Sunday - Jan 17, 2021

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HITTING PAYDIRT: Week 9

Welcome back to Hitting Paydirt, a weekly article that looks at the touchdown scorers this week. When looking for touchdown scorers, value is important. Some sites offer in-game betting on touchdown scorers so if you can hold off on taking a star player like Derrick Henry at -250 to score, wait until late in the first quarter or second quarter to place a bet at a better number if he is still scoreless.

I am not suggesting to play all of these touchdown scorers below, but if there is value, they will be listed. You should not bet the same amount per player and depending on your book, you may also be able to parlay some of these. I’ll use the lines from DraftKings and Fanduel. Be sure to shop your books for the best lines as they can be drastically different from site to site. The best price from each site is listed next to each player as of Saturday at noon.

This week I will focus on a few games and add in some extra player props.

Week 9 Picks:

Broncos @ Falcons

Julio Jones: 100 yards & TD (+280) FanDuel
Julio Jones Over 89.5 receiving yards (-110)
Julio Jones Over 6.5 receptions (-102)

The yardage seems lower than expected with Ridley out. We saw what Julio did when Ridley left the game last week. I would still fire on these two plays with Atlanta at home.

Seahawks @ Bills

D.K. Metcalf (-110)
DeeJay Dallas (-110)
Tyler Lockett (-105)

Good chance that 2-of-3 hit here for the Seahawks.

Stefon Diggs (+115)
Josh Allen (+140)
Devin Singletary (+195)

This is the highest total on the board so I like to mix and match parlays from this game. I am rolling the dice on Singletary over Moss since the odds are better. Both backs had 14 carries last week, but obviously Moss hit pay-dirt twice.

Josh Allen Over 34.5 rushing yards (-110)

Seattle gives up a lot of yardage on the ground to opposing QB’s and I think Josh Allen gets back on track this week.

Panthers @ Chiefs

Christian McCaffrey +100

You will never see him at this number again. I know they expect Mike Davis and CMC to rotate series, but I still like the chances for him to reach the end zone in his first game back against the Chiefs at even money. He is typically around the -200 range. Mike Davis is listed at +270 so if you want to take both of them and have some insurance, feel free. Here a few parlays you can use this game as well:

McCaffrey, Hill, Kelce pays +797

McCaffrey, Hill, Hardman pays +1218

McCaffrey, Kelce, Hardman pays +1411

Dolphins @ Cardinals

Chase Edmonds (-130) and DeAndre Hopkins (-115) TD parlay: Pays +264

Kyler Murray (+110) Tua Tagovailoa (+370) TD parlay: Pays +889

Chase Edmonds Over 93.5 (-113) combined rushing and receiving yards

Kyler Murray Over 43.5 (-115) Rushing Yards

The Cardinals only have Edmonds to run the ball so Kyler may attempt to run even more this game. I will roll the dice on a QB TD parlay at nearly 9/1 odds.

Steelers @ Cowboys

Diontae Johnson +170
Eric Ebron +185
PIT D/ST +340

I like the value of these three Steelers compared to the rest of their top threats. If one hits, you will nearly break even, but if two can cash you will be looking at a nice pay day.

Follow nicky_stats on twitter for the Sunday night football plays or any live picks. Good luck this weekend …

About Nick Pagliuca

Nick has been competitively playing fantasy sports for over 15 years and has been very active in sports betting analysis. Nick participates mainly in fantasy football and offers gambling advice on all major sports.