With the preseason all wrapped up, the gambling Sharks among us can now focus on lines and odds that finally present some value! There is a NEW SECTION OF THE WEBSITE that is solely dedicated to betting. You will find a comprehensive model that not only aims to highlight inefficiencies in Spreads and Over/Under lines but will also provide a bookmaker that is offering the bet with the most lucrative odds.
I will post my favorite picks from the model and sprinkle in some Player Prop bets to keep it spicy. If the mood strikes, you can expect some parlays to carry through the entire weekend as well.
Overall Record: (0-0-0)
Total Week 1 Stake: 110 Units
10U: Buffalo Bills +2.5 (+100) at New York Jets – The Bills are the top pick for the model, and I am fully on board. Buffalo put up 41 points last year in Week 10 when it traveled to New Jersey to face the Jets. What has changed? A few things … which all favor Buffalo. The Bills have an improved offensive line, a deeper wide receiving core and another year of Josh Allen working with Sean McDermott. While the Jets added Le’Veon Bell, they also brought on a head coach in Adam Gase who has proven that he has no idea how to utilize stud running backs.
10U: Los Angeles Rams -1.5 (-110) at Carolina Panthers – This line is just too low. It doesn’t matter where these two teams play. Cam Newton will need to be in 2105 MVP form for the Panthers to win this game and I will roll the dice that he is not. The Rams have far two many weapons on both sides of the ball and the benefit of a game strategist coach who has had months to plan for this matchup.
10U: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5 (-105) vs. San Francisco 49ers – I am with the crowd on both sides here! Bruce Arians runs a high-scoring offensive scheme and the Buccaneers have all the weapons to run away with games. The 49ers will just not be able to keep pace. I have never been a Jimmy Garoppolo believer because, well, there needs to be more than a few games of success in a Bill Belichick system before one is anointed as a Hall of Fame candidate.
10U: Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars: Under 51.5 (-110) – People claim that it is never fun to root for Unders. Wrong! This game is going to be hot. Close to triple digit hot. The other fun fact? The Jaguars were the only team to hold Patrick Mahomes without a passing touchdown last year when he averaged more than three per game.
5U: Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins: Over 39.5 (-110) – It is quite possible that the Ravens can put up all 40-plus points themselves this Sunday. It is strange to think that the Dolphins are already floundering, and the season has only just begun, but this season is shaping up to be like the 2018 Cardinals and it is not because of Josh Rosen.
10U: Kenyan Drake Rushing Yards Over 31.5 (-115) – You JUST read about how there is no reason to believe in the Dolphins. That being said, they are still going to get yards. Kenyan Drake is always on my dislike list but 31.5 yards is too low to pass up.
10U: Tyler Lockett Receiving Yards Under 82.5 (-120) – Lockett began to emerge as a legitimate wide receiver in the 2017 season. Doug Baldwin is gone, but Seattle is still the most run-heavy team in league. Locket has eclipsed 83 yards receiving just five times in the last two seasons.
10U: Will Fuller Receptions Under 4.5 (-175) – Eight. Fuller has only had more than 4.5 receptions in eight career games. This will be his fourth season in the league.
10U: Jimmy Garoppolo Interceptions Over .5 (-130) – Sign me up. He will need to chuck it in this game.
5U: David Johnson Receptions Over 3.5 (+100) – An elite pass catching running back is a rookie quarterback’s best friend. Arizona will be embracing the new NFL with a pass-heavy attack.