Sunday - Feb 17, 2019

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Post Draft Part 2

This weekend was a very busy one for me. Friday, my father-in-law got tickets for the Patriots vs. Panthers preseason game for my wife and me. They were really good seats on the left side of the end zone. This was the Panthers 1st home preseason game so the stadium was packed. The funniest part of the night were bootleg t-shirt vendors on the street selling anti-Mike Vick shirts. The shirts read, “Hokie to the Pokie”. I didn’t get to see what the picture looked like but for every person’s downfall there is another person looking to exploit it and make money.

 

Notes on the game, if you didn’t watch it. Panthers looked bad. They had a few good series but nothing else. The kicking game was bad with a blocked FG and another missed FG. Steve Smith missed scoring a TD near my seats but I did get to watch Keary Colbert score. The

Carolina running game looked average. For the Patriots, they looked ready for the season. Brady played very well as did the Defense. It was good for Maroney owners to see him play and take some hits. He carried the ball 15 times.

 

The other half of my weekend was dominated by my money league drafts. One is an existing 16 team keeper and the other is a new 14 team keeper. Same set up in both leagues so I used the same cheat sheets as we held the drafts back to back. When I got to the draft, it was more of a party atmosphere then a serious battle of the minds. We had food everywhere, beer galore and music so load we had to shout our picks. I spent so much time preparing for this draft that I felt I was on auto pilot for most of the day.

 

For my 16 team draft, I took a risk and traded out of the 1st and up in the 5th. I gave up my 1st round pick and my 6th and 7th round pick to 2 different owners. The theory I had going into the draft was the player I wanted in the 1st round would fall to me in the second. Based on the team needs of the owners drafting in the spots before me netted me super value. I had 2 second round picks, which I used on MJD & T.O. keep in mind that 32 players were off the board to start the draft and my 1st pick was at #18. So I got really good value in that round. I then had 2 picks in the 3rd where I decided to roll the dice and took D. Driver as my WR3 and T. Bell as my RB2. The

Bell pick seemed a little bit of a reach but the RB pool was bare and I snagged K. Jones in the 10th. More value! I think McNabb looks good in the preseason but I decided to use my next pick on J. Kitna. There were already 14 QBs off the board when I took Kitna and 2 owners were still with out a starter. I got lucky to get J. Norwood in the 5th round as the 38th RB off the board. It was even more joyful to get him as C. Henry was the running back taken before him. Man did I laugh hard! The rest of the draft went pretty well and I think I have a really solid squad to start with.

 

Here is the follow up to the previous article discussing the change in ADP of the real Shark Drafts as compared to the Mock ADPs. I used the eight Mako Shark league drafts to analyze the players that were drafted higher then their Mock ADP and the players who slipped from their ADP. We focus on the 1st 6 rounds which are the meat of your roster.

 

Overall

Players

POS

Pre-Draft Rank

DRAFT ADP

High

Low

(+/-)

1

Tomlinson, Ladainian

RB

1

1

1

1

(E)

2

Jackson, Steven

RB

2

2.12

2

3

(E)

3

Gore, Frank

RB

3

4

2

7

(E)

4

Johnson, Larry

RB

4

4.12

3

5

(E)

5

Addai, Joseph

RB

6

5.62

3

8

(-1)

6

Alexander, Shaun

RB

9

6.5

3

9

(-3)

7

Parker, Willie

RB

5

7.5

4

11

(+2)

8

Westbrook, Brian

RB

7

8

3

11

(+1)

9

Bush, Reggie

RB

8

9.12

7

13

(+1)

10

Johnson, Rudi

RB

10

11.25

8

13

(E)

11

Maroney, Laurence

RB

11

11.75

9

15

(E)

12

Henry, Travis

RB

13

12.62

7

19

(-1)

 

 

As you can see there weren’t many surprises for the

1st round as most players were taken where they were expected to go.

 

 

Overall

Players

POS

Pre-Draft Rank

DRAFT ADP

High

Low

(+/-)

13

McGahee, Willis

RB

15

13.87

9

18

(-2)

14

Manning, Peyton

QB

24

14.62

4

21

(-10)

15

Jones-Drew, Maurice

RB

14

15.37

13

20

(+1)

16

James, Edgerrin

RB

18

16.25

11

24

(-2)

17

Smith, Steve

WR

17

17

13

24

(E)

18

Portis, Clinton

RB

12

17.12

12

23

(+6)

19

Brown, Ronnie

RB

21

17.75

15

20

(-2)

20

Johnson

,

Chad

WR

19

20

16

25

(+1)

21

Jones, Thomas

RB

16

21

19

24

(+5)

22

Benson, Cedric

RB

20

23

17

27

(+2)

23

Harrison, Marvin

WR

23

23.75

17

29

(E)

24

Wayne, Reggie

WR

22

26.62

23

30

(+2)

 

 

The 2nd round started to show some risers and fallers. Even though Peyton Manning goes very high in mocks, he went even higher in the real drafts. Portis and T. Jones slid in drafts but it was interesting as Jones’ slide was before his injury.

 

 

 

Overall

Players

POS

Pre-Draft Rank

DRAFT ADP

High

Low

(+/-)

25

Holt, Torry

WR

26

24.62

22

27

(-1)

26

Owens, Terrell

WR

25

25.25

18

28

(+1)

27

Williams, Carnell

RB

38

28.75

18

38

(-11)

28

Williams,

Roy

WR

30

30.5

28

36

(-2)

29

Fitzgerald, Larry

WR

29

30.62

25

35

(E)

30

Gates, Antonio

TE

41

31.75

17

46

(-11)

31

Jacobs,

Brandon

RB

31

33

22

42

(E)

32

Evans, Lee

WR

44

33.62

29

38

(-12)

33

Houshmandzadeh, T.J.

WR

32

34.25

29

42

(+1)

34

McAllister, Deuce

RB

27

35

26

48

(+7)

35

Boldin, Anquan

WR

33

36.25

31

41

(+2)

36

Walker, Javon

WR

35

36.37

30

46

(+1)

                          

 

We see in the 3rd round that some of the more prized players were taken a lot earlier then expected such as C. Williams, A. Gates and L. Evans. Williams is the biggest surprise here as he was one of the quietest running backs in mock drafts. Deuce provided the best value in this round and could be a steal for someone.

 

Overall

Players

POS

Pre-Draft Rank

DRAFT ADP

High

Low

(+/-)

37

Driver, Donald

WR

37

36.37

31

44

(E)

38

Palmer, Carson

QB

40

36.75

23

49

(-2)

39

Lynch, Marshawn

RB

28

37.62

20

44

(+11)

40

Colston, Marques

WR

34

40

33

46

(+6)

41

Johnson, Andre

WR

36

40.37

35

46

(+5)

42

Barber, Marion

RB

47

41.75

32

55

(-5)

43

Moss, Randy

WR

42

43.5

33

49

(+1)

44

Brees, Drew

QB

48

45

39

58

(-4)

45

Brady, Tom

QB

50

46.25

36

57

(-5)

46

Green, Ahman

RB

45

47.25

40

54

(+1)

47

Peterson,

Adrian

RB

43

47.87

36

57

(+4)

48

Burress, Plaxico

WR

46

48.75

41

53

(+2)

 

 

We enter the 4th round where the value is due

to players like Gates and Evans going early. Lynch, Colston and Johnson were the best values. Brady and Barber went higher in real drafts.

 

 

 

Overall

Players

POS

Pre-Draft Rank

DRAFT ADP

High

Low

(+/-)

49

Williams, DeAngelo

RB

39

50

45

54

(+10)

50

Bulger, Marc

QB

56

51.25

43

59

(-6)

51

Norwood

, Jerious

RB

54

52.62

31

78

(-3)

52

Lewis, Jamal

RB

52

53.87

40

77

(E)

53

Ward, Hines

WR

51

54.75

40

68

(+2)

54

Johnson, Calvin

WR

59

56.25

38

74

(-5)

55

Edwards, Braylon

WR

60

59.12

39

72

(-5)

56

Coles, Laveranues

WR

55

59

46

69

(+1)

57

McNabb, Donovan

QB

58

60.25

47

76

(-1)

58

Brown, Reggie

WR

49

60.37

42

86

(+9)

59

Jones, Julius

RB

57

60.87

45

83

(+2)

60

Branch, Deion

WR

61

61.25

43

81

(-1)

 

 

The 5th round had more change in value as players are now being shuffled around. Bulger continues the trend of top QBs that are drafted earlier in real drafts. The young receivers of C. Johnson and B. Edwards were also taken earlier. D. Williams fell in drafts due to Foxy’s commitment to Foster but can be a steal once the season starts. R. Brown is the best value WR in this round.

 

 

Overall

Players

POS

Pre-Draft Rank

DRAFT ADP

High

Low

(+/-)

61

Kitna, Jon

QB

72

63.75

56

75

(-11)

62

Bell

, Tatum

RB

73

65.5

28

84

(-11)

63

Galloway, Joey

WR

71

65.75

54

81

(-8)

64

Gonzalez, Tony

TE

74

68.12

60

78

(-10)

65

Heap, Todd

TE

65

69.5

61

84

(E)

66

Taylor, Fred

RB

62

69.62

60

85

(+2)

67

Moss, Santana

WR

63

71.25

64

83

(+4)

68

Jones, Kevin

RB

53

72.37

56

95

(+15)

69

Jackson, Darrell

WR

64

72.37

63

84

(+5)

70

Chambers, Chris

WR

66

72.75

55

90

(+4)

71

Shockey, Jeremy

TE

70

73.12

63

87

(+1)

72

Jackson,

Brandon

RB

69

73.37

65

89

(+3)

 

 

In the 6th round more players are drafted earlier then in mocks. Kitna,

Bell,

Galloway and Gonzalez were taken on average 10 spots higher on the ADP. K. Jones and D. Jackson provide the value. Depending on Jones’ status, he can be an excellent value if you drafted him late and he gets healthy or he could be a terrible investment if you drafted him high and he is placed on the PUP.

When looking to see if your draft had value or not you want to compare your picks with the ADP. The hope is that the majority of your players were drafted near or well below their draft spot. Then at the end of the season you can look at their performance and evaluate if you got the most value for your picks. This will help you on your preparation for 2008.

 

For those of you who have not yet drafted, use this analysis to help you gain value going into the draft. If you’re an owner who likes top 5 QBs, you will need to take them a little earlier then expected. Top 5 Defenses also went higher in real drafts. The key is to find the value. Good luck in the season.

 

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FantasySharks.com began in 2003, disseminating fantasy football content on the web for free. It is, or has been, home to some of the most talented and best known fantasy writers on the planet. Owned and operated by Tony Holm (5 time Fantasy Sports Writer Association Hall-of-Fame nominee,) Tony started writing fantasy content in 1993 for the only three fantasy football web sites in existence at the time.