While checking out fantasy draft rankings on different websites, I have noticed a trend that appears to make sense until you really dissect it. I want to evaluate the draft ranking of Michael Turner in a points-per-reception league.
Turner is being taken in the range of the 10th to 20th draft spot. I have seen names like Pierre Thomas, LeSean McCoy and Rashard Mendenhall ahead of him. Realizing that Turner will only catch 10 balls all season and the others will catch 20-40 more, it just makes sense to pick those guys ahead of Turner, right? Wrong!
Every website has projected Turner to score 14-16 touchdowns and rush for 1,200 to 1,500 yards. Keep in mind that Turner has scored 27 times in his last 27 games. Remarkable. No other running back can make that same boast. He scores more than Ben Roethlisberger in a bar full of drunken co-eds.
Let’s do the math. For this analysis we will use Mendenhall because he is ranked higher than either McCoy or Thomas. We will use an average of three websites’ projection stats, including Fantasy Sharks (which, I might add, are giving Turner more love than most sites … nice job men).The averages for both men are as follows;
Turner: 1,350 rushing yards, 15 TD; 10 receptions, 53 yards
Mendenhall: 1,150 rushing yards, 9.3 TD; 28 receptions, 236 yards, .67 TD
Scoring: 6 points for rushing and receiving touchdown.
Turner’s rushing and receiving yards are almost exactly the same as Mendenhall’s, so they are equal in that respect. Mendenhall will catch about 15-20 more balls than Turner. Let’s use 20 just to give Mendenhall the benefit of the doubt. Twenty times one point per reception equals 20 points. Add four more for the .67 receiving touchdown he might score. That’s a total of 24 points. Turner scores five more total touchdowns than Mendenhall. Five times six equals 30 total points. This is without the possibility of
I rest my case your honor. When it’s your pick in Round 1 of your PPR league and Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Ray Rice and Frank Gore are all gone, give some love and do not be afraid to pull the trigger on Michael Turner.