote:
OarChambo wrote:
TheJayCutlers wrote:the Giants WRs are all priced accordingly and taking a shot on one of them is worth it.

Which one? and why? I see the potential value to be had, but not all of them are going to yield the same +EV.


if i knew that why would i tell anyone else?

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i got tonight's powerball numbers too
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I know that if there is a guy a lot of people like that is going in the 10th thru 12th rounds now, by the time real drafts happen they're gonna creep up to the 8th or so (cough Diontae cough).