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NFL Conference Championship Week: Scoring Trends of 2009

Welcome to the Conference
Championship edition of the Brew Crew Corner. It’s now down to four teams.
In the NFC will we see Brett Favre do another “Pants on the Ground” dance or
will the Saints go marching into the Super Bowl? On the AFC side it’s the rookies
Mark Sanchez and Shonn Greene – who are holding the glass slipper. Will this
Cinderalla team beat Peyton Manning and the could-have-been perfect Colts?

Jets at Colts

Do the Jets have another
upset special? They will be the biggest underdogs again this weekend as they
face the top-seeded Colts. This will be a tighter game then people expect as
the Jets defense is playing at a high level and that will keep them in this
game. In the end, Peyton Manning’s experience is the X-factor here and the
Colts will punch the first ticket to

Miami.

Prediction:

Colts 21, Jets 14

Vikings at Saints

These two teams match up
well. Both teams combined to score an average of 30 points during the season while
holding their opponent to an average of 20 points. This is going to be a game
of who can outscore who the most. Turnovers will be key in this one as both
sides don’t want to give the other a short field advantage. It’s hard to pick a
winner here but the Brett Favre magic may prevail once again. I see this ending
with a long drive and a field goal with time expiring.

Prediction:

Vikings 31, Saints 30

SCORING TRENDS

This season was a down
year for scoring in the NFL. Touchdowns were down in every category except for
receiving touchdowns. Here are the scoring and touchdown breakdowns for the
past three NFL seasons.

 

 

PPG

Total points

Rush TD

Rec TD

Return TD

D/ST TD

2009

21.46

10991

429

710

28

80

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008

22.03

11279

476

646

29

95

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007

21.69

11104

386

720

42

95

 

One big trend this season
is how bad the kicking game was. Even the clutch kickers struggled this season.
We saw that in the divisional game between the Chargers and the Jets where Nate
Kaeding missed three attemps, the same he missed all season. The kicking
percentage for field goals was down to 81.4. The number of blocked field goals
remained about the same over the past three seasons but what surprised me was
the 15 blocked extra points, which was five times more than last season.

 

 

FGM

FG Att

Pct

Blk FG

XPM

XP Att

Pct

Blk XP

2009

756

930

81.38

21

1165

1185

98.5

15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008

845

1000

84.56

22

1170

1176

99.4

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007

795

960

82.97

19

1165

1178

99

7

 

Over the last three
seasons, we have seen changes in scoring by position. The quarterback, kicker
and defense/special teams have all dropped in average FPTs (fantasy points), while
running back, wide receiver and tight ends had better FPTs from the previous
year. Here are the breakdowns of how each position finished and how they
compared from 2007-2009.

QB Position:

The top overall QB in
2007 was Tom Brady who scored 391 FPTs for the season. In that year, the Top 10
QBs had two 300+ FPTs. The next seven QBs finished between 259-292 FPTs. Jay
Cutler finished 10th with less than 250 FPTs (239). In that season,
15 QBs finished with 200+ FPTs.

The top overall QB in
2008 was Drew Brees who scored 333 FPTs for the season. That year, the Top 10
QBs had three 300+ FPTs. The next six QBs finished between 252-299 FPTs. Tyler
Thigpen, who finished with 236 FPTs, was the only QB to finish with less than
250 FPTs. In that season, 21 QBs finished with 200+ FPTs.

The top overall QB in
2009 was Aaron Rodgers who scored 363 FPTs for the season. This year, the Top
10 QBs had five 300+ FPTs. The next five QBs finished between 295-265 FPTs.
This season, 19 QBs finished with 200+ FPTs.

Three-year Top 10 QB
average: 2007 – 286.9 FPTs, 2008 – 285.2 FPTs, 2009 – 265.6 FPTs.

RB Position:

The top overall RB in
2007 was Brian Westbrook who scored 412 FPTs for the season. In that year, the
Top 10 RBs had two 400+ FPTs. The next two RBs finished between 310-327 FPTs.
The last six RBs finished between 256-296 FPTs. In that season, 21 RBs finished
with 200+ FPTs.

The top overall RB in
2008 was Matt Forte who scored 350 FPTs for the season. That year, no one had 400+
FPTs. The next nine RBs scored between 301-344 FPTs. That season, 23 RBs scored
200+ FPTs.

The top overall RB in
2009 was Chris Johnson who scored 450 FPTs for the season. This year, the Top
10 RBs had just one RB with 400+ FPTs (Johnson). The next four RBs finished
between 311-377 FTPs. The last five RBs finished between 274-293 FPTs. This
season, 24 RBs finished with 200+ FPTs.

 

Three-year Top 10 RB average: 2007 – 311.7 FPTs, 2008 – 256.2 FPTs, 2009 –
326.9 FPTs.

WR Position:

The top overall WR in
2007 was Randy Moss who scored 378 FPTs for the season. In that year, the Top
10 WRs had two 300+ FPTs. The next eight WR finished between 270-299 FPTs. In
that season, 21 WRs scored 200+ FPTs.

The top overall WR was
2008 was Andre Johnson who scored 314 FPTs for the season. That year, the top
WRs had two 300+ FPTs. The next six finished between 251-278 FPTs. The last two
WRs had 242 FPTs. That season, 20 WRs scored 200+ FPTs.

The top overall WR in
2009 was once again Andre Johnson who scored 306 FPTs for the season. This
year, the Top 10 WRs had one WR with 300+ FPTs (Johnson). The next nine WR
finished between 255-281 FPTs. This season, 21 WRs scored 200+ FPTs.

Three-year Top 10 WR
average: 2007 – 296.9 FPTs, 2008 – 266.8 FPTs, 2009 – 274.1 FPTs.

 

TE Position:

The top overall TE in
2007 was Jason Witten who scored 245 FPTs for the season. In that year, the Top
TEs had four 200+ FPTs. The next three TEs finished between 151-187 FPTs. The
last two TEs finished between 130-135 FPTs. In that season, 15 TEs scored 100+
FPTs.

The top overall TE in
2008 was Tony Gonzalez who scored 254 FPTs for the season. That year, the Top
10 TEs had one 200+ FPTs. The next five TEs finished between 162-196 FPTs. The
last four TEs finished between 133-141 FPTs. That season, 18 TEs scored 100+
FPTs.

The top overall TE in
2009 was Dallas Clark who scored 263 FPTs for the season. This year, the Top 10
TEs had six TEs with 200+ FPTs. The next four TEs finished between 163-188
FPTs. This season, 19 TEs scored 100+ FPTs.

Three-year Top 10 TE
average: 2007 – 184.2 FPTs, 2008 – 168.6 FPTs, 2009 – 206.3 FPTs.

K Position:

The top overall PK in
2007 was Mason Crosby who scored 178 FPTs for the season. In that year, the Top
10 Ks had nine 150+ FPTs. The last K finished with 146 FPTs. In that season, 28
Ks scored 100+ FPTs.

The top overall K in 2008
was Stephen Gostkowski who scored 185 FPTs for the season. That year, the top Ks
had 13 150+ FPTs. In that season, 30 Ks scored 100+ FPTs.

The top overall K in 2009
was David Akers who scored 172 FPTs for the season. This year, the Top 10 Ks
had nine with 150+ FPTs. The next-last K finished with 145 FPTs. This season,
26 Ks scored 100+ FPTs.

Three-year Top 10 PK
average: 2007 – 184.2 FPTs, 2008 – 165.5 FPTs, 2009 – 156.6 FPTs.

DEF Position:

The top overall DEF in
2007 was the Chargers who scored 250 FPTs for the season. That year, the top
DEFs had one 250+ FPTs. The next seven DEFs finished between 204-138 FPTs. The
last two DEFs finished between 199-197 FPTs. In that season, 26 DEFs scored
150+ FPTs.

The top overall DEF in
2008 was the Eagles who scored 236 FPTs for the season. That year, the top DEF had
no 250+ FPTs. The next four DEFs finished between 201-235 FPTs. The last five
DEFs finished between 189-199 FPTs. That season, 18 DEFs scored 150+ FPTs.

The top overall DEF in 2009
was the Packers who scored 228 FPTs for the season. This year, the Top 10 DEFs
had no DEF with 250+ FPTs. The top five DEFs finished between 205-228 FPTs. The
last five DEFs finshed between 198-182 FPTs. This season, 24 DEFs scored 150+
FPTs.

Three-year Top 10 DEF
average: 2007 – 214.7 FPTs, 2008 – 208.1 FPTs, 2009 – 203.1 FPTs.

Good luck to those with
teams and fantasy players still in the playoffs.

Cheers!

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