Saturday - Jan 16, 2021

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HITTING PAYDIRT: Week 7

Welcome back to Hitting Paydirt for Week 7, a weekly article that looks at the touchdown scorers this week. When looking for touchdown scorers, value is important. Some sites offer in-game betting on touchdown scorers so if you can hold off on taking a star player like Derrick Henry at -250 to score, wait until late in the first quarter or second quarter to place a bet at a better number if he is still scoreless.

I am not suggesting to play all of these touchdown scorers below, but if there is value, they will be listed. You should not bet the same amount per player and depending on your book, you may also be able to parlay some of these. I’ll use the lines from DraftKings and Fanduel. Be sure to shop your books for the best lines as they can be drastically different from site to site. The best price from each site is listed next to each player as of Saturday at noon.

Week 7 Picks

It has been a successful season so far and while we have hit some small winners on the same game parlays, the big score is still missing. However, we are close and could have had a big day if Michael Boone was able to hit pay dirt, but was stuffed at the goal line! Let’s dive into Week 7 with a different format:

Top Plays:

Davante Adams (GB) -125 – Packers are banged up on offense, look for Rodgers to key in on top WR.
Kenny Golladay (DET) +125 – Detroit’s top red zone threat in shootout game.
Josh Allen (BUF) +120 – Great matchup v. Jets.
Calvin Ridley (ATL) -115 – Atlanta’s top touchdown receiving threat.

Value Plays:

Teddy Bridgewater (CAR) +480 – returns to face former team.
New Orleans Saints D/ST (NO) +500 – facing QB they are familiar with – taking a shot here.
Curtis Samuel (CAR) +430 – hunch play here as he is getting work in backfield and due to score.
Randall Cobb (HOU) +210 – not great value here compared to others, but vs. former team in shootout.
Buffalo Bills D/ST (BUF) +440 – Facing the Jets…enough said.

Same Game Parlays:

Detroit Lions @ Atlanta Falcons
Todd Gurley, Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones, Russell Gage, Kenny Golladay, T.J. Hockenson and Danny Amendola.

Aiming for the value in this game. Mix and match three players for realistic parlays. You can take some shots at four or five game parlays if you are looking to hit big.

Golladay, Gage, Amendola, Ridley pays 292/1

Green Bay Packers @ Houston Texans
Davante Adams, look at Jace Sternberger or Marcedes Lewis if Robert Tonyan is out
Deshaun Watson, Randall Cobb, Darren Fells

I only feel confident with Adams to score for GB and the odds on Jamaal Williams (-240) are way too high. Some great value plays for Houston with Jordan Akins set to miss another game and Cobb facing his former team.

Adams, Watson, Fells pays 21/1

Follow nicky_stats on twitter for any live plays or primetime picks. Seahawks/Cardinals is a prop-friendly game. Good luck this weekend …

About Nick Pagliuca

Nick has been competitively playing fantasy sports for over 15 years and has been very active in sports betting analysis. Nick participates mainly in fantasy football and offers gambling advice on all major sports.