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Quality Game Scores – Year in Review – RB

Let’s take a look at who were the most consistent runningbacks in 2009. We’re going to look at those runningbacks who were consistently good, just good and consistently bad. We’re also going to look at this position for the expected and unexpected runningbacks of 2009, plus which runningbacks could be “sleepers” going into next year’s draft.



So, let’s start with the first tier of the top runningbacks ranked by their quality game success rate.


 


TIER ONE


Player

Total Points


Rank


Total Quality Games


Total Games Played


Quality Game Success Rate


Adrian Peterson


284.5

2


15


16


94%

Chris Johnson


343.9


1


13


16


81%


Ray Rice


249.1


4


13


16


81%


Thomas Jones


230


5


13


16


81%


Ryan Grant


210


8


13


16


81%


Joseph Addai


198.5


9


12


15


80%



 

The top tier of consistent runningbacks for 2009 consists of runningbacks that had an 80 percent or higher QGSR (Quality Game Success Rate). These names are familiar to the fantasy world.
Ray Rice, surprised all of us, but if you played fantasy football, you’re not surprised to see him here.

What surprises many fantasy players who are new to the quality game scores (i.e., consistency factor), is the fact that they would have expected the top six runningbacks with an over 80 percent QGSR to also be the top six overall fantasy points scorers. As you can see, they’re not.
Ryan Grant and
Joseph Addai ranked eighth and ninth overall. Therefore over 80 percent of their games they scored over the quality game factor (9.34 fantasy points per game), but they didn’t score much over that amount each week either. Actually, they both averaged over 13 points per game played, so don’t be too down on them.


 


THE EXPECTED

Adrian Peterson
was Mr. Consistency this season with a 94 percent QGSR. When you realize that second place was 81 percent, you realize that he dominated the consistency world at runningback. Now, here’s the funny part of this. Many fantasy experts called Peterson’s year a disappointment because of Brett Favre “stealing” so many redzone touchdowns from Peterson this season.

Chris Johnson
is the man that everyone was talking about in 2009! His No. 1 overall points victory by a 60-point margin over Peterson was the “water cooler” talk of the year. The reason for this talk was Johnson’s perfect 10-for-10 quality games over the last weeks of the season including the fantasy playoffs (even in Week 17). Was he expected to be good? Yes. Was he expected to No. 1 overall? Nope.


 


THE UNEXPECTED

Rice was a highly touted runningback out of college. However, there are always great college runningbacks coming into the league, but most don’t end up their second year as the No. 4 runningback in overall points and with an 80 percent QGSR. Just for a minute, factor in the 12 rushing touchdowns that
Willis McGahee “vultured” away from him, it’s almost scary how good he should be someday.

Thomas Jones
was expected to be “stepping aside” for the new era in the New York Jets running game for Leon Washington and stud rookie Shonn Greene. Jones didn’t “step aside.”

Washington
got hurt and Greene did little to move Jones out of his starting role. The offseason question was, “Is Jones done in



New York
?” The answer is yes, as now he is in

Kansas City
with Jamaal Charles. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him flourish there.

Ryan Grant and Joseph Addai weren’t expected to be Top 15 runningbacks. In fact, most rankings had them in the 16-24 range of the runningbacks. Grant and Addai not only ended up as the ninth and eighth overall runningbacks in fantasy points, but they both ended up an over 80 percent QGSR.


 
 


TIER TWO



 

Player

Total Points



 

Rank


Total Quality Games

Total Games Played


Quality Game Success


Rate


Frank Gore


228.6

6


11


14


79

Ronnie Brown


125.65


33


7


9


78


Cedric Benson


172.2


15


10


13


77


Maurice Jones-Drew


271.5


3


12


16


75


Steven Jackson


195.8


10


11


15


73


Michael Turner


148.6


22


8


11


73


Ladainian Tomlinson


158.4


19


10


14


71


DeAngelo Williams


175.9


14


9


13


69


Ricky Williams


214.5


7


11


16


69



 


THE EXPECTED

Frank Gore
was all over the fantasy experts’ boards, ranking from sixth to 15th. However, Gore proved he belongs by ranking sixth overall (even though he missed two games). He also had an excellent 79 percent QGSR.

Maurice Jones-Drew
ended third overall, which was expected by most fantasy experts. His consistency was marginal at a 75 percent. This was his first full season without Fred Taylor, so we’ll give him a break. He will continue to be a stud for years to come.

While many would say that they did not expect
Steven Jackson to end the season ranked 10th overall, I can honestly say that I did. With no other offensive weapons on the Rams, as much as I love



Jackson
as a player, there was just no way I felt he could end up in the top five or six. If he is undervalued in your draft next year and you can get him as your No. 2 runningback, do it!



THE UNEXPECTED

Injuries to
Ronnie Brown, Michael Turner and
DeAngelo Williams caused all three of these projected 2009 studs to disappoint many fantasy teams. The good news was that when they played their success rate was close to 70 percent or higher. Don’t hesitate to draft these players in 2010. All three should be undervalued due to the injuries.

Cedric Benson
was barely even a blip on the radar prior to the fantasy drafts, but Benson exploded onto the fantasy world with seven out of eight quality games until the injury bit him and slowed him down the rest of the season. He missed three games and was still ranked 15th overall and had a 77 percent QGSR.

Ricky Williams
was grossly undervalued in the preseason and for good reason, as he has Brown in front of him. However, Williams proved his worth both when he shared the field with Brown and even more so after Brown got hurt. He ended the season ranked seventh overall.

LaDainian Tomlinson was given high expectations by myself and others. However, after Week 9, Tomlinson had only earned three quality games for the year and was looking pretty bad in doing it. But, something clicked inside him at the start of Week 10 and he earned seven quality games over the next eight weeks to end the season with a 71 percent QGSR. Not what was expected of him, but still a nice comeback after such a horrible start.


 

                                            
TIER THREE


 

Player

Total Points


Rank


Total Quality Games


Total Games

Played


Quality Game Success Rate


Steve Slaton


122.4

35


7


11


64%


Marion Barber


155.3

21


9


15


60%


Pierre Thomas


156.5


20


8


14


57%


Rashard Mendenhall


181.9


13


9


16


56%


Knowshon Moreno


166


17


9


16


56%


Tim Hightower


146.6


24


9


16


56%


Carnell Williams


145.5


26


9


16


56%


Kevin Smith


143.6


27


7


13


54%


Jamaal Charles


186.7


12


8


15


53%


Laurence Maroney


135.6


30


8


15


53%


Jonathan Stewart


191.2


11


8


16


50%


Fred Jackson


170.65


16


8


16


50%


Matt Forte


161


18


7


16


44%



 

This tier consists of a bunch of different scenarios. We have
Steve Slaton and
Marion Barber at the top of this tier and
Matt Forte at the bottom. These players were ranked in the Top 15 during the preseason. However, injuries and the “sophomore” jinx kicked in and these three just couldn’t get it going.


 

Another group in here is the future stars at runningback.
Pierre Thomas, Rashard Mendenhall, Knowshon Moreno, Jonathan Stewart, Jamaal Charles and
Fred Jackson are all players to keep an eye on leading into the 2010 season.

The last group in this tier is the washed-up players like
Laurence Maroney and
Carnell Williams. They have a few good games to keep your interest, but they’re too inconsistent to worry about.

Well, there’s your quality game (consistency rankings) for the runningbacks in 2009. If you didn’t make the playoffs and you had Slaton or Forte on your team and can’t understand why, I hope this helped clear things up.

If you have any questions about the quality game scores, you can e-mail me your questions to bob@bigguyfantasysports.com or just visit the website (www.bigguyfantasysports.com) and check out all of the great consistency analysis.

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