Last week I discussed a few wide receiver player props on which you should be betting. Here are some plus money bets you should make this preseason at the quarterback position. See the bottom of each of my column’s for a full list of each bet I have made entering this season. I will also be releasing plays on my Twitter @nicky_stats.
Justin Fields to Start Week 1 for Chicago (+190) DraftKings
Trey Lance to Start Week 1 for San Francisco (+250) DraftKings
We lost value on both of these picks as they were +250 and +333 respectively prior to Week 1 of the preseason. However, you are still getting big plus money on both of these quarterbacks and just need 1-of-2 to hit to make a profit. Both situations could be a coin flip of who gets the call, and while both coaches are leaning to the veterans, it is the rookies who likely to give each team that extra punch. From Chicago’s perspective, what is the team really gaining by starting Andy Dalton in Week 1? As for San Francisco, Lance has been playing well throughout camp and even though coach Kyle Shanahan said he would be surprised if Lance starts Week 1, there are still more than three weeks before opening day and two preseason games to go.
Most books are not giving a price on Chicago’s or San Francisco’s starters so lock this in on DraftKings while it lasts. FanDuel only has Week 1 starting quarterbacks odds for Denver, New England and New Orleans.
Joe Burrow – 4,150.5 Passing Yards OVER (-110) Caesars
This was the best number I could find on Burrow as he was listed at 4,200 yards or higher on DraftKings, FanDuel or Fox Bet. Despite its training camp struggles, I expect the Cincinnati offense do very well this season with all of its weapons. The defense should be very bad and lead to more passing attempts for Burrow and the offense. As long as he is healthy, he will be able to reach this yardage total in a 17-game season. He was on pace to eclipse this number last year until he suffered the season-ending injury.
QB with the Most INTs: Josh Allen (+3500) DraftKings
This is obviously is a long-shot play, but let’s break down this category. For this bet, you need a quarterback who is going to play nearly the full season. You also need a team that throws the ball a lot and isn’t afraid to take shots — Buffalo’s Josh Allen fits both of those categories. The league leader in 2020 had 15 interceptions while Allen threw 10. He had just nine in 2019, but had 12 in only 12 games in his rookie season. This isn’t a shot against Allen as he could still have plenty of success this season and threaten to win this bet at big odds. In odds comparison, FanDuel has Allen at just 20/1 so this is worth sprinkling some cash on at 35/1.
NFL MVP: Russell Wilson (+2000) FanDuel
I’ve been burned plenty of times by this Russell Wilson MVP bet, but I will go back to the well again. It finally seemed that 2020 was going to be the year that Seattle finally let Wilson loose as he was on track for the MVP after the first-half of the season. He threw for 28 touchdowns in the first eight games of 2020, but just 12 the rest of the way; Seattle was winning games, but was not as impressive offensively. Other than Adrian Peterson in 2012, a quarterback has won the award every year since 2007. DraftKings has seen action on Wilson and his odds are down to +1400 so lock him in at 20/1 at Caesars or FanDuel.
Full Recap of Picks
- Most Regular Season Passing Yards: Joe Burrow (+2500) DraftKings (8/10/21)
- Most Regular Season Rushing Yards: Ezekiel Elliott (+2000) Caesars (8/10/21)
- Most Regular Season Receiving TD: A.J. Brown (+2000) DraftKings (8/10/21)
- Coach of the Year: Andy Reid (+2800) DraftKings (8/10/21)
- Defensive Player of the Year: Chase Young (+1600) Caesars (8/10/21)
- Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati – OVER 825.5 yards (-112) FanDuel (8/14/21)
- DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia – UNDER 835.5 yards (-110) FOX Bet (8/14/21)
- Will Fuller, Miami – UNDER 915.5 yards (-110) FOX Bet (8/14/21)
- Justin Fields to Start Week 1 for Chicago (+190) DraftKings (8/18/21)
- Trey Lance to Start Week 1 for San Francisco (+250) DraftKings (8/18/21)
- Joe Burrow, Cincinnati – 4,150.5 Passing Yards OVER (-110) Caesars (8/18/21)
- QB with the Most INTs: Josh Allen (+3500) DraftKings (8/18/21)
- NFL MVP: Russell Wilson (+2000) FanDuel (8/18/21)
Stay tuned for more futures and player props as the preseason moves along. Send your comments and questions on Twitter @nicky_stats