Friday - Feb 22, 2019

Home / Commentary / RapidDraft ADP: What are the Experts Thinking?

RapidDraft ADP: What are the Experts Thinking?

I know that most of you guys have probably been consumed with all the drama going on with “Jon and Kate Plus 8” that you probably haven’t had much time for fantasy football related activities.  So, don’t worry, The Corner of Knowledge has you covered!  We’ve done all the legwork and put together the ADP for 12 players that we thought you would be the most curious about in regards to RapidDraft.

This data is exclusively on FantasySharks.com and comes with a very short shelf life.  According to RapidDraft, “The draft rankings or player lists are updated dynamically – often hourly, daily, or weekly – based on subjective analysis, breaking player news and research done by each Pro. This approach gives each Participant a life-like experience against 11 competitors that draft like the friends and family Participants typically compete against in local fantasy football leagues.”  With that being said, I’m sure that once the experts’ tendencies become public, changes will be made.

Also, as we get closer to the start of training camp and roles become more defined, some of the draft values that are available at the moment are going to disappear.  For example, according to the Baton Rouge Advocate, when asked if he felt a need to add a short-yardage back,
Saints’ coach Sean Payton replied, “Not right now. I know a lot has been written about that, but I think the guy we’re looking for may already be in the building.”  That guy is
Pierre Thomas.  Thomas has added between 10-15 pounds of muscle and is in line to pick up the slack left by the departed Deuce McAllister.

Yet, the ADP of
Pierre Thomas and
Reggie Bush would seem to indicate that the ‘experts’ aren’t buying it.  Bush is being selected almost one full round, 11 picks, ahead of Thomas.  Based on 30 RapidDrafts, Bush’s ADP is 30.3 and Thomas’ ADP is 41.2.  But, when you checkout MockDraftCentral.com, you see almost the complete opposite, as Thomas’ ADP is 32.38 and Bush’s ADP is 41.16, nearly nine picks after Thomas.  The MockDraftCentral.com data was compiled through 45 drafts employing the PPR scoring method.

I think Thomas is one of the steals of the draft as a mid-fourth round pick.  There is no doubt that a healthy Reggie Bush would be a monster in a PPR league.  But, given that Bush has only played in 10 and 12 games over the last two seasons and that he is still only 75% following microfracture surgery, there is little evidence to warrant taking Bush over Thomas.  I believe that Thomas has a chance to put up 1st round numbers and is the type of pick that will win his owners a championship.

According to the ‘experts’, you might as well flip a coin when it comes to drafting Pierre Thomas and
Knowshon Moreno.  Thomas has an ADP of 41.2, while Moreno’s ADP is 41.1.  I’ve already sung the praises of Thomas, so as you can guess, there is no way that I would draft Moreno ahead of Thomas.  Sure, Denver spent the 12th pick in the first round on Moreno, but do you really believe that he is going to out-produce Thomas?  The presence of J.J. Arrington, Correll Buckhalter and Lamont Jordan should be enough to lower Moreno’s workload such that Pierre Thomas is the hands down choice between the two.  And, just in case you thought that Denver had enough running backs after the drafting of Moreno, they went out and signed former Houston Texans’ RB
Darius Walker in early May.

For those of you who feel the need to have Moreno on your roster, rest assured that when you’re not drafting against the ‘experts’, you can get him almost 20 picks later at pick 60.76, according to MockDraftCentral.com.

The ‘experts’ had
Chris Wells, with and ADP of 52.1, nine picks higher than
Tim Hightower, with an ADP of 61.43.  I can’t argue with that, but what I found interesting is that even with an ADP of 52.1, Wells never went higher than 49th.  So, should you decide to draft from the first position, at least up until now given the 30 drafts that I used, you can project Wells to be available as a RB option on the 4/5 turn.

As for the non-experts, they had Wells and Hightower separated by only two picks.  With the good news being that you could wait another two rounds before grabbing Wells at pick 75.38 or Hightower at pick 77.98.

The ‘experts’ felt that
Anquan Boldin has enough baggage that he should be a third round pick with an ADP of 28.67.  So, if you’re looking to grab Boldin you can probably get him as a late second round pick and if you want to press your luck, wait a while, as he’s fallen to the fourth round in a few drafts.  Regardless of where Boldin is playing next season, an ADP in the thrid round is an absolute steal for the guy who was the best WR based on per game stats.

In 2008, the Baltimore Ravens were fourth in the NFL with 148.5 yards rushing per game.  In 2007, the San Diego Chargers were seventh in the NFL with 127.4 rushing yards per game. 
Lorenzo Neal, now with the Raiders, was the fullback on both of those teams.  With an ADP of 45.2,
Darren McFadden, who reportedly is 100% healthy, represents a high-risk/high-reward type player.  I’m sure Al Davis didn’t approve the signing of Neal to help open holes for
Justin Fargas.  Even though the last time Al Davis wasn’t a punchline was probably when Justin’s dad was paying the bills as
Huggy Bear.

The Steelers drafted
Rashard Mendenhall in the first round of the 2008 draft with the thought that he would take some of the load off of speedster
Willie Parker.  Fumbleitis and an unfortunate run-in with Ray Lewis ended all of that after just 19 carries.  But, the opportunity still remains for Mendenhall to have a major roll in Pittsburgh’s running game as Parker missed five games due to an injury and scored only two touchdowns after the opening weekend.  With Parker’s days as a featured back gone, I’d much rather have Mendenhall at pick# 78.9, than Parker who is going off the board almost three rounds earlier
at pick# 45.3.

Here’s the recipe for a timeshare, have
Joseph Addai miss four games due to injury and rush for over 100 yards only once.  Add in the 31st ranked rushing offense.  Then throw in a first round running back named
Donald Brown.  Mix together and there you have it…a timeshare at RB.  Given those stats the ‘experts’ are still high on Joseph Addai with an ADP of 24.47, meanwhile you can grab Donald Brown over 3 1/2 rounds later with pick 64.53.  With the loss of Marvin Harrison, the thought was that the Colts needed to grab a WR early in the draft, but obviously, the Colts’ brass disagreed.  With an offensive line that has nowhere to go but up and a definite role waiting for him, look for Brown to be the far better value come draft day.

Going into the 2008 fantasy season
LaDainian Tomlinson was the consensus #1 pick.  But, injuries ‘limited’ L.T. to just 1,110 yards rushing and 11 TD with a 3.8 ypc.  L.T. has an ADP of 7.9, which at first glance appeared a bit high to me, but after checking the reports coming out of the Chargers’ mini-camp, I think L.T. is positioned just right.  According to the Associated Press, Chargers’ head coach Norv Turner has stated that L.T. has ‘looked great’ and that he expects Tomlinson to get around 320 carries while rushing for 1,500 yards and catching 50 passes.  Given good health for L.T., Norv Turner seems to have his heart set on reestablishing Tomlinson as a fantasy force. 

To get your RapidDraft team go there now.

Draft your own RapidDraft team here!

If you have any questions or comments please feel free to e-mail me at thecornerofknowledge@yahoo.com.
 

About Fantasy Sharks

FantasySharks.com began in 2003, disseminating fantasy football content on the web for free. It is, or has been, home to some of the most talented and best known fantasy writers on the planet. Owned and operated by Tony Holm (5 time Fantasy Sports Writer Association Hall-of-Fame nominee,) Tony started writing fantasy content in 1993 for the only three fantasy football web sites in existence at the time.