Sunday - Jan 20, 2019

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THE GRIND: DFS Week 8

One of the more interesting weeks of the season is upon us as the Chiefs and Rams both return to the main slate. It’s not every Sunday you glance at the Vegas Lines and see Aaron Rodgers as a double-digit underdog with the total soaring over 55 points. As enticing as that game is, you will really have to take a stand when it comes to fitting in elite players in your lineup. The Lions/Seahawks total is approaching 50, the Steelers/Browns is already there and we haven’t even discussed potential shoot-outs for the Broncos/Chiefs and Bucs/Bengals.

There are several ways to attack these slates, but first and foremost is your decision to play Todd Gurley. For me the answer is almost always a resounding yes, especially when we are talking about smaller field tournaments and cash games. By all means, do not be afraid to leave him off your lineup in large field tournaments though, as you will be able to create combinations of value you simply cannot afford otherwise.

A week ago, we pegged some great values here on The Grind in the Colts Defense and John Brown, among others. Let’s build on it this week and make some cash along the way.

DRAFT KINGS

QB Matthew Stafford (5600) – He is simply just under-priced here considering his high floor/high ceiling combo inside the dome. Take away his Week 1 stinker and he has proven himself to us at this price, delivering 3X value on his price is pretty much a given and should be looked at as his floor. The Lions possess the weaponry and balance on offense to put up plenty of points at home in a game where their team total is creeping up to around 27 points.

RB Todd Gurley (9800) – Every game this season he has scored between 25.6 and 39.5 points on Draft Kings. I don’t see much changing. He is featured in the redzone more than any other player we have seen in the past decade and plays on a virtually unstoppable offense. None of this is news to you, but it reiterates the fact that Gurley is a must play across all sites in most daily contests. As I said, and will show in my Fanduel build, there are ways to not play him and gain value in large field tournaments, which I will do as you scroll down.

RB James Conner (7500) – Conner is one motivated dude, and with his hard nosed style of play, there really isn’t any reason to ever fade him in a good matchup. Boasting three 30-point outings this season already, his biggest vs the Browns back in Week 1, Conner has the ceiling to win weeks for your team. Only catching under 4 passes in a game once all season long makes him a solid floor play too. Only the Ravens have been able to shut down the Steelers on the ground, and while the Browns defense is a solid unit, they are not in the class of the Ravens.

WR Davante Adams (7900) – Three reasons why I am fitting Adams into as many lineups as possible this weekend. 1) The Packers should be throwing all game to keep up with the Rams in a high scoring affair. 2) Nobody on the Rams can cover him and 3) He looks to be as explosive as I have ever seen him from a scouting perspective. This is a 10 reception game for Adams, with 100-yards being his floor. Do the math, and see, you are already at 23 points on DK.

WR Larry Fitzgerald (4400) – Speaking of guys who are starting to look better, Larry is looking healthier and with a new OC calling plays, it is a perfect time to feature Fitz to stabilize Josh Rosen and the entire Cards offense vs a poor 49ers secondary. If Christian Kirk (4600) outscores Fitz I would not be the least bit surprised but it seems as though the Cards still are not really playing Kirk on many 1st downs. With value pretty thin in the lower prices at the wide receiver position, Fitz putting up a 8-78-TD game is very feasible and very much worth his investment.

WR Courtland Sutton (3800) – Like I said, it’s thin down here. Sutton will have a blowup game soon and Orlando Scandrick can’t just keep holding everybody, can he? And yes, I literally mean hold them. I can already see him drawing multiple penalties in the Chiefs home playoff game, but I digress… Sutton is obviously a real redzone threat, and if he caught two touchdowns this Sunday, I would claim to be a genius. He has not been far off though in a few games, and with the Chiefs letting opposing offenses dictate what WR vs CB matchups they get on every play, we could see this breakout sooner rather than later.

TE O.J. Howard (3900) – For his floor at the TE position, he is simply under-priced each and every week. There really is not much analysis to provide. He has the athleticism to smash any spot but the great thing is, even when he doesn’t, he isn’t hurting you. 50+ yards receiving in every healthy game he has played in 2018.

FLEX Jordy Nelson (4700) – The Raiders still have to throw the ball to somebody and Nelson is the man in Oakland now. At his price, his chances of besting 100-yards receiving in this spot are pretty good. It can’t be Jalen Richard and Jared Cook all game, folks. Nelson will step up and lead this team in receiving pretty easily the rest of the way. The Colts are a middle of the pack pass defense, but the Raiders should be able to take advantage of them coming off a bye week.

DST Steelers (2300) – No defenses stand out this week, but Pittsburgh at home for their price is a bargain when considering they have about a 50-50 shot at double-digit points. Baker Mayfield likes to hold onto the football, which is always a plus for the defense in fantasy football. 22 sacks already by this defense in six games this year, good value here.

See Page 2 for Fanduel.

About John Lanfranca