Budmonsan wrote:And they we’re saying his arm was dead. Seems pretty lively the past two games.
I haven't been able to watch any of his games this year. Does anyone have an opinion as to whether:
a) they've faced bad defenses, or
b) the offense is humming regardless of opponent?
In the playoffs, I assume that their biggest opponents will have a good to great defense, so I'm wondering whether the recent success is maintainable against a great defense.
Looking at MFL stats:
-Last 3 opponents have had horrible defenses (MIN #26 against pass, ATL #30, DET #29), and this coming week they face ATL again. So that won't give any indication of how they'll fare in the playoffs.
-Week 12 (they had a bye Week 13), they faced the Chiefs (#16 OPP PASS) and Brady put up stats (27/41 for 345 and 3 TD, but 2 INT).
Looking at his season overall, and ignoring all of the other variables (e.g., injuries to WR, how early in the season, etc.) and only looking at this "OPP PASS" metric, there is some concerning data...
Overall Average (15 games): 25 completions out of 38 attempts (66%), for 282.3 yards and 2.6 TD
Average against #20 or lower OPP PASS (8 games): 26.5 completions out of 38 attempts (70%), for 324 yards and 3.125 TD
Average against #14 or higher OPP PASS (6 games): 23 completions out of 38 attempts (60%), for 217 yards and 1.6 TD
Average against #10 or higher OPP PASS (3 games): 25 completions out of 41 attempts (60%), for 229 yards and 1.33 TD
So... what does this mean? Absolutely nothing, all that matters is how they execute in the playoffs. But it does show that the stats are inflated by feasting on horrible defenses.
The good news is if they win against ATL, they're locked into the #5 seed and get to face the NFC East Division Champion (currently WAS, but DAL and NYG could win it). Unfortunately, if the #2 Saints and #3 Seahawks win in the first round, TB is headed to GB to face the #1 Packers in the second round, but they're in the middle of the pack for OPP DEF so who knows.