The trade that shipped Brett Favre to the New York Jets mercifully closed the book on one of the most intriguing, yet bizarre soap operas in National Football League history – “The Favre Un-Retirement Saga” or whatever you want to call it – and etched in stone the status of quarterback Aaron Rodgers as the new starter for the Green Bay Packers. The fascination that many fantasy owners have with Rodgers as a potential sleeper arguably may border on intriguing, yet bizarre. Why is there such fanfare about a fourth-year pro who has never started a regular-season NFL game and now faces the unenviable task of replacing a living legend?
Who Is This Guy?
Rodgers played his college football at the
Regarded as a fierce competitor and a hard worker, the 6-foot-2, 223-pound Rodgers has a quick release, outstanding accuracy and a great touch – although a majority of his 2008 preseason passes have looked like fastballs. While Rodgers possesses adequate arm strength to put some air under the ball, he specializes in short and medium patterns. The 24-year-old Rodgers is usually fearless in the pocket – his performance in an August 16 preseason game against the
How much regular-season action has Rodgers logged? His NFL résumé is not a long one. As you surely know, Rodgers has spent his low-mileage pro career playing behind a future Hall of Fame quarterback who holds the current league record for consecutive starts.
AARON RODGERS NFL REGULAR SEASON STATISICS |
||||||||
Year |
Games |
Starts |
Comp |
Att |
Comp % |
Yards |
TD |
INT |
2005 |
3 |
0 |
9 |
16 |
56.3 |
65 |
0 |
1 |
2006 |
2 |
0 |
6 |
15 |
40.0 |
46 |
0 |
0 |
2007 |
2 |
0 |
20 |
28 |
71.4 |
218 |
1 |
0 |
CAREER |
7 |
0 |
35 |
59 |
59.3 |
329 |
1 |
1 |
Why All The Rodgers Hoopla?
Is Rodgers another Tony Romo? No, this is not an attempt to compare Rodgers to the
1.
Rodgers is obviously talented (Romo does have a stronger arm and has been more durable).
2.
Rodgers is well-acquainted with his team’s offensive scheme.
3.
Rodgers is taking over as the starter after learning behind a veteran quarterback.
4.
Rodgers is inheriting a strong supporting cast.
After Romo had spent a little more than two seasons holding a clipboard for the Cowboys, he replaced struggling veteran quarterback Drew Bledsoe (retired) as the club’s starter in Week 7 of the 2006 season and became the permanent No. 1 guy under center. Here is a game-by-game look at Romo’s 10 starts during the 2006 season:
TONY ROMO – 2006 STARTS |
||||||||
WEEK |
Opp |
Result |
Comp |
Att |
Comp % |
Yards |
TD |
INT |
8 |
@ CAR |
W 35 – 14 |
24 |
36 |
66.7 |
270 |
1 |
1 |
9 |
@ WAS |
L 19 – 22 |
24 |
36 |
66.7 |
284 |
2 |
0 |
10 |
@ ARI |
W 27 – 10 |
20 |
29 |
59.3 |
308 |
2 |
0 |
11 |
IND |
W 21 – 14 |
19 |
23 |
82.6 |
226 |
0 |
1 |
12 |
TAM |
W 38 – 10 |
22 |
29 |
75.9 |
306 |
5 |
0 |
13 |
@NYG |
W 23 – 20 |
20 |
34 |
58.8 |
257 |
0 |
2 |
14 |
NOR |
L 17 – 42 |
16 |
33 |
48.5 |
249 |
1 |
2 |
15 |
@ ATL |
W 38 – 28 |
22 |
29 |
75.9 |
278 |
2 |
1 |
16 |
PHI |
L 7 – 23 |
14 |
29 |
48.3 |
142 |
1 |
2 |
17 |
DET |
L 31 – 39 |
23 |
32 |
71.9 |
321 |
2 |
1 |
TOTALS |
204 |
310 |
65.8 |
2,641 |
16 |
10 |
||
AVERAGES |
20 |
31 |
64.5 |
264 |
1.6 |
1.0 |
Romo’s performances were solid overall with some great games and a few poor games mixed in, which supports the old adage that talent and smarts can’t always compensate for inexperience. If you remove the unusually high numbers from his outstanding Thanksgiving Day performance against
Rodgers’ Fantasy Forecast
Rodgers has inherited the same supporting cast that helped Favre post some outstanding numbers last season. Head coach Mike McCarthy and offensive coordinator Joe Philbin are using the same multi-formation West Coast attack, but they supposedly have tweaked the scheme to emphasize Rodgers’ strengths. Wide receiver Greg Jennings has developed into an outstanding deep threat, and veteran wide receiver Donald Driver is still a capable presence. Rodgers also has displayed some chemistry with backup wide receivers James Jones and Ruvell Martin during the preseason. Favre threw to starting tight end Donald Lee regularly, especially near the goal line; however, it’s unclear how Rodgers will use Lee. Running back Ryan Grant will serve as the club’s workhorse, and backup running back Brandon Jackson is expected to receive a few touches each game. Pro Bowl tackle Chad Clifton and tackle Mark Tauscher lead an offensive line that is considered above-average. This unit is rock-solid at pass-blocking and did show some improvement in the run-blocking department during the second half of 2007. Admittedly, there is some skepticism about the interior of the
Rodgers possesses most of the necessary physical and mental attributes to succeed in the NFL. However, despite his obvious talent, there are two glaring concerns about him: durability and inexperience. Rodgers, as mentioned, has missed time due to injuries and absorbs extra punishment on the field (holds the ball too long and not afraid to scramble). If he takes extra hits week to week, it’s hard to guarantee that Rodgers will start all 16 regular season games. The last time Rodgers started a meaningful game (no, NFL preseason contests don’t count) was December 30, 2004; his Golden Bears lost 45-31 to Texas Tech in the Holiday Bowl. On the other hand, Rodgers played well in the aforementioned
Breaking down
In all re-draft league formats, Rodgers is obviously not a No. 1 fantasy quarterback this season and rates as a very risky backup. We used Romo as an example of a quarterback that assumed a starting job with circumstances that are similar to what Rodgers is facing, but is it fair to predict how Rodgers’ first-year starter numbers will measure up to Romo’s first-season starter statistics? If you project the numbers from Romo’s 10 starts in 2006 over a full 16-game schedule, you come up with 4,225 passing yards, 25 touchdown passes and 16 interceptions. Should you expect more than 4,000 yards passing from Rodgers? The answer is no. Why? The answer is admittedly open to some debate: Rodgers is arguably at least a couple of notches below Romo talent-wise. Put simply: When Romo took over as the starter for the Cowboys, he was a better player than Rodgers is right now. Assuming Rodgers plays a full 16-game schedule – the bet here is that he will miss at least two games due to injury – you should expect statistics in the neighborhood of 3,300 yards passing, 23 touchdown passes and 20 interceptions. Like Romo, Rodgers will enjoy some good games and suffer through some bad outings, struggling with week-to-week consistency. Let somebody else take the gamble with Rodgers as a backup. Suppose you drafted Rodgers as your No. 2 quarterback and you lost your starter for a long period or for the entire season. Would you feel comfortable rolling with Rodgers as your starter long-term based on what you know about him?