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i think Kirk will be 2nd in targets behind Dhop. He will also have plenty of room in the slot to work with now that Dhop is in the picture. I expect a big year from Kyler this year. Im not sure about his adp but Kirk seems like he's more under the radar now so ill probably be taking a look at him.
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OarChambo wrote:
FantasyHussy wrote:Point well taken. I'm on the Christian Kirk bandwagon.

Why? He was 32nd in per game scoring without Nuk despite a 23% target share. A 63% catch rate with a 10 aDOT isn't terrible, but it's far from good. He was actually more efficient his rookie year in that groin grabbingly awful offense than he was in Kliff's circus last year. And all 3 of his touchdowns last year came in just one game.


The offense will be better overall with a sophomore Kyler, better Oline, and a legit #1 WR to open things up. If everyone is projecting Kyler to set the league on fire and we reserve about 1200 yards for DHop, Kirk will have every opportunity to bust out as well. With a 73rd percentile college dominator rating and a 93rd percentile breakout age, we're talking about a legitimately good receiver next to Hopkins.

Put another way, I'd much rather draft him at his price than Calvin Ridley.
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I don't think Kirk was quite right last year after he hurt is foot/ankle.

Not to mention the touchdown regression that should happen. If he sees 100-110 targets like I think he will, he should get 6-8 touchdowns out of it as well.
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I should also mention it feels absurd to project anyone for more than 12 games this year so just bear with me for not including a *covid on every discussion.
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TheJayCutlers wrote:I should also mention it feels absurd to project anyone for more than 12 games this year so just bear with me for not including a *covid on every discussion.

Agreed. Roster depth will be more important than ever. Guys that have had it already should get a slight bump IMO, if only for the increased likelyhood they will play all 16.
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rugger48 wrote:
mstrbass2000 wrote:
FantasyHussy wrote:I reserved Tier 1 for players with more than one season of WR1 production. Godwin also has enough question marks to not quite be a Tier 1 slam dunk:

1) New QB, even if it is Brady
2) Better team, decent defense, and far less turnovers at QB = less target opportunities
3) Big chunk of production came in garbage time last year. Don't envision many situations like that for Tampa Bay this year.
4) Gronk's presence may lead to a little more vascillation between with his target share week-to-week

Of course, Godwin is a supreme talent and he can easily overcome all of the above. By having him in Tier 2, it's mostly a reminder to me that I shouldn't overpay for him with some of the Tier 2 RBs available.


you could say the same of hopkins though "new qb,crowded field" i have godwin and hopkins tied


In no way will I compare Tampa’s to arizona as far as receivers. Yes they have Hopkins , and have donn some guys that need to prove themselves. Bucs?


Im not saying Arizona can’t compete, but the bucs are stacked with guys who can catch.


I think Godwin takes a hit in the consistency dep.


i don't think godwin takes a hit at all,brady is gonna love him some godwin with evans taking the top off and the triple threat at te going down the seam
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TheJayCutlers wrote:I don't think Kirk was quite right last year after he hurt is foot/ankle.

Not to mention the touchdown regression that should happen. If he sees 100-110 targets like I think he will, he should get 6-8 touchdowns out of it as well.

Thanks, forgot about the bad wheel. I think that needs to be the proven narrative to expect that high teens target share. Still digging into the details of those ranked around him, but it appears as though that's how he's currently priced.

Has anyone even read a theory on why Isabella wasn't used more last year? Another year like 2019 aside, I think he could also threaten Kirk's workload. He badly needs some summer buzz though.
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OarChambo wrote:
TheJayCutlers wrote:I don't think Kirk was quite right last year after he hurt is foot/ankle.

Not to mention the touchdown regression that should happen. If he sees 100-110 targets like I think he will, he should get 6-8 touchdowns out of it as well.

Thanks, forgot about the bad wheel. I think that needs to be the proven narrative to expect that high teens target share. Still digging into the details of those ranked around him, but it appears as though that's how he's currently priced.

Has anyone even read a theory on why Isabella wasn't used more last year? Another year like 2019 aside, I think he could also threaten Kirk's workload. He badly needs some summer buzz though.


I haven't seen a word about it.

Isabella was working out with Kyler in a recent video at least.
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Nice job on both RB and WR lists. I think after reviewing both it’s apparent how much depth at WR there is this year and I’ll prob plan on going RB heavy early approach more than likely this year in first few rounds. It’s not only so much the depth at WR but the depth of guys with great potential like mclaurin, chark, Parker, Metcalf etc
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Doing a mock with the staff right now.

mj021407 wrote:Nice job on both RB and WR lists. I think after reviewing both it’s apparent how much depth at WR there is this year and I’ll prob plan on going RB heavy early approach more than likely this year in first few rounds. It’s not only so much the depth at WR but the depth of guys with great potential like mclaurin, chark, Parker, Metcalf etc


And I agree.

Rd 2 Nuk
Rd 3 Evans
Rd 5 Sutton
Rd 6 AJ Green

Had options to pick up all the guys you mentioned too. I think it's going to get murky soon though.