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Quality Game Scores – Year in Review – WR

The wide receivers certainly had those players who were consistently good, just good and consistently bad. We’re going to look at this position for the expected and unexpected wide receivers in 2009, plus which wide receivers could be “sleepers” going into this year’s draft.

So, let’s start with the first tier of the top wide receivers ranked by their Quality Game Success Rate (QGSR).


 


TIER ONE


Player Name


Total Points


Rank


Total Quality Games

Total Games Played


Quality Game Success Rate


Larry Fitzgerald


187.2

5


12


16


75%


DeSean Jackson


189.4


4


11


15


73%


Wes Welker


162.4


12


10


14


71%


Miles Austin


197.8


3


11


16


69%



 

In contrast to the quarterbacks and runningbacks over the past couple of days, the top tier of consistent wide receivers for 2009 consists of wide receivers that had a 69 percent to 75 percent QGSR. Before we get too critical about the top tier of receivers this year, in 2008, the top tier of wide receivers with a 69 percent or higher QGSR included only six receivers.

What surprises many fantasy players who are new to the quality game scores (i.e., consistency factor), is the fact that they would have expected the top four wide receivers with an approximate 70 percent QGSR to also be the top four overall fantasy points scorers. As you can see, they’re not.
Wes Welker ranked 12th overall, while the other three receivers were ranked third, fourth and fifth. The top two overall receivers didn’t even earn a quality game more than 70 percent of the time. This trend of teams spreading the ball around to other receivers to stop teams from double-teaming the studs appears to be working for the real teams, but not the fantasy teams.


THE EXPECTED




Larry Fitzgerald
was Mr. Consistency last season and won the award again this season. Last year, however, Fitzgerald had an 88 percent QGSR, so while he maintained his top status, his consistency came down a little to stay closer to the pack.

Wes Welker
is one of those receivers that you always think of when you think consistency, right? Not exactly. In any league, that includes one point per reception, Welker is a stud. But, in a non-PPR league in 2008, Welker earned only eight quality games out of 16 for a sad 50 percent QGSR. However, in 2009, Welker became a consistent player even in non-PPR leagues and helped many teams to their fantasy championship.


THE UNEXPECTED

DeSean Jackson
had a solid rookie season with seven quality games and was one of my expected sleepers in 2009. But, I never expected



Jackson
to jump straight to the elite group and end up fourth for the season overall and have a 73 percent QGSR. His QGSR in 2008 was only 44 percent.

The biggest unexpected in this top tier is easily
Miles Austin. In 2008,



Austin
was basically a fourth-string receiver behind Terrell Owens, Roy Williams and Patrick Crayton. However, all of that changed this year, as



Austin
became Tony Romo’s favorite target and he proved he’s a future star in the NFL. He will certainly be a Top 10 receiver in 2010, if not top five.


 


TIER TWO



 

Player Name


Total Points


Rank


Total Quality Game


Total Games Played

Quality Game Success Rate


Andre Johnson


211.9


1


10


16


63%


Randy Moss


203.4


2


10


16


63%


Reggie Wayne


186.4


6


10


16


63%


Roddy White


181.5


7


10


16


63%


Sidney Rice


178.2


8


10


16


63%






Chad


OchoCinco


159.9


14


10


16


63%


Santonio Holmes


155.4


15


10


16


63%


Derrick Mason


145

17


10


16


63%



 


THE EXPECTED

I find it amazing that eight wide receivers all had the exact same QGSR of 63 percent. Beyond that, we finally see our No. 1 and No. 2 overall receivers in
Andre Johnson and
Randy Moss. We also expected
Reggie Wayne and
Roddy White to be at least in this tier, even though

Wayne
is normally in the top tier.

The one that you don’t expect is probably
Derrick Mason. However, over the past three seasons combined only five other receivers have more total quality games. He’s always a quality game sleeper every season in the draft.


THE UNEXPECTED

Chad Ochocinco
talked a big talk, as always, this previous offseason and for once he backed it up with a fairly consistent year. I call it unexpected since

Ochocinco seemed to be on the downhill slide. However, I’m not sold this uphill trend will continue into next season.

Sidney Rice
was not expected to be the top Vikings receiver in 2009. It was supposed to be Bernard Berrian, but Rice stepped up big time last year and became Brett Favre’s favorite target fairly early in the season and he never let go.

There weren’t many
Santonio Holmes fans. I especially was down on him for a big reason and that was his inconsistency. However, unexpectedly, 

Holmes stepped up and was as consistent as Johnson, Moss and



Wayne
this season. 


 


TIER THREE



 

Player Name


Total Points


Rank


Total Quality Games


Total Games Played


Quality Game Success Rate


Brandon Marshall


175.9


9


9


15


60%


Vincent Jackson


171.8


10


9


15


60%


Steve Smith (CAR)


142.4


19


9


15


60%


Calvin Johnson


133.7


21


8


14


57%


Steve Smith (NYG)


164


11


9


16


56%


Marques Colston


160


13


9


16


56%


Hines Ward


151.7


16


9


16


56%


Robert Meachem


133.4


22


8


16


50%


Mario Manningham


111.2


29


7


14


50%



 

Our last tier has a number of players that were expected to be top wide receivers. Now, some will look at the overall fantasy points for the year and see
Brandon Marshall and
Vincent Jackson at the ninth and 10th spots and say, “Hey, these guys were Top 10 receivers.” OK, but I will tell you that their 60 percent QGSR didn’t help too many fantasy teams who drafted these two to be their No.1 or even No. 2 receivers.

Marques Colston
ended the season ranked 13th. Not bad, not what people expected out of one of the supposedly future stars in the NFL. Even worse was his 56 percent QGSR.

However, two of the most disappointing stars in 2009 were

Carolina
’s
Steve Smith and
Calvin Johnson. Their rankings of 19th and 21st made many fantasy owners suicidal at best.

The other
Steve Smith was actually a pleasant surprise at 11th overall. He was certainly as inconsistent as these others, but was obviously drafted much lower and therefore his value way exceeded his draft position.

Hines Ward, Robert Meachem
and
Mario Manningham all exceeded their draft position value in 2009 and I would expect Meachem to improve in 2010. I’m not 100 percent sold on Manningham’s future and Ward is certainly on the downslope in his career.

Well, there’s your quality game (consistency rankings) for the wide receivers in 2009. If you didn’t make the playoffs and you had Colston or Calvin Johnson on your team and can’t understand why, I hope this helped clear things up.

If you have any questions about the quality game scores, you can e-mail me your questions at bob@bigguyfantasysports.com or just visit the website (www.bigguyfantasysports.com) and check out all of the great consistency analysis.

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