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hard 10 wrote:
bluemist wrote:He is 17th in our league in per-game points.

It's early, but so far this thread's premise has been a bust.


I'm not opposed to drafting QBs very early (or paying big $ for them in auctions), and I did just that in three leagues this season, but picking the wrong one will screw you.*
I went with Mahomes (with Jackson still available) and Murray, and it's working out just fine.


* a first round bust at ANY position is hard to overcome. There are a lot of teams that drafted Saquon, McCaffrey, or Mike Thomas who are worse Lamar Jackson teams right now.

Agreed that the premise has been a bust. Right now it's looking like Kyler Murray is the closest thing we are seeing to last years (later round) LJ pick.

I have a team that went Saquon-LJ rounds 1-2. That team is not only going to be 0-5, but is averaging around 90 points per game in a half-PPR league with otherwise standard scoring. Early round busts hurt.
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We can’t control The Harbaugh.
One of the best teams in the NFL and so far, none of these guys are killing it in fantasy.
What are you gonna do?
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Can't wait to see Steelers-Ravens this week. Will be a tough matchup for Lamar.

I think the Ravens know they need to win this game to better their playoff positioning and they've had the bye week to prepare. Lamar may need to run. A lot.
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I think the line is 5.5 which is too rich for me.

Although the Steelers are coming off a grueling match with the Titans, while the Ravens are at home coming off a bye. I like the Ravens in this one but not sure I can give almost a TD.
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endzoneview wrote:I think the line is 5.5 which is too rich for me.

Although the Steelers are coming off a grueling match with the Titans, while the Ravens are at home coming off a bye. I like the Ravens in this one but not sure I can give almost a TD.

I think a lot of people agreed with you, I read that the line has moved to -3.5 in most spots.
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The premise is flawed. Even in a superflex it is dicey, but in a standard league, IMO, it is foolish to take a QB in the first. Lamar's numbers were spectacular last year, but he won leagues for his owners because of how late he was drafted. This year you could have drafted a RB and waited on QB and gotten much better results than taking LJ or Mahomes early.
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bluemist wrote:The premise is flawed. Even in a superflex it is dicey, but in a standard league, IMO, it is foolish to take a QB in the first. Lamar's numbers were spectacular last year, but he won leagues for his owners because of how late he was drafted. This year you could have drafted a RB and waited on QB and gotten much better results than taking LJ or Mahomes early.


yep, could have drafted Saquon and waited for Dak :P

It's fantasy, it's a game. Go get the guys you want to watch play on Sunday.
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endzoneview wrote:
bluemist wrote:The premise is flawed. Even in a superflex it is dicey, but in a standard league, IMO, it is foolish to take a QB in the first. Lamar's numbers were spectacular last year, but he won leagues for his owners because of how late he was drafted. This year you could have drafted a RB and waited on QB and gotten much better results than taking LJ or Mahomes early.


yep, could have drafted Saquon and waited for Dak :P

It's fantasy, it's a game. Go get the guys you want to watch play on Sunday.

I drafted Henry @ 2 overall in my home league. Why? Because I wanted to watch him play. Everyone else said to pick Zeke. Who cares.
Or you could have drafted Alvin, Murray or Jones and waited for Russ, Kyler or Deshaun.
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OR you could have drafted.....

the point is, more than one way to draft. Above all, draft your team.
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To each their own. Everyone has their own strategies, style and preferences and there’s more than one way to win a lg (along with some luck).

There’s also always risk in this game due to injuries so nothing and no player is guaranteed.

But having said that, I agree with blue and don’t think in standard lgs you should take a qb early because if you run the numbers, it shows why. Yes, numbers mean nothing when a guy gets hurt on the first play of the first game and is out for the season but that’s the thing with this game. You play on probability (and a few hunches).
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And btw, whenever I have a close call between players, I take the guy I personally like or want to watch and root for every Sunday so I get that too EZV.
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Early round busts are early round busts... I present you my shark team where I was blessed with the 1st pick and went with a balanced draft.
CMC
Lev Bell, 3rd
OBJ in the 5th
White 6th
Hilton 7th

Team is 3-4 by some miracle.

*EDIT*
Looking at it, almost my entire draft was a bust outside of QB and kicker.
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This "experiment" was the first time I went with QB early, got LJ in the 2nd in two different leagues.

One team is 4-3, 3rd place, trending the right direction. But Lamar isn't the reason.

Other team is 0-7 (Saquon-Lamar-OBJ-Gordon in the first 4, and traded Gordon for Drake). Lamar is part of the reason (but there are many - its the biggest disaster of a team I've ever had in fantasy).

I'll call the experiment a failure but it's been interesting. Back to picking QBs late next year :Drink)
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farhad7 wrote:This "experiment" was the first time I went with QB early, got LJ in the 2nd in two different leagues.

One team is 4-3, 3rd place, trending the right direction. But Lamar isn't the reason.

I'll call the experiment a failure but it's been interesting. Back to picking QBs late next year :Drink)


My story is about the same. 4-3 and in 3rd place.

I ultimately decided to give this experiment a try for a few reasons. One, I have the most championships in the league I did this in. So I do admit there WAS an element of ego there. I viewed it as a "challenge". Also I was drafting at the elbow so I decided to even double down on the experiment by going QB-TE (Kelce). Second, I didn't really prepare for the draft at all, so making these picks made it brainless. Three, it's 2020! I just figured it's ALREADY a f-ed up year, felt "right" at the time. I DID forget that I am going for a threepeat this year (despite all my wins I don't have a threepeat) so I may have shot myself in the foot there.

Anyway... I am always an extremely active manager and that's why I'm still competitive. That, and picking up James Robinson before the season started helped alot with shoring up my RBs.

Having said that... because the experiment has basically failed (league scoring differs but in my league Lamar is the #15 QB in avg. scoring) I am now carrying 3 QBs, which I also normally never do (but we did expand rosters this year due to COVID). I am playing matchups between Tannehill and Herbert, and don't envision that changing unless somehow the Ravens changed something after the bye. But for now I feel like I have to hold onto LJax. That might change in a few weeks....

The team in the #1 spot is 6-1 and mostly has been just incredibly lucky. He did draft Russell, who has mostly carried his team. But he's won even in weeks where he only posted like 100 points. Winning those games where you are the 2nd worst scoring in the league but just happened to play the worst scoring team is a big part of winning it all. The luck there plays more into than people like to admit.

But anyway... that's a very long winded way to say that I fight on and there's reason to believe I'm trending up and the other guys are trending down, but it's not due to LJax and I will go back to being the last person to draft a QB next year. :lol:
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