Friday - May 14, 2021

Home / Wagering / HITTING PAYDIRT: Super Bowl Betting Edition

HITTING PAYDIRT: Super Bowl Betting Edition

*Based on current odds at Draftkings and Fanduel. Odds subject to change during the week. I have used $100 as a round figure to show the payouts of each bet.

Individual Picks

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+200) – This number has jumped around all week for Edwards-Helaire to score. It was as high as +230 and as low as +150. The Chiefs are expecting Le’Veon Bell to play and Darrel Williams has been used as the main back, but take the value with CEH here. The Chiefs should not be able to run much on TB, but CEH can be used in the passing game. $100 pays $200.

Rob Gronkowski (+230) – Gronk has not been too effective in the playoffs so far, but on the big stage, Brady will definitely target one of his favorite targets of all time. Gronk has not piled up the box score, but he has received a few end-zone targets during the playoffs. He also had his best game of the season. I also like Gronk OVER 31.5 receiving yards. $100 pays $230.

Ronald Jones (+240) Leonard Fournette has been the lead dog in the TB backfield ever since Jones could not play in the wildcard round. However, I will take Jones at nearly double the odds to score as Lenny (+125). Jones had a big game the last time these two played in Week 12. $100 pays $240.

It is difficult to give more pre-game picks as Travis Kelce (-170) and Tyreek Hill (-160) have their odds inflated. You will need to make these bets live on Fanduel when they get closer to even money. There is some uncertainty with the deeper KC WR’s due to injury and COVID protocols. As always, I like to target the TD scorers that offer value. A lot of the value is taken out of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Leonard Fournette as they are all around even money.

Parlays

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Ronald Jones, Travis Kelce (18/1) – 3 player parlay. $100 pays $1802

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Ronald Jones, Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans (41/1) – 4 player parlay. $100 pays $4,164

Mecole Hardman, Kansas City D/ST, Ronald Jones, Travis Kelce (171/1) – 4 player parlay. $100 pays $17,114

Jaydon Mickens & Tampa Bay D/ST (194/1) – These two are correlated as if Mickens can take one to the house on Special Teams, it would count for both him and the TB D/ST. Take advantage of this option to get tremendous odds. Mickens is +2400 alone, but it is unlikely he scores on offense. He has the speed to make a play and while it is a long-shot, odds at this price are too good not to take a chance. $100 pays $19,418

Props

(FD = Fanduel) (DK = Draftkings)

Will a FG or XP hit the upright (not the crossbar)? (FD) Yes +450

Draftkings has their “Doink Special” of +375 for this to happen, but they include the crossbar. I don’t expect many long FG’s in this game, so I would prefer the higher odds and just include the uprights. Harrison Butker has had his struggles this season and hit the upright against the Browns a few weeks ago. $100 pays $450

Will a player be ejected from the game? (FD) No (-550)

Listen, I can’t advocate making a -550 play, but this is just too low. From some quick research, it appears only one player has been ejected from the Super Bowl in its history. So out of 54 games, to have just one ejection, this number should be much higher. $550 pays $100

Will Kansas City Chiefs Use All 6 Timeouts in Regulation? (FD) No (-300)

Again, you are laying a lot of juice, but these props had to be pointed out. Most books have will either team use all 6 timeouts at -270 odds so you are paying just a bit more to isolate the Chiefs in case Tampa does use them all. At first glance, you may like the plus money on this bet, but it is harder than you think. I went with the Chiefs here in case they are leading and won’t need to use timeouts in the 2nd half to save time. $300 pays $100

Chiefs Winning Margin (FD): 11-20 points (+480)

That’s it for the props for now! Keep an eye on @nicky_stats on twitter for any other live picks. Good luck on Sunday…

About Nick Pagliuca

Nick has been competitively playing fantasy sports for over 15 years and has been very active in sports betting analysis. Nick participates mainly in fantasy football and offers gambling advice on all major sports.