Opportunity
Knocks
Every year a new crop of runningbacks join the NFL and another group plays musical stadiums, leaving fantasy owners guessing about what to expect. Most recently in the Shark Tank at FantasySharks.com, my friend, compatriot, and glutton for abuse DynastyForce wondered aloud about
Felix Jones’ likely impact on Cowboys’ incumbent
Marion Barber. Now we can’t just take
Felix Jones’ college stats or a veteran’s performance on their last team and figure they’ll do the same in their new roles, but we can look at their situations. Instead of past performances, we’re going to focus on opportunity – how much time we expect to see them on the field – as our predictor of success.
Backfield Touches |
Rookies (p=323) |
New Veterans (p=238) |
On the bench (under 5%) |
58% |
56% |
Sniffing the field (5 – 20%) |
26% |
31% |
Sharing the load (20%-40%) |
11% |
8% |
Taking over (over 40%) |
5% |
5% |
Incumbent with 50%+ of carries the previous year, from 1998 – 2007
Rashard Mendenhall,
Felix Jones, and
Chris Johnson join the NFL in an uphill battle for opportunity. As shown in the table above, rookies and veterans on a new team are faced with overwhelming odds when competing with an established runningback. A few will steal touches regularly, but just 5% each of rookies and acquired veterans will threaten to take over the starting job when there’s a clear starting job to take. Most hardly make an immediate impact, but we’ll focus our attention to the guys who have.
Rookie Impacts
The rookies who immediately take over come in four distinct flavors:
- Hall of Fame candidates like
Eddie George (1996) and
Marshall Faulk (1994)
- Injury fill-ins like
Domenic Rhodes (2001)
- “Step aside, gramps!” like
Antowain Smith over
Thurman Thomas (1997)
- “Can he be any worse?” like
Willie Green over
James Jackson (2002)
If your guy doesn’t fit these categories, he’s probably not going to get much of an opportunity.
The guys who come in to share the backfield also roughly match these categories, but with an emphasis on age. Once we eliminate the incumbents who missed half the season, over 75% of the established top backs were in their 5th or later season when the rookie stepped in, losing about 14% of their touches along the way. The rookies who were worked in include guys like
Lawrence Maroney,
Steven Jackson, and
Frank Gore, who we’ve watched take their place over the worn or the ineffective (yes, you,
Kevan Barlow), phasing the incumbent out.
Veteran Impacts
In the few cases a veteran has come in to take over there are two key features: Injury and underachievement. Their time on the field is much more straight-forward than with rookies, generally being directly proportional to the amount of injury and suckage on the team that nabbed them. More often, acquired vets fill out the bench and, even then, usually cede the top backup roles to the guys who were there before them.
Great Expectations
So far we’ve gotten a sense of the backfield competition in the NFL created by the draft and free agency. To put this to use, we’ll look at current draft trends, see what the average drafter seems to expect, and whether or not the value adds up.
Top rookie draft back
Darren McFadden has been going 19th among runningbacks in redraft leagues at MyFantasyLeague.com. To live up to this pick in your fantasy draft, recent history says he’ll have to see about 60% of the touches out of that shaky but crowded Oakland backfield.
Michael Turner (17th), on the other hand, has high expectations, but is competing against an inexperienced
Jerious Norwood who was still returning kicks last season.
Likewise, for
Rashard Mendenhall (25th) to give you the RB2/3 performance so many seem to expect, he’ll have to take a bit over half of the action at the expense of
Willie Parker. Meanwhile,
Michael Pittman (#73) finds himself in
Denver
in an unremarkable stable, but is on the bottom of the draft heap.
Given these examples and what we’ve seen about runningbacks on new teams, you have to ask how these guys fit in their new situations. Can McFadden be any worse than the others in
Oakland
? Is it time for Willie Parker to step aside, and give half the game to a rookie? Is Marion Barber an underachiever?
The Answer: 42
I’ve given you the questions. To help with the answer, you’ll find a table of 42 upstarts at the end of this article. I’ve included their current competition, current average draft positions, and about how much field time they’ll need to live up to that draft pick. I’ve also thrown in some historical examples to put things in perspective.
When you make a pick in a redraft league, you’re usually making a statement: I expect this guy to perform better than everyone else after him at this position. Think about where they’re being drafted, who they’re competing with, and whether or not they’re going to get the opportunity your draft pick demands.
To join the discussion on any runningback with a pulse, dip into the Shark Tank at FantasySharks.com, send me any feedback in the Article Discussion forum, and if you happen to be Kevan Barlow, I know, it wasn’t all your fault.
Average Draft Position vs. Opportunity
Here’s an example of how to read the table below:
To be the 17th RB overall, Michael Turner must get around 62% of touches out of the backfield.
Team |
Year |
ADP |
RB Draft Rank |
New Runningback |
Touches % |
Incumbent / Competition as of June 15, 2008 |
ARI |
2006 |
|
|
James, Edgerrin |
84% |
Shipp, Marcel |
IND |
1994 |
|
|
Faulk, Marshall (R) |
72% |
Potts, Roosevelt |
HOU |
2003 |
|
|
Davis, Domanick (R) |
65% |
Wells, Jonathan |
ATL |
2008 |
33.45 |
17 |
Turner, Michael |
62% |
Norwood, Jerious |
OAK |
2008 |
37.46 |
19 |
McFadden, Darren |
61% |
Fargas / Bush / Jordan |
TB |
2005 |
|
|
Williams, Cadillac (R) |
61% |
Pittman, Michael |
CLE |
2002 |
|
|
Green, William (R) |
58% |
Jackson, James |
CAR |
2008 |
57.92 |
23 |
Stewart, Jonathan |
56% |
Williams, DeAngelo |
PIT |
2008 |
61.8 |
25 |
Mendenhall, Rashard |
51% |
Parker, Willie |
BUF |
1997 |
|
|
Smith, Antowain (R) |
50% |
Thomas, Thurman |
SEA |
2008 |
62.6 |
27 |
Jones, Julius |
49% |
Morris / Duckett |
CAR |
2001 |
|
|
Huntley, Richard |
47% |
Biakabutuka, Tim |
DET |
2008 |
72.96 |
29 |
Smith, Kevin |
46% |
Bell / Calhoun |
CHI |
2008 |
73.75 |
30 |
Forte, Matt |
41% |
Peterson / Wolfe |
NE |
2006 |
|
|
Maroney, Laurence (R) |
38% |
Dillon, Corey |
DAL |
2008 |
92.88 |
33 |
Jones, Felix |
37% |
Barber, Marion III |
STL |
2004 |
|
|
Jackson, Steven (R) |
35% |
Faulk, Marshall |
TEN |
2008 |
101.61 |
36 |
Johnson, Chris |
33% |
White, LenDale |
SF |
2005 |
|
|
Gore, Frank (R) |
32% |
Barlow, Kevan |
GB |
2005 |
|
|
Gado, Samkon (R) |
32% |
Green, Ahman |
F/A |
2008 |
113.11 |
39 |
Henry, Travis |
29% |
TBD |
BAL |
2008 |
120.47 |
40 |
Rice, Ray |
29% |
McGahee, Willis |
IND |
2007 |
|
|
Keith, Kenton (R) |
28% |
Addai, Joseph |
DEN |
2008 |
137.37 |
44 |
Torain, Ryan |
26% |
Young / Pittman / Hall |
KC |
2008 |
152.59 |
46 |
Charles, Jamaal |
22% |
Johnson, Larry |
F/A |
2008 |
166.09 |
49 |
Alexander, Shaun |
21% |
TBD |
HOU |
2008 |
180.59 |
52 |
Brown, Chris |
20% |
Green, Ahman |
HOU |
2008 |
187.69 |
55 |
Slaton, Steve |
19% |
Green / Brown |
TB |
2008 |
196.58 |
60 |
Dunn, Warrick |
18% |
Graham, Ernest |
F/A |
2008 |
217 |
66 |
Jones, Kevin |
18% |
TBD |
SFO |
2008 |
223.66 |
68 |
Foster, DeShaun |
18% |
Gore, Frank |
DEN |
2008 |
238.95 |
73 |
Pittman, Michael |
17% |
Young / Hall |
SD |
2008 |
240.31 |
76 |
Hester, Jacob |
17% |
Tomlinson, LaDainian |
ARI |
2008 |
245 |
77 |
Hightower, Tim |
14% |
James, Edgerrin |
IND |
2008 |
247.63 |
79 |
Hart, Mike |
12% |
Addai, Joseph |
DAL |
2008 |
257.06 |
80 |
Choice, Tashard |
10% |
Barber, Marion III |
MIA |
2008 |
267.52 |
82 |
Parmele, Jalen |
8% |
Brown, Ronnie |
SEA |
2008 |
269.03 |
84 |
Duckett, T.J. |
7% |
Jones, Julius |
BUF |
2008 |
273.87 |
85 |
Omon, Xavier |
7% |
Lynch, Marshawn |
SD |
2008 |
283.86 |
90 |
Thomas, Marcus |
6% |
Tomlinson, LaDainian |
SEA |
2008 |
301.75 |
97 |
Forsett, Justin |
5% |
Jones, Julius |
TB |
2008 |
311.17 |
99 |
Boyd, Cory |
4% |
Graham, Earnest |