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Part II QB Strength of Schedule

 

 

Hopefully everyone’s week of Dark Knight Fever has not distracted you from your preparation for the 2008 season. Of course it hasn’t and I’m excited to bring you Part II of the strength of schedule discussion where we will look at the SOS a little closer. In this edition of the

Brew Crew Corner, we will concentrate on the first 3 weeks of the season for QB match ups.

 

You are wonder why I am focusing on just the first three weeks and not at the entire season. This is because defenses change, teams make adjustments, players get promoted or demoted and injuries become a factor.

 

Another reason we look at the first three weeks is because you want to jump out to a lead in your division. You want to be sitting pretty at 3-0 while your division foes wonder why they are 1-2 or even 0-3 to start. They will begin to question their draft strategy and some may even begin to hit the panic button.

 

Although a topic for another day, owners who hit the panic button will look to those teams that are 3-0 or 5-1 for the first part of the year trying to fix their team and could offer you some great trade opportunities.

 

This is when the strength of schedule can become an asset to you. Not only can you select players in your draft that can help you score big points right away but you can also have better trade bait to acquire someone’s struggling studs. We’ve seen it before, even last year with a stud like

Steven Jackson that wasn’t putting a top 10 RB numbers through week 6. In fact,

Jackson was the 44th RB in standard scoring leagues. He ended up as the #14 RB at the end of the season.

 

When looking at QB SOS it is import to know that it is not suggestion you draft Alex Smith over a Peyton Manning or that a Stud QB will not score you points. Strength of schedule is a tool you use in addition to your mocks, your rankings and your tiers.

 

Let’s look back at the top QBs SOS for 2007 and how they did after the first 3 weeks.

(QB rank is for the first 3 weeks)

 

 

Keep in mind that just because a team has a favorable match up doesn’t mean they will take advantage of it. For instance,

Matt Leinart faced a favorable match up against

San Francisco but struggled in that game to pass for only 102 yds and 1TD while throwing 2INTs. He came out the next week with another favorable match up and played well with 299 yds 1TD and 1INT against

Seattle. He was replaced by

Kurt Warner in certian situations for game 3. You have to love when your QB lights it up on a favorable match up like

Donavan McNabb did against

Detroit for 381 yds and 4TDs.

 

 

 

As you can see the strength of schedule is a different listing then that of the SOS at a glance. I looked at points scored (PTs) as well as the passing yards per game (PYDs) to show which QBs faced the easiest schedules heading into the season for the first 3 games. As you can see,

Tom Brady’s team has the easiest SOS in the league but his SOS is 5th among the QBs. If

Matt Hasselbeck can get some decent play out of his receivers as well as

Bobby Engram playing, they can put up some serious points.

Jeff Garcia also has a good chance to secure his role as the starter with some good performances.

 

Some of these teams have made adjustments to the defensive side of the ball such as

New Orleans and

Minnesota.

 

Some QB situations will change as well such as

Brett Favre’s situation which is still unsettled. If he stays in

Green bay or is traded to

Tampa, he can come back hot. If he goes to

Minnesota or

Carolina, he will have a harder time. Also there are training camp battles in

Baltimore and

Arizona for the starting QB job that may change the situation for those QBs.

 

 

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