When to select a QB in your fantasy draft is extremely important, because this year there is a lot of depth at the position. For this reason alone, you must make sure to select your QB at the perfect time. Below I will give you the current ADP of the top QBs, then let you know if he’s worth drafting at that point or should you pass.
* Note: I will be using Yahoo’s ADP for my research, and this is assuming a 12-team league.
1) Cam Newton – ADP 19.8 – If Newton were available to pick within the first 3 rounds I would pass on him. There is just way too much talent at the QB position to waste your 2nd round pick on a QB. Cam Newton had an amazing season last year with all the TDs he scored (passing, and rushing), however you can wait until the later rounds to draft a QB.
2) Russell Wilson – ADP 34 – Wilson is another QB I would have to pass on if he were available to me at pick 34. Here are two reasons why I would pass on Wilson at his current ADP. One, I actually like other QBs going later than him, and two, camp talk in Seattle isn’t giving me any idea if they will go run heavy again this season, or if they will let Wilson air it out again like he did in the second half of last season.
3) Ben Roethlisberger – 39.8 – Writing this breaks my heart because I personally believe Big Ben will have the best fantasy season out of all the QBs this season. I also believe that he is in a perfect offensive philosophy that will always put the game, and the offense in his hands. Early camp talk states that the Steelers want to average at least 30 ppg, and I don’t see how that is not possible with all the weapons this team has. We also can’t forget that the Steelers love going for 2; So that’s bonus points if Big Ben converts his 2-point conversions via the air. With all that said, I still can’t get myself to draft Big Ben in the early 3rd round with all the available skill positions still out there. I find Roethlisberger’s ADP a round and a half to early for me. If he were available during the mid-4th round that would be a totally different story however.
4) Eli Manning – ADP 85.7 – Manning is a QB I would have no problem drafting at his current ADP. Eli had an amazing statistical season last year amassing 4,432 passing yards with 35 passing TDs. Part of the reason for his offensive explosion was the fact that he was always playing from behind due to the Giants terrible defense. The Giants might now have the best front four in the NFL after all of the free agency additions made during March. However, they still wont be able to stop the pass with Landon Collins still being their starting safety (according to PFF Collins was the 7th worst coverage safety in all of the NFL last season). I see the Giants still being in a lot of shootouts, which would give Manning great value in fantasy circles of course.
Enough with gameflow talk though. Eli has one of the best WRs in football to throw the ball to, Odell Beckham. On top of this, the Giants drafted Sterling Shepard out of Oklahoma to take the No. 2 WR position behind OBJ. So, all in all, Eli has OBJ, Shepard, a healthy Cruz (MAYBE), and Shane Vereen to throw the ball to in games that should be close. Count me in on Eli! I promise, he will not disappoint you or your fantasy team. He might even out-perform some of the QBs selected before him.
5) Blake Bortles – ADP 63.3 – At his current ADP, avoid Bortles like the plague. He is in no way, shape, or form worth the 63rd pick in your upcoming fantasy draft. Currently, quarterbacks going after Blake are Tom Brady, Eli Manning, and Philip Rivers. I would much rather have any of those three QBs over Bortles any week of the season. Most of Blake’s amazing numbers last year came in garbage time. I’m predicting that, 1) The Jaguars will be a better defense than they were last year with all the additions they made during the off-season, and 2) For the Jaguars to run the ball more than people think. Chris Ivory wasn’t paid $10 million in guaranteed money to watch Bortles throw the ball over 40 times a game like he did last season. All in all, avoid Bortles and look for better QB options in the later rounds.
– Round I would consider drafting Blake Bortles – Mid 8th round – Early 9th round.
– Players available while Blake Bortles is on the board – Eli Manning, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Matt Jones, John Brown, Larry Fitzgerald, and Frank Gore.
6) Philip Rivers – ADP 112.3 – Rivers is a QB I will probably have on a lot of my fantasy teams along with Eli Manning. Rivers is going to absolutely demolish his current ADP with all the weapons he has at his disposal this season. Right now Rivers has an abundance of talent to throw the ball to at WR, and he was even gifted an athletic freak of a TE by the name of Hunter Henry during this year’s draft. Some players Rivers will target a lot this season will be Keenan Allen, Travis Benjamin, Stevie Johnson, Antonio Gates, and of course Danny Woodhead. If health is on San Diego’s side this season, I can see Rivers putting up numbers that can make him a top-6 QB in fantasy football.
– Round I would consider drafting Philip Rivers – Early 7th round.
– Players available while Philip Rivers is still on the board – Duke Johnson, Markus Wheaton, Steve Smith, Willie Snead, and Danny Woodhead.
7) Joe Flacco – ADP 125.1 – Knee injury aside, I think Flacco will be a great value pick in the middle of the 10th round. The Baltimore Ravens very quietly led the league in pass attempts last season. The current offensive coordinator of the Ravens, Marc Trestman, as we all know in fantasy circles is a very friendly QB coach. I believe we will see Joe air it out this season to keep his Ravens competitive during their games. Another thing we can’t forget is that Flacco has a lot of receivers, and tight ends to throw the ball to for him to put up solid numbers. There are currently four Raven WRs that can be offensive game contributors on any given week. Ozzie Newsome even added Ben Watson to the TE rotation along with Maxx Williams, and Gillmore. In conclusion, if you are stuck in the later rounds without having already drafted a QB, I would have no problem using that pick on Flacco. Just make sure you pair him with another QB to be safe (Matt Ryan, Jameis Winston).
Round I would consider drafting Joe Flacco – Mid 10th – Early 11th round.
Players available while Joe Flacco is still on the board – Matt Ryan, Jameis Winston, Kenneth Dixon, Sammie Coates, Martellus Bennett, and Devontae Booker.