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Remember - if you disagree with me, that's fine, but you're wrong and I hate you.

Tier 1: The No Doubters
1. Michael Thomas, NO
2. Davante Adams, GB - If anyone is overtaking Thomas, it's Davante. Noone touches his redzone upside.
3. Julio Jones, ATL
4. Tyreek Hill, KC
5. DeAndre Hopkins, ARI

Tier 2: Target hogs I'm very comfortable drafting as my WR1
6. Allen Robinson, CHI - It's sad to note that this may be the best QB situation Robinson has ever had. That should give you confidence in his WR1 upside after a really solid 2019 season. Zero target competition.
7. Chris Godwin, TB
8. JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT - Stop. Just stop trying to make Diontae Johnson happen. It might happen, but it aint happenin at the expense of Juju. He's had an alpha profile since sophomore year of college, he's still super young, and he dealt with injuries and the worst QB situation in the league last year.
9. Odell Beckham Jr., CLE
10. Kenny Golladay, DET
11. D.J. Moore, CAR
12. Adam Thielen, MIN - A backdoor threat to finish in the top 5. Should enjoy a huge target share on a team with a good QB that should be a little pass-heavier than last year.
13. Mike Evans, TB

Tier 3: Potential target hog WR2s with top 10 status in their range of outcomes
14. Robert Woods, LAR
15. D.J. Chark, JAC - Want 2020's Chris Godwin? Chark will be doing a ton of damage in a pass-heavy offense that should be trailing a lot in the 4th quarter.
16. Calvin Ridley, ATL
17. Tyler Lockett, SEA - He suffered an injury midway through the year, and now he's suddenly a middling WR2 on a lot of boards. Stop disrespecting him. The most hyper-efficient WR in the league. If they actually let Russ cook, watch out.
18. Amari Cooper, DAL
19. Terry McLaurin, WAS
20. A.J. Brown, TEN
21. Cooper Kupp, LAR - His talent is undeniable, but his snap shares in the second half of last season are a cause for concern. Robert Woods has to be the WR you prioritize in this offense.

Tier 4: WR2s who have varying degrees of upside and question marks
22. T.Y. Hilton, IND
23. A.J. Green, CIN - If he's healthy, why are we playing this game where he's not one of the 10 best WRs in the league? If anyone will make me feel stupid about where I ranked them, it's probably AJ.
24. DeVante Parker, MIA
25. D.K. Metcalf, SEA
26. Keenan Allen, LAC - I like the price, and he's always been a top talent. Being able to pick him in the 4th or 5th round is a testament to the WR depth in the NFL right now.
27. Courtland Sutton, DEN
28. Tyler Boyd, CIN
29. Stefon Diggs, BUF
30. Jarvis Landry, CLE - I'm underrating him like everyone else. You wont be excited drafted him, but you will be when he just produces every week.

Tier 5: Ideal flex plays with exciting upside
31. Marquise Brown, BAL
32. Marvin Jones, DET - Perennially underrated. One of the best redzone/vertical threats in the league. Enjoy his draft day discount.
33. Jamison Crowder, NYJ
34. Christian Kirk, ARI - Total target hog with Kyler last year. Is it too crazy to suggest he outpaces Hopkins? If I can price him as a WR3, I'd love to find out.
35. Will Fuller, HOU
36. Michael Gallup, DAL
37. CeeDee Lamb, DAL - On 83 targets, Cobb was the WR47 last year. Lamb will walk into that and has more talent than the other receivers above him. That's no disrespect to them, but Lamb is just filthy. If he's your WR4, you're cooking with gas.
38. Deebo Samuel, SF

Tier 6: Solid flex plays, if not exciting
39. DeSean Jackson, PHI - Weird to see how low he's ranked. Jeffrey is a JAG PUPpy. Reagor is his backup right now, not a threat. He actually is an exciting flex candidate, but I understand all the injury concerns. He's currently WR48 based on ADP. Steal em.
40. Golden Tate, NYG
41. Julian Edelman, NE
42. Sterling Shepard, NYG
43. Brandin Cooks, HOU - He deserves more respect than this based on his production, but I truly have no idea what to make of Houston's offense except that Deshaun will find a way to light it up. In some weeks, Cooks will be the beneficiary.
44. John Brown, BUF
45. Robby Anderson, CAR
46. Mike Williams, LAC - He will suffer due to the QB situation. Not Keenan.
47. Emmanuel Sanders, NO

Tier 7: Take a couple as your WR4/5, and see if you stumble into serious value
48. N'Keal Harry, NE - Cam has a history of making WR2/3s out of guys like him. I would stash and see what happens.
49. Henry Ruggs III, LV - My favorite non-Lamb rookie WR. Should enjoy a healthy target share. With his speed, that means he could really outplay his ADP. I'd take him ahead of the Tier 6 guys if I'm pretty solid at my WR starter positions.
50. Diontae Johnson, PIT
51. Preston Williams, MIA
52. Mecole Hardman, KC - Supplanting Watkins and finishing in the top 25 is in his range of outcomes. Only needs a couple targets to win you a week.
53. Anthony Miller, CHI
54. Justin Jefferson, MIN
55. Darius Slayton, NYG
56. Michael Pittman Jr., IND
57. Denzel Mims, NYJ - There is a universe where he finishes in the top 40 as a rook. Current ADP is outside the top 70 (?). Are you really falling for the Perriman thing again?
58. Curtis Samuel, CAR
59. Allen Lazard, GB
60. Jerry Jeudy, DEN
61. Laviska Shenault Jr., JAC - Shhhhhh.
62. Jalen Reagor, PHI
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finally a list i can get behind because Corey Davis isn't on it

(might be too low on Anthony Miller but I completely understand folks not buying in to him)
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TheJayCutlers wrote:finally a list i can get behind because Corey Davis isn't on it

(might be too low on Anthony Miller but I completely understand folks not buying in to him)


I've vacillated on Miller constantly. I've had him at the bottom of Tier 5/6 at different times.
Ultimately, I think I'm most comfortable drafting him as a dart throw instead of a flex starter right away.
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That's the nice thing with Miller, his price is as a bench player for now.
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Anthony Miller's got 2 major issues. Each by itself isn't a deal breaking problem, but the combination is lethal. He is on a team heading towards certain doom and there is a clearly superior option on the rooster. Look over the breakout WR's in recent years and this combination does not lead to top 20 WR's. Tyler Boyd's WR19 performance in 2018 is the only one I see the last 4 years, but he mixed in some AJ Green-free weeks in there too.

So in order for Miller to really be anything better than a WR3 (and this is upside) he needs an Allen Robinson injury or for the Chicago Bears to suddenly and unexpectedly stop sucking. He's talented enough to justify a dart throw at some point, but I share the sentiment in actively trying to find alternatives inside the top 50. Cause what I'm looking for in guys in the top 50 are guys that if they ceiling can be top 20.
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Add in his balky shoulder too.

I don't like to label guys injury prone. I do get concerned when it's the same injury multiple times.
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My concern with Juju isn't Diontae (who will actually help him if he's as good as his truthers believe); it's Big Ben.

We've seen what this offense looks like when PIT doesn't believe in their QBs, and Big Ben is an old 38 coming back from a serious injury and has been beaten up throughout his NFL career.
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zuggyawesome wrote:My concern with Juju isn't Diontae (who will actually help him if he's as good as his truthers believe); it's Big Ben.

We've seen what this offense looks like when PIT doesn't believe in their QBs, and Big Ben is an old 38 coming back from a serious injury and has been beaten up throughout his NFL career.


https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0107985/

watch that and you'll realize he'll be fine
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:lol:
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just pray for Juju and Diontae's hands with those fastballs coming in
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zuggyawesome wrote:My concern with Juju isn't Diontae (who will actually help him if he's as good as his truthers believe); it's Big Ben.

We've seen what this offense looks like when PIT doesn't believe in their QBs, and Big Ben is an old 38 coming back from a serious injury and has been beaten up throughout his NFL career.


Legitimate concerns. It's shocking that the Steelers didn't invest in a backup QB at all this offseason. Their backup QBs are the worst I've ever seen - and I've seen Ty Detmer and late-stage Jeff Garcia on the Lions.
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James Washington is being criminally under valued in the Pittsburgh WR room.

16.7 ypr (10th in leeg)
9.2 ypt (22nd)
15.8 aDOT
mediocre catch rate metrics but due to the dredge at QB a hliarious 1/3 of his passes were deemed uncatchable

He had a messy start with Big Ben in 18, but to make the progress that he did last year in that situation should have been a needle mover. And it hasn't.

So let's try to figure out his range of potential outcomes. This offense threw 689 times in 2018 with Big Ben at QB and James Conner the primary RB. That may be a stretch in an AB-less world, but he threw almost 600 times in each 2016 and 2017 and that was with a substantially more durable Le'Veon Bell in tow. So lets call the low end 600 attempts. Assume no growth in his target share (16%). But let's give him a 10% jump in catch rate in a Duck and Mason-less world. What happens? 59 receptions and somewhere between 900 and 975 yards. Then consider Big Ben threw for at least 28 TD's in each 2016, 2017, and 2018 and it's tough to imagine a 96 target player getting any less than a half dozen of them. And this is being conservative!

I'm punting theoretical upside to another day, but I am confident saying his WR67 adp ain't right. My only question about ranking him in the top 50 is how much of a priority to make him. Cause this is the sorta profile that screams potential breakout.
Last edited by OarChambo on Tue 06.30.2020, 19:11, edited 1 time in total.
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Washington should definitely be in Tier 7 with all those other dart throws. Agreed.
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I will have to see how BB looks in preseason before buying into the Steeler WRs. As has been stated here, in Ben goes down again they literally have no competent replacement.

Still, Washington is exactly the type of guy I want as my WR5/6.
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Loving that Tier 4 group. AJ, Keenan and Diggs are all guys I like to out preform their current ADPs. Love me some Cooks, Sanders and F1 also. Lots of viable guys in this year's draft, so I will probably hope to grab one of the tier 2 guys and then hoard in Tiers 4-6.
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