2021 Rookies: WR edition

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ubertaco wrote:
zuggyawesome wrote:I need more people to buy into this "Lamar can't Pass" narrative.


Well...

Perhaps you should look at where the WRs he threw to rank in terms of fantasy production as that seems to be the point here.

No doubt Lamar has turned into a fantasy powerhouse at QB, but he hasn't translated that into massive fantasy production from his WR corp.

TE? Yep, gotta love Andrews, who got ~20 of those 60 TDs Lamar threw.

Do you know off the top of your head how many yards the leading WR for Balitmore has had in the last 2 years?


Lamar's big bodied receiver with a large catch radius (Mark Andrews) has done alright.

He's not an elite passer, but he's borderline average.. and with his ability to extend the play that could allow a big bodied separator like Bateman to explode.

Low accuracy QBs like Cam Newton have had a lot of success with big bodied receivers who just need the opportunity to go get it.
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Andrews has done alright, and Bateman is a great talent, but can they coexist and both get fed appropriately?

Maybe Bateman will break the mold the Ravens offense seems to have set with the way they use their WRs, but I'm going to reserve judgement on that because I'm not sure why they would change a formula which has worked well enough to this point.

Not as though they have a ton of holes to fill elsewhere, so I think the Bateman pick is a good one, and I'm sure he will help the team.

I'm not convinced he will move the needle much for fantasy owners though.
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zuggyawesome wrote:Low accuracy QBs like Cam Newton have had a lot of success with big bodied receivers who just need the opportunity to go get it.



So, then explain Myles Boykin's complete lack of success?

Lamar has been successful in spite of Greg Roman, period. Going back to 2011, Roman's offenses have literally NEVER produced a WR2 that was relevant in fantasy. Most years you'd have to add his WR1 and his WR2's stats to make one good fantasy WR.
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SJSwarm wrote:
zuggyawesome wrote:Low accuracy QBs like Cam Newton have had a lot of success with big bodied receivers who just need the opportunity to go get it.



So, then explain Myles Boykin's complete lack of success?

Lamar has been successful in spite of Greg Roman, period. Going back to 2011, Roman's offenses have literally NEVER produced a WR2 that was relevant in fantasy. Most years you'd have to add his WR1 and his WR2's stats to make one good fantasy WR.


In all honesty Boykin has been a dissapointment....I might even say he has a tendency to run the wrong routes...But that is all about to change as we have Bateman in town now! \:D/
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Unless Bateman is an extreme outlier, he won’t make a fantasy impact in 2021.

In the last decade, the best fantasy season from any WR2 in Greg Romans offense was Michael Crabtree when he put up 800 ish and 4 TD’s. Even Robert Woods was trash in his scheme.
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*Bateman the prospect already came with some amount of bust risk
*If that doesn't come to fruition then Brown will not hold Bateman back
*Bateman's skill set is a good match with Lamar and he ain't anything like Boykin
*Rookies shouldn't be drafted based on what they will do year one - it's about what they can do by the end of it but more so, year two and beyond
*I don't expect the same Ravens offense as the last 2 years
*And right or wrong, Roman ain't coming back if this passing offense struggles again in '21

It'd be a lot cooler if Bateman had not been drafted by a relatively low volume passing offense, but I'm not wavering much in my valuation of him because of it.
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Yeah if you are betting on the future, and betting that Roman doesn’t have some dirt on the Harbaugh brothers that keeps him employed, that is fine. But the Ravens fan was talking about how many passing TD’s Lamar had in the last two years, which is what I was responding to. Mentioning how many passing TD’s Lamar threw under Roman would indicate to me that he is hopeful for short term production, which history indicates isn’t happening in a Greg Roman offense. Everrrrrrrrr.
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I don't think a bet on Bateman is necessarily contingent on Roman getting whacked.
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OarChambo wrote:I don't think a bet on Bateman is necessarily contingent on Roman getting whacked.



Then you don’t believe in Hollywood?
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SJSwarm wrote:
zuggyawesome wrote:Low accuracy QBs like Cam Newton have had a lot of success with big bodied receivers who just need the opportunity to go get it.



So, then explain Myles Boykin's complete lack of success?

Lamar has been successful in spite of Greg Roman, period. Going back to 2011, Roman's offenses have literally NEVER produced a WR2 that was relevant in fantasy. Most years you'd have to add his WR1 and his WR2's stats to make one good fantasy WR.


Do you think Boykins wouldve had success in any system?

He had next to no production in college and got drafted in the third round after testing like a freak athlete.. hardly a high hit rate prospect
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SJSwarm wrote:
OarChambo wrote:I don't think a bet on Bateman is necessarily contingent on Roman getting whacked.



Then you don’t believe in Hollywood?


As a WR1? Absolutely not
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I don't believe any pass catcher on the Ravens not named Andrews is going to put up numbers anyone should be interested in. Yes, of course, ADP and all that non withstanding, but with so many more explosive passing attacks in the NFL it makes much more sense to throw darts at WRs on other teams than the Ravens.

Well, in dyno at least Bateman will certainly wind up clogging up rosters, maybe he'll buck the trend, but I won't be the one holding him to find out.
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ubertaco wrote:I don't believe any pass catcher on the Ravens not named Andrews is going to put up numbers anyone should be interested in. Yes, of course, ADP and all that non withstanding, but with so many more explosive passing attacks in the NFL it makes much more sense to throw darts at WRs on other teams than the Ravens.

Well, in dyno at least Bateman will certainly wind up clogging up rosters, maybe he'll buck the trend, but I won't be the one holding him to find out.


What Trend? We have one year of useable data on Lamar's WR1. Marquise was a rookie recovering from lisfranc surgery... on a snap count in 2019 and he still put up almost 600 yards. Seth Roberts and rookie Myles Boykin weren't going to put up stats on many QBs as a Wr1.
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I would not fault anyone who looks at the last 4-5 years in particular at BAL including pre Roman/Lamar stats and uses the consistent low volume passing stats as a tiebreaker in passing on Bateman in favor of Moore, Moore or Marshall given what I think is a pretty close ranking of all 4 in particular if you gather a wide sample size of what’s out there pundit wise.

All things equal, I’d take Bateman in a generic pre draft rank but everything’s not equal anymore.

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Unrelated but get used to Alabama & LSU continuing putting out high end wide receivers if their recruiting class this year are a leading indicator. The 2 schools alone snagged 7 of the top 13 rated WRs including Alabama who got 3 of the top 6
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SJSwarm wrote:
OarChambo wrote:I don't think a bet on Bateman is necessarily contingent on Roman getting whacked.



Then you don’t believe in Hollywood?

I quit on him as a potential alpha sometime last year. We'll see if he takes to being a complimentary weapon.