Like a true addict, I search the web looking for tips on sleepers and breakout players. The tips help and definitely will provide insight on depth at the position, but what it really comes down to is opportunity. Opportunity will lead to fantasy success. I wanted to look at some of the sleepers/breakouts being projected out there and break down the position to its simplest opportunity per position on any given team and the individuals own personal production. Then take a player’s potential and look at their ADP to determine overvalue, value and undervalue. Here is an example of all 3 types of value on 3 different WRs I see being mentioned out there:
1. Vincent Jackson-SD: Last Year’s Stats: 27rcpts 453yrds 6tds. Ranked 2nd on team WR targets and receptions.
The touchdowns stand out at you. That’s 1 touchdown every 4.5 receptions on average, that’s very impressive, but unrealistic to think that pace would continue. Overall he ranked 74th in targets last year and his rcpt vs trgt ratio was 48%, that was improved from the previous year. 12% of the teams pass attempts went to Jackson. Only 9 touchdowns went to the entire WR group and he had 6 of them.
My Take- Even with a huge increase of say 8% of the pass attempts going to him and giving him 20% of the teams pass attempts. That amount of targets would have him ranked around 43rd. That would equal about 90 targets and not one receiver on the team had that many last year. I wouldn’t expect his rcpt vs trgt ratio to improve that drastically because now he’ll be WR1 and lining up across from the other teams #1 corner every week. With his rcpt vs trgt ratio his stats would come out to around 40-45rcpt 700-750yrds 6-7tds and the touchdowns coming around every 7 receptions on average. That would put him somewhere around the mid 30’s to low 40’s. In mock drafts so far his ADP is 8.02 in ten team leagues or the 28th WR taken. That’s a reach, if he falls he might be worth it, but I wouldn’t take him before or around his ADP. He’ll be a #3WR with some good and some bad games, making him
2. Mark Clayton-Bal: Last Year’s Stats: 67rcpts 939yrds 5tds. Ranked 2nd on team WR targets and receptions.
For a team’s WR2 Clayton ranked 26th overall in targets last year. He only had 4 less targets than WR1-D. Mason. He had a 59% rcpt vs trgt ratio and he greatly improved there from the previous season. 21% of the teams passess went to Clayton. He had a touchdown every 11.5 receptions on average. As far as a teams WR2 he ranked 7th among all teams WR2’s. Finished the last 5 weeks of last year’s season strong.
My Take- McNair has a year under his belt and the running game should be improved from last year. He will overtake Mason in targets this year. The only problem is that he was on that threshold last year, so the ceiling is only so high. He should move up the rankings for targets to around 20 or so. His rcpt vs trgt ratio may decrease a little but with the increase in targets his stats would come out to around 80-85rcpts 1050-1150yrds 7-8tds. That would rank him 13-18. In mock drafts his ADP is 8.08 or the 30th WR taken. He is worth that spot and I wouldn’t be afraid to pull the gun on him a round early if I didn’t think he would make it back to me. Solid #2 WR that will give you some games like a low end #1 WR, making him a
3. D.J. Hackett-Sea: Last Year’s Stats: 45rcpts 610yrds 5tds. Ranked 3rd on team WR targets and receptions.
Not eye popping stats, while he ranked 66th overall in targets, he had a 66% rcpt vs trgt ratio. The year before he had a 68% rcpt vs trgt ratio, so it is no fluke. He started the last five games of the season and played very strong. He had a touchdown every 9 receptions on average. The thing to note is that 4 of his 5 touchdowns came in the games he started at a rate of a touchdown every 7 receptions on average. He will slide into the WR2 this year and has already shown that he can have success. Now his opportunities will double because of it.
My Take- Last year the team WR2 had about 25% of the teams pass attempts. His rcpt vs trgt ratio may decrese a little but with the increase in targets his stats would come out to around 75-80rcpts 1000-1100yrds 7-8tds. A drastic increase that would rank him around 14-19. In most mock drafts so far his ADP is 10.05 in ten team leagues or the 36th WR taken. He’ll outperform that ranking and I would not be afraid to take him a round or two before his ranking. Solid #2 WR that could give you a game or two like a low end #1 making him