Don’t Believe the HYPE
VICK, VICK, VICK. That’s all you hear about anymore when talking about fantasy football. He is on the cover of every fantasy football magazine. He’s on the cover of Madden. He is taken in the 1st or 2nd round of any mock draft you enter. Why? He’s unproven. Michael Vick completed 54% of his passes last year, for less than 3000 yards and only 16 touchdowns. So why is he being raved everywhere amongst fantasy football owners and guru’s? Flash!! No doubt about it, Vick is the most athletic QB in the NFL right now. He definitely has the potential to put himself amongst the elite. This is fantasy football, not the NFL draft. You never draft a player in the early rounds based on potential, you draft players who have done it before.
A player that you select in the first three rounds should sit on your bench maybe one game a season (barring injury). Vick this season will have to ride your pine for at least three games. He plays Tampa Bay twice and Baltimore once. Last season in three games vs. those teams he put up a combined: 298 yards on 28 for 61 passes and one touchdown, while rushing for 11 yards on 13 attempts. Yes, I know he was hurt in the middle of the first Tampa Bay game. However, that brings me to my next point, injuries. Vick managed to escape last season, missing only 1 game. However he played much of the season hurt. Something he’ll have to get use to playing the way he does. He rushed last season 113 times and got sacked another 35 times. That is too many hits for a quarterback. He is bound to miss at least 1-2 games (at a minimum). That means he’s on your bench now at least 4-5 games of the season. Is that something you want from a guy you took in the first 3 rounds of your draft? Is that something you want from a guy you drafted before other proven quarterbacks?
So when do you draft Vick? I am not able to project a round for him to be taken in. Every draft is different as well as scoring systems. However, I know that there are a few quarterbacks I’d take before Vick:
Donovan McNabb – The best all-around quarterback in football.
Daunte Culpepper – Threw for 900 more yards, 2 more touchdown passes, and ran for 2 more.
Peyton Manning – He hasn’t missed a game in his career. He has never thrown for fewer than 26 touchdowns. Has a 3 year average of over 4,000 passing yards.
Rich Gannon – Has great Wide Receiver’s. Also helps that he throws a ton in every game.
Jeff Garcia – In a new offense, based around the pass. Has the 2nd best WR in the game to throw at.
This season Michael Vick said that he was going to try and be a much more patient passer, staying in the pocket longer. If that happens then he will not be the fantasy threat that everyone is hoping for. This season look for his rushing numbers to slide and his passing numbers to rise a little. During Vicks last three football seasons, he has completed 54%, 44%, and 54% of his passes. Out of 30 quarterbacks, last season who attempted 224 or more passes, Vick finished 24th in completion percentage. Those are not the kind of numbers you want from one of your top picks. Michael Vick will have a few big games this season, but consistency is what you want from you quarterback. Its better to have a guy put up 20 points a week, then a guy who puts up 30 one week and 10 the next. Don’t make the mistake of drafting Vick ahead of proven quarterbacks.