Monday - Jan 18, 2021

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Great Teller of Fortune in Fantasy Football

I’ve heard names like “Swami,” “Guru,” “Prognosticator,” “Oracle” and “Psychic” to describe people who hit the nail on the head with respect to fantasy sports. You can be a statistician, a number cruncher, someone who uses and studies figures or an educated guesser.


figures lie and liars figure. None of the magazines or articles are going to help you win your league. Sure news plays a part, like Steve Smith’s two-game suspension. You can adjust his catch and yardage total based on him not playing two games.

I predict that I will claim my league’s title again this year. Based on the opportunities of the players on the draft board, I will make the correct pick.

How do I do that?

1. By understanding the team’s offensive strategy of the player I’m drafting

2. Knowing the veteran players should be the first off the board

3. Looking at the number of targets a player has

4. Checking the injury report

5. Knowing the depth charts

6. Gambling in later rounds after I have acquired starters

7. Staying away from drafting a TE early (lots of them)

8. Remembering that kickers are still a joke

9. That there are five defenses that I can get in a 12-team league that can do it for me.

10. Knowing the players that surround your prospect

I don’t look at ADP. I simply don’t care where players went in someone else’s draft. I care where the player is selected in my draft. Having the players I want ranked in order for position is something I do 10 minutes before I draft.

It’s a pre-draft routine. I get a fresh can of

Copenhagen, a number two pencil, paper and a cold one. I look for the QB who most resembles Jim McMahon. Jimmy Mac is one of the better leaders I have ever watched. I look for running styles close to that of my favorite all time backs (Faulk and Dickerson).

I look for one undersized wonder WR with a chip on his shoulder (Steve Smith).

I grab a prototypical sized wideout who didn’t run as fast in the forty as he should have, with sure hands in late rounds (Malcolm Kelly this year).

I find a security blanket WR (Wes Welker).

I mark off my opponents’ selections and note what they need to complete their team. This helps me in later rounds. I take a chance on a rookie RB every year who looks to get work early as my #3 or #4 back. I understand that guys look at a myriad of things like strength of schedule, ADP, average points per week and trends.

I do not ignore the data. I just don’t overwhelm myself with analyzing every last detail.

After all fantasy sports is about fun for me.

Remember dude: You aren’t playing the actual game. You are just some tool like me who needs an additional stake in a laughable Dolphins vs. Lions game and you are stuck because it’s the only game on in your market. (Hope Ted Ginn Jr. scores!)

I predict that everyone that reads this will realize ADP is a company that specializes in paychecks and outsourcing.

Lighten up, the worst part of the year is over.

It’s football season!

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