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Quality Game Scores – Year in Review – QB

The 2010 fantasy football season is quickly approaching, so let’s take some time to review the 2009 season and see just how consistent your fantasy players were.

Many times throughout my 25 years in fantasy football I have heard the complaint of how your team was in top three or four in scoring, but you didn’t make the playoffs. This was why I created the quality game scores concept in the first place, in order to identify those players who were not only good (in total fantasy points), but consistently good.

Let’s take a look at the quarterbacks and see who was consistently good, just good and consistently bad. We’re also going to look at this position for the expected and unexpected quarterbacks in 2009, plus which quarterbacks could be a “sleeper” going into next year’s draft.

So, let’s start with the Top 25 quarterbacks ranked by total quality games earned.


 


Player Name

Total Points

Average Points

Total Quality Games

Total Games Played

Quality Game Success Rate

Aaron Rodgers

391.1

1

14

16

88%

Peyton Manning

339.7

4

14

16

88%

Drew Brees

353.7

2

13

15

87%

Matt Schaub

343.6

3

12

16

75%

Tony Romo

331.65

6

12

16

75%

Philip Rivers

323.7

9

12

16

75%

Ben Roethlisberger

325.3

8

11

15

73%

Tom Brady

327.3

7

11

16

69%

Eli Manning

293.55

10

11

16

69%

Kurt Warner

276.9

13

10

15

67%

Brett Favre

333.8

5

10

16

63%

Kyle Orton

267.2

16

10

16

63%

Donovan McNabb

278.75

12

9

14

64%

David Garrard

272.15

15

9

16

56%

Jay Cutler

287.5

11

8

16

50%







Carson

Palmer

251

18

8

16

50%

Matt Ryan

228.7

19

7

14

50%

Jason Campbell

272.5

14

7

16

44%

Joe Flacco

256.85

17

7

16

44%

Matt Hasselbeck

211.35

20

6

14

43%

Matt Cassel

210.8

21

6

15

40%

Alex Smith

181.6

23

5

11

45%

Vince Young

165.05

26

5

12

42%







Chad

Henne

187.1

22

5

14

36%

Matthew Stafford

167.15

25

4

10

40%


 


THE EXPECTED


 

Peyton Manning
and
Drew Brees at No. 4 and No. 2, respectively, is an obvious expected. Both headed into the season as the top two fantasy quarterbacks. Manning was perfect in quality games all season through Week 15 and then due to the Indianapolis Colts management’s “protection plan” in the last two weeks, he missed earning a quality game in each one. Brees was solid most of the season, though he did slack off near the end of the year, but still earned a quality game until Week 17.

Aaron Rodgers
was expected to be a top fantasy quarterback. In fact, I predicted he would be a top three quarterback. Would I have bet my house on him being at the top in overall fantasy point by almost 40 points over Brees and 50 points over Manning and be tied as the top quality game earner with 14? Probably not. What is the main difference in separating Rodgers from these two? His feet! Rodgers had 304 yards rushing and five rushing touchdowns. Brees had 34 yards and two rushing touchdowns. Manning had -13 (yes, that’s a minus sign) yards rushing and zero rushing touchdowns. Case closed.


THE UNEXPECTED

I know this may seem weird that we are already heading towards the unexpected. However, continue on and I think you’ll see why I believe the remainder of these players were unexpectedly (good or bad) in the rankings (both in overall points and quality games earned).

We start with
Matt Schaub. I pat myself on the back because I did believe that if Schaub played all 16 games he would make the top six fantasy quarterbacks. So first, Schaub did play all 16 games. That was unexpected. Second, Schaub ended the season as the No. 3 overall quarterback in fantasy points and had the second highest number of quality games earned with 13. Again, I predicted good, but not that good. Can he do it again in 2010? Tough call. I’m predicting no, but I hope I’m wrong.

The “roller coaster ride” known as
Brett Favre had Minnesota Vikings fans and fantasy owners in a tizzy all season. It was unexpected that he would play for the Vikings. He did. He was expected not to be very good. He was, as he ranked fifth overall in fantasy points. However, where he killed fantasy teams was with his inconsistency. He only earned 10 quality games, but so did Kyle Orton and he was ranked 16th! You see my point. His 63 percent quality game success rate was awful for someone who ranked fifth overall.

Another disappointing, unexpected in 2009 was
Philip Rivers. He ranked in many experts’ top five for 2009 and while the Chargers as a team did well, Rivers ended the season ranked as the ninth-best quarterback in total fantasy points. Of course, at least Rivers didn’t have as high as expectations as
Tom Brady. Brady, coming back from missing the entire 2008 season, except for the first quarter of the first game, was ranked in the top five, if not top three by most experts. He finished the year ranked seventh overall, but it was Brady’s inconsistency that killed many fantasy teams who drafted him in the first 2-3 rounds. Most of us expect better than a 69 percent success rate from Brady.

An unexpected good came from
Tony Romo this season as he ended the season ranked sixth overall and had a 75 percent success rate. Many experts placed Romo out of the Top 10 and sometimes outside of the Top 15. Many thought Romo was done when
Terrell Owens and Jessica Simpson left town. He wasn’t.

Another unexpected good was
Ben Roethlisberger in 2009. I’m pretty sure that he wasn’t ranked in the Top 12 during the preseason and yet, even though he missed a game due to injury, he ended the season ranked eighth overall and earned a 73 percent success rate. He’s one to keep an eye on going into next season.

Here’s a quickie for you.
Donovan McNabb did not play a full 16-game season again. For the love of whomever, please do not draft him ever in your fantasy leagues. He just can’t stay healthy.

I’m saving my last unexpected for the
Jay Cutler and
Kyle Orton combo. The offseason trade put many fantasy experts high on Cutler and the Bears and down on Orton and the Broncos’ offense. While neither of them impressed anyone by the end of the season, Cutler did prove that he’s just as inconsistent in


Chicago
as he was in





Denver
by ranking 11th overall and only having a 50 percent success rate. Orton proved that he’s not a fantasy stud, but he’s pretty consistent as he earned two more quality games than Cutler, but only ranked 16th overall.

Well, there’s your quality game (consistency rankings) for the quarterbacks in 2009. If you didn’t make the playoffs and you had Favre or Brady on your team and can’t understand why, I hope this helped clear things up.

If you have any questions about the quality game scores, you can e-mail  your questions to bob@bigguyfantasysports.com or just visit the website (www.bigguyfantasysports.com) and check out all of the great consistency analysis.

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FantasySharks.com began in 2003, disseminating fantasy football content on the web for free. It is, or has been, home to some of the most talented and best known fantasy writers on the planet. Owned and operated by Tony Holm (5 time Fantasy Sports Writer Association Hall-of-Fame nominee,) Tony started writing fantasy content in 1993 for the only three fantasy football web sites in existence at the time.