Saturday - Jan 19, 2019

Home / Commentary / THE GRIND: DFS Week 12

THE GRIND: DFS Week 12

While everybody is focusing on the giant Thanksgiving Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) slate, let’s dive into the main slate on Sunday. Reading content and gathering information on a full stomach has proven to be an effective tactic for me in the past, so I highly recommend it. We take on a slate this week without New Orleans, Kansas City, and the Los Angeles Rams, Julio Jones or Ezekiel Elliott. Value is incredibly hard to come by and finding the gems to separate your lineup from the pack is even more important this week without a slew of superstars up top to bail you out. Enough fooling around, I know you must be getting tired from how much you ate.

DRAFT KINGS

QB Baker Mayfield ($5,500) – Cincinnati vs. Cleveland is a potential sneaky shootout spot that could see both teams approaching or exceeding 27 points if things break right. Taking the upside into consideration along with the fact that Mayfield is playing better football – throwing multiple touchdowns in four straight outings – leads me to believe he is the best value at quarterback on the slate. The Cincinnati defense has surrendered 295 passing yards per game in 2018, ranking 31st in the league.

RB Matt Breida ($5,700) – The opponent could not make Breida in a better spot here at only $5,700. If Breida was taking on a Top 10 defense, I would still probably play him given his guaranteed usage and upside all the while holding serve in the salary department. Saquon Barkley found the end zone three times against the Tampa Bay defense last week and there is nothing holding Breida back from hitting pay-dirt at least once against the 30th-ranked defense in running back points against per contest.

RB Melvin Gordon ($8,600) – Paying up for the stud I know will get to his floor of 21 points at the very minimum. The Los Angeles Chargers have proven the type of offense they want to run and Gordon is a fixture of the passing game in it. In games Gordon has at least one rushing touchdown, he has averaged over 26 points per. He is the elite play on a slate where you better hit on the stud you decide to pay up for.

WR Josh Gordon ($6,400) – It really is pretty simple. With his full integration into the New England offense, seeing 22 targets over his last two games, Gordon has the upside to be a week-winning option. The New York Jets are a Bottom 8 defense against wide receivers in full points per reception (PPR) scoring, and New England will be looking to get the offense back on track after getting shut down by Tennessee prior to bye week. With the extra preparation, expect an additional designed play or three to New England’s most explosive offensive weapon.

WR Keenan Allen ($7,100) – I rarely ever play a running back and wide receiver from the same team, but it definitely needs to be considered this week. Allen is seeing higher usage these last three weeks and he, like Gordon, provides a tremendous floor in full PPR. Allen is priced below much more inconsistent options in Mike Evans and JuJu Smith-Schuster. I am not scared of Patrick Peterson nearly as much as the field will be, which makes Allen both playable in tournaments and cash games.

WR D.J. Moore ($4,600) – Call it point chasing if you want, but you can’t watch this future star play and believe his usage will drop anytime soon. Yes he been inconsistent over the past month, but a player at $4,600 who is used in both the passing and running games and who has redzone plays designed to him is simply to difficult to pass up at such a low price. Especially since value wideouts are increasingly harder to come by this week, Moore is absolutely in the mix, despite some who might avoid him because he scored 31 points last week.

TE Cameron Brate ($3,600) – Brate is the tight end chalk this week, but I am all for it. His price was determined without the news about my boy O.J. Howard going on Injured Reserve. Brate scored last time Howard missed a game earlier this season and he has always shown a solid rapport, a better rapport, with Jameis Winston over Ryan Fitzpatrick.

FLEX WR Doug Baldwin ($5,100) – Baldwin is back to breaking defensive backs’ ankles and more importantly turning their hips at will. His price tag of only $5,100 in a game with the over/under approaching 50 points makes him a great bet to catch another 6-7 balls. He is devastating to secondaries in the red zone and I believe a blow up game or two is still on tap in 2018. The Carolina defensive backs have been better as a unit in recent weeks believe it or not, but have still been torched by better talents. Baldwin is a great value play this week.

DEF Baltimore Ravens ($3,300) – I scroll to whatever defense is playing against Derek Carr, and lock it in.

About John Lanfranca