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Pure Speculation for Audibles Week 7

I raced to the wire when I heard the news that Carson Palmer had been acquired by the Raiders. I missed him by about a minute and a half. I really do think that Palmer will be a good fit for the Raiders offense. However, what I found on the wire was even better for my needs. No one needs to tell me how bad the Rams are. I know first hand that they are underperforming. I don’t need them to win to get solid production out of a player though. I remain a St. Louis Rams’ fan regardless of the won/loss column but these opinions come from a fantasy football perspective.

I do, however, see a huge opportunity in the passing game and on the wire is Sam Bradford in two of my leagues. I immediately grabbed him and will place him on my bench until I see the passing game take flight. The nice thing about your fellow owners is that they panic when they lose, and they lose patience very quickly. I am certain that the Rams’ passing game will get on track. I have enough patience to play this game. There is no such thing as an instant fix in fantasy football. So while the knee jerk reaction may be to drop and hurry to the wire, the appropriate mind set is to see that Bradford has new weapons and a second half schedule that favors passing.

Let’s examine the match ups going forward:


Sam Bradford– St. Louis Rams
 

Week 7 @Dallas: (
Risky Play)

238.00 yards per game nine TDs given up through the air. Given the additions and Bradford’s injury status, it’s a risky play. Wait until next week.

Week 8 vs. New Orleans:(
Strong play)

256.30 yards passing per game 12 TDs given up through the air, rank 29 of 32 in points given up to QBs. Start with confidence if the injury is gone.
Should put up pretty serviceable numbers and two TDs. This is the week that they get back on track at home.

Week 9 @ Arizona (
Good play).

Defense gives up 258.80 yards per game,  six TDs given up through the air thus far 23 of 32 in points given up to QBs. Should have good yardage totals.
Although TDs may be limited to one or two.

Week 10 @ Cleveland (
Marginal play)

192.00 yards per game eight TDs given up through the air. Not a good enough matchup but the Rams may surprise.

Week 11 vs. Seattle (
Good play)

268.20 yards per game, six TDs through the air. This is my whole reason for the acquisition. Matt Shaub’s bye week should be a nice fill in. This was by far the best looking matchup on the board for me with the players available on the wire. Matt Cassel has the ideal matchup per the numbers this week, but when you take into the account the weather in New England on November 20, I lean toward Bradford inside the climate controlled Edwards Jones Dome. Weather has everything to do with the games on the east coast in late November and early December. Snow, wind, and slush are a huge probability.

Week 12 vs. Arizona (
Good play)

See Week 9 then add perfect conditions, plus the 12th man.

Week 13 @ San Francisco (
Good play)

261.00 Yards per game nine TDs given up through the air. I have heard it all about how good the 49ers defense is. They aren’t stopping the pass though as indicated by the numbers. Rams and 49ers have one of the best rivalries going. This is still a good play.

Week 14 @ Seattle (
Good play)

See Week 11 except consult your weather first. Seattle will be wet, slick, and windy.

Week 15 vs. Cincinnati (
Forget it)

Defensive unit has been solid. I think you should look elsewhere.

Figures don’t lie, but liars figure.


Sam Bradford has thrown an average of 39 times per game this year while only completing 52.82 percent of his passes. He has an average yards per catch of 11.36. If you look at the numbers based on averages, you get 233 yards per game. Now take into account that he has a new weapon in Brandon Lloyd who gets reunited with Josh Mcdaniels. The guy who helped him become the go-to guy in Denver.

Add in Mark Clayton who is 100 percent healthy and has good chemistry with Bradford. Danario Alexander‘s presence down field opens the slot for the quick slant pass. Defenses were sitting on those routes and the Rams were unable to stretch the field. The sum of these parts is sustained drives and better efficiency in the red zone.

I am a believer that Bradford returns to 60% completion percentage, that being said, we jump his 233 yards per game up to 265 yards per game. While most won’t be enamored with this number, add in a couple scores and you have a good start.

Bradford has thrown for over 300 yards twice this season (331 yards in week 2 at NYG,and 321 yards week 6 at GB.) Based on these numbers and the additions, it’s a solid add. While I didn’t get Carson Palmer, I did get a very serviceable signal caller for the low, low price of gratis. All because one owner in a couple of my leagues thought that he was junk, and had a panic attack because the season wasn’t going as he thought it should. Don’t be that guy.

I got a few emails about lineup and bye week starts. I appreciate all mail and will again offer up my two and a half cents. I answer every email, every time and hopefully the information that is given gets you to an easy decision.

Thanks for the read folks! Questions/Comments/Concerns to michaelfsarmento@gmail.com

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