Monday - Apr 22, 2019

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In Non-PPR, is it a WR’s Game Yet? Part 2

In the Week 6 edition of Digging Deeper titled “

In Non-PPR, is it a WR’s Game Yet?”, we took a look at how RBs compared to WRs in regards to individual fantasy points, and how many RBs there were compared to WRs in the Top 100 RBs and WRs through Week 5 in non-PPR leagues. Now that we’re another five weeks into the season from that point, as promised, we’re going to return to the analysis to see where we are at this point. As always, we’re using standard 10 yards per point and six points per TD scoring. Further, since some of these guys have thrown for a few points as well, we’ll use 25 passing yards per point and four points for a passing TD.

Again, the value in this analysis should go a long way in helping understand a few things when deciding whether to start a RB or a WR in a certain tier who, on the surface, have seemingly equal potential for a flex spot. It’s also just nice to look at a comparative snapshot of fantasy scoring between RBs and WRs at this point in the season.

Let’s take a look at the Top 10 RBs and WRs so far this season:

In what would be a surprise to some if asked at the beginning of this season, RBs take all of the Top 10 spots through 10 weeks of the season, and in a dominating fashion. Compare this to where we were after Week 5 where there were two WRs in the Top 10, albeit in positions eight and nine (Greg Jennings and Larry Fitzgerald respectively). Without needing to analyze reception numbers, it’s pretty safe to say RBs dominate the Top 10 in PPR leagues again too, as they did through Week 5. This should clearly tell you to always start your stud RBs over stud WRs in a flex spot, almost always regardless of the matchup. Interestingly, Chris Johnson is in a pure timeshare and Brandon Jacobs and Ronnie Brown are in semi-timeshares. Let’s take a look at the Top 11-20:

Once again, the list contains more RBs than WRs, but not by much at six to four. If you’re keeping track at home, RBs own 16 of the Top 20 spots so far. Reggie Bush, despite missing the past few games, is still in the Top 20. Here we see a couple more RBs in semi-timeshares that have scored plenty more points than WR1s. However, what this group should tell you is that you should consider starting tier-one WRs over tier-one-to-tier-two RBs in the right matchup. Now let’s take a look at the Top 21-30:

RBs and WRs are even in this group at five each, still leaving RBs with a relatively large 21 to nine lead in the Top 30. In fact, this was the exact count through five weeks. Interestingly, three of the RBs in this group dominate their team’s carries when healthy. What this tells us is that these tier-two-to-tier-three RBs lack the ceiling that tier-two WRs have. As I mentioned in the last article, whether or not you are the underdog in your weekly matchup should tell you whether to go with a WR or a RB in this group. Do you need high-risk/reward upside of a Santana Moss or Brandon Marshall for a given week, or do you just need the consistency of a Marshawn Lynch or Jamal Lewis? On to the next 31-40:

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