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NFL Prospect Evaluations – April 5



Da’Rick Rogers


, WR, Tennessee Tech, 6-foot-2, 220 pounds



PROS: Freak athlete.  Size, speed, athleticism – he has the skills to be an elite WR and may be the only one of those types in this draft class.


CONS: Parallels can be drawn between him and Terrell Owens, Charles Rogers, Dez Bryant, among so many other diva wide receivers.  As you can see the range spreads from elite to frustratingly successful to total bust.


DRAFT BRIEFING:

He is probably not even on a dozen teams’ draft boards, but all it takes is one to say ‘we can manage him’ and pick him early.  He probably won’t go day one because the talent pool is so deep this year, but early day two?  Absolutely.

2013 OUTLOOK: If there is one difference maker in this rookie lot in year one it is likely him. I am much more willing to roll a late round die on Rogers than I am anyone else…in a redraft league. There is no long term commitment and the risk is low by spending a late round pick on him.

DYNASTY OUTLOOK: Hazy. Very, very hazy. He makes the most sense on already stacked rosters, so a late round 1 pick to a playoff team makes total sense.  They likely already have a quality roster and can afford to throw a dart on a guy that could be the next big thing, or a total flame out in two years.




Ray Graham, RB, Pitt, 5-foot-9, 200 pounds


PROS: Dominant early in college career.  Displayed excellent vision, cut back ability, explosiveness, agility – lateral and through the hole.

CONS: Has not been the same since a knee injury mid-2011 and his uninspiring performance this offseason gives even more reason to believe he is still not 100%, as Pitt coaches said he was throughout 2012.

DRAFT BRIEFING: Based on what he showed on tape prior to the knee injury he will be drafted based on that upside alone, but given what he has shown since it wil be on Day 3 and it could be very late.

2013 OUTLOOK:  Not an option unless significant injuries occur in front of him on the depth chart, in both quantity and quality.

DYNASTY OUTLOOK: I’m a fan of these types.  He can do it on the field, he just hasn’t lately.  It’s anyone’s guess whether he gets his game back or not, but that 10, 20, 50% chance that he does have of getting it back is a better dice roll in our game than the steady, mediocre back taken two rounds in front of him.  





Matt Scott, QB, Arizona, 6-foot-3, 195 pounds



PROS: The NFL is trending towards more athletic quarterbacks, looking to take advantage of the read option and pistol sets.  Unfortunately, there aren’t many of these types available in this draft class, but Scott is one of them. 

CONS: Everything else.  He only has one season of starter’s reps under his belt, there are legit questions as to whether he can handle the pounding of a mobile QB given his thin frame, he had way too many turnovers in his one season starting, and for a short, conservative passing offense his completion % is way too low.  He often rushes himself in working through his progressions opting for reads closer to the line, which should be completed at a high rate, but in so doing his mechanics get sloppy leading to inaccurate throws.

DRAFT BRIEFING: The fans of the team that drafts him will not be happy.  Due to his skill set and where the NFL is right now he will be drafted on Day 2.  He is not going to be thrust into a starting role, but he will be developed with the intention of giving him a shot in the next few years.  This will be at the expense of a starter at another position and understandably will frustrate fans of the team that picks him. Scott has maybe a 10% chance of turning into even an average QB.

2013 OUTLOOK: He’s a developmental QB, his window won’t open until at least 2014 and more likely 2015, if at all.

DYNASTY OUTLOOK: In deeper dynasty’s there is usually room for one of these types on a roster, so unless you’re already sitting on a Ryan Mallett, Brock Osweiler, etc. he is worth a look in the late rounds.  More than likely he will be the type to look for on waivers in December, but don’t rule it out until his landing spot is identified.

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