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Ladies and Gents, Welcome to FlopVille!

Buckle your seat belts my fellow fantasy freaks! (

pardon the alliteration

) While early mock drafts are starting to be assembled, lets take a few minutes and examine some likely Flop candidates heading into the 2007 campaign. You know, the guys who make you pull your hair out every week questioning why you even drafted this bumb. The guy who you can’t believe fell to you in the draft, and then you are reminded why every Sunday….Well, enough of the banter, here are the newest inhabitants of Cellar Dweller Lane, FlopVille USA:

Running Backs

:

#1 – Clinton Portis:

  C-Port headlines the list of running back flops in 07′. The perennial 1st round pick in all fantasy drafts since his stellar 02′ rookie campaign is anything but a lock this year. After missing 8 games in 2006 due to an injured shoulder and a broken hand, Portis is now dealing with a knee injury to boot! The real question here is not when to draft Portis, it’s what part of his body is

not in pain right now? Add to that a very capable backup in Ladell Betts who’s fresh off a new contract extension and you now have a serious case of Flop-Itis!

*Where he

will

be taken:

End of 1st / Early 2nd round

*Where he

should be taken: Late 3rd round                                     

 

#2 – Maurice Jones-Drew

:  This lil’ firecracker put up HUGE numbers in his rookie year…Amassing nearly 1,400 yds in total offense and 15 td’s!  A huge year for any back and gold for those lucky owners who scooped him up in free agency. But, yes there’s always a but…it’s a new year! And just like every fantasy owner out there, all NFL teams are very aware of the burner in his sophomore sequel. With a now healthy Greg Jones, and the ever-present Fragile Freddy, MJD finds himself splittin’ the pigskin 3 ways.  Jones should garner the short-yardage and goal-line carries while Taylor/Drew split the rest.  Will he have his moments? Yes.  Will he come close to 15 scores? No.

*Where he

will

be taken:

End of 2nd round

*Where he

should be taken: Late 4th, early 5th round. 

 

#3 – Warrick Dunn:  

Dunn is one of the nicer guys in football, which means he’s probably the nicest flop on this list. In any event,

Dunn may be

Done. With over 2,200 carries, 10 years of service and turning 32 before seasons’ end, Warrick is a real strong Flop candidate in 2007. With the 2nd year burner Jerious Norwood waiting in the wings, we may see a much more diminished role for Dunn. His backup Norwood averaged a tremendous 6.4 yards per carry, albeit a small sample, impressive nonetheless. Dunn’s td’s were always low, but he was a decent yardage back and serviceable #2 back.  If his yardage goes down, he’s nothing more then a #3 rb and/or bye filler. 

*Where he

will

be taken:

End of 5th, early 6th round

*Where he

should be taken: 8th or 9th round

Wide Recievers

:

#1 – Lee Evans:  Yes, a bit of a surprise here I know. The 4th year speedster out of Wisconsin had his breakout year in 2006 totaling just under 1,300 yards receiving and 8 scores. Impressive at 1st glance, but when you dissect those #’s, they’re a bit skewed to say the least.  Evans in 2 weeks last year combined for 410 yards and 3 scores! Thats nearly 1/3 of his 2006 production in just 2 games…He only had 3 games where he surpassed the 100 yd receiving mark.  He also caught 5 balls or less in 10 of the 16 games.  When you add in the fact that there are zero other receiving threats on the squad, a mediocre at best Qb and a rookie running to boot, Evans is extremely Flopalicious!

*Where he

will

be taken:

Early to mid 4th

*Where he

should be taken: Late 6th rd, early 7th

#2 – Jerricho Cotchery

Another 4th year wideout who found his most success to date in year 3.  Totaling nearly 1,000 yds receiving along with 6 scores, Cotchery was a very useful #3 WR, even a borderline #2 option.  However, I would proceed with caution before blurting out this name come draft day.  Cotchery is sort of a cheap mans’ Keyshawn Johnson.  A solid reception guy who can catch the pass over the middle and move the chains.  But in the fantasy football world, we don’t care about moving any chains! We want touchdowns, and lots of them.  The Cotch-man will have his moments in the sun, but they’ll be few and far between in 2007.  I wouldn’t consider Cotchery anything more then a #4 or 5 fantasy WR who you should only throw in on a bye week.  If you’re starting Cotch, then your WR core just isn’t that good.    

*Where he

will

be taken:

Late 6th rd, early 7th

*Where he

should be taken: 9th round, early 10th

#3 – Mike Furrey:  Too easy. This converted WR came out of nowhere in 2006 to have a marvelous year.  Those savvy fantasy GM’s who scooped him up were flat out giddy watching Furrey catch 98 balls for just under 1,100 yards.  Furrey even went out with a bang topping the 100-yd mark in each of his last 2 games along with 2 scores to really ice the cake in 06′.  However, once Detroit selected Calvin Johnson in the 2007 NFL draft, the Furrey fad quickly vanished.  Furrey owners in keeper leagues were soon scanning their rosters for another option in 2007.  The pick of Johnson crushes Furrey’s value.  A potential #2 WR option is now a #3 or #4 WR at best.  With Roy Williams and Mr. Johnson running the show, Furrey should be nothing more then a late round flier.

*Where he

will

be taken:

Late 7th rd, early 8th

*Where he

should be taken: 10th or 11th round

Quarterbacks

:

#1 – Jake Delhomme:  Jake the Snake tops the list of potential QB flops in 2007. Jake had his worst year in 2006 since he first took the helm in 2003. While his td:pick ratio wasn’t that bad, Delhomme threw just 17 scores and failed to hit 3,000 yds passing for the first time.  But what makes Jakes an even scarier proposition on Draft Day is the signing of new backup David Carr.  The former #1 overall pick will be there looking over his shoulder ready to take the ball.  With a capable backup in Carr, I can’t imagine the leash on Delhomme would be that long.  Draft Jake as your #2 QB and you’ll sleep a lot easier.

*Where he

will

be taken:

Late 8th rd, early 9th

*Where he

should be taken: 12th or 13th round

#2 – Ben Roethlisberger:  The Steel City will not be happy with this selection but Big Ben was sighted along insterstate Flop I-87.  The Golden Boy of Steeler Nation had his worst year as a pro in 2006. Throwing just 18 td’s and a league leading 23 picks! It was an ugly, ugly year for Ben. He did pass for 3,500 yards which made his fantasy #’s somewhat respectable.  But this is a name you want to steer firmly away from on Draft Day. Fantasy is all about the td’s and Roethlisberger has yet to throw 20+ td’s in a season.  He does have great intangibles on the field but intangibles does not win you a Fantasy Championship.  Another QB you should draft 

only

as your backup.

*Where he

will

be taken:

Late 9th, early 10th

*Where he

should be taken: 13th round

#3 – Michael Vick:  Perhaps the most overrated fantasy player of all time, and last to pack his bags to Cellar Dweller Lane, we find Michael Vick. Hard placing a guy here who’s coming off his best year as a pro in 2006, but there is just too much chaos circulating around the troubled veteran. Vick has been jumping in and out of trouble since his rookie campaign in 2001. However, his latest incident which we’ve all read and heard about may have very serious ramifications. Playing football may be the least of Vicks’ concerns if he is indicted in this dog fighting scandal.  Vick probably makes this list even without the legal concerns.  This hanging over his head stamps Vick as a Flop Lock.  Unless you’re getting tremendous value late in your draft, stay away, stay far away. 

*Where he

will

be taken:

Late 6th, early 7th

*Where he

should be taken: 9th or 10th round

*Based on 12-man league

 

 

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