Friday - Jan 15, 2021

Home / Commentary / RED LIGHT, GREEN LIGHT: Week 11


Welcome back for the Week 11 edition of “Red Light, Green Light”, your matchup guide for all of this weekend’s NFL contests. While the information conveyed below piece is not intended to be solely a start/bench list, it can be used to evaluate those decisions as well.

In each NFL Week 11 game profile below, players mentioned in the green light sections have a great matchup, and can be counted on as rock solid options. Players mentioned in the yellow light sections have just an okay matchup and/or usage concerns, meaning they are passable fantasy options but don’t expect them to set the world on fire. Players in the red light sections have serious matchup/usage concerns, require lowered expectations lowered for the week, and/or should be avoided if possible. Remember, seeing your stud listed in the yellow or red light section isn’t necessarily grounds to bench them, but more of an indication they may not be the guy(s) carrying your team to victory.

Note: Fantasy points allowed statistics are based off of the Fantasy Sharks default PPR scoring system. Point Spreads and Over/Unders are based off the Fantasy Sharks consensus analysis.

Bye Week Teams: Green Bay, Seattle, New York Giants, Tennessee

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers

Tale of the Tape – Ranks for Most 2019 Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game
Position Falcons Panthers
Quarterback 5th 24th
Running Back 22nd 3rd
Wide Receiver 6th 10th
Tight End 16th 28th
Defense/Special Teams 16th 12th
Vegas Line: Panthers -6
Vegas Over/Under: 50.5
  • D.J. Moore – Rolling along with back-to-back 100+ yard performances, and 30 targets since the Panthers’ Week 7 bye.
  • Christian McCaffrey – The Falcons rank 10th against the rush, but make no mistake, their defense is not good. Expect McCaffrey to keep up his torrid fantasy scoring streak.
  • Kyle Allen – Atlanta gives up 267.8 passing yards and 2.1 passing touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks.
  • Brian Hill – Takes over as the Falcon’s starting running back with Devonta Freeman (foot) out for at least the next two weeks. Carolina has allowed 148.3 rushing yards per game and a whopping 10 total touchdowns to opposing running backs since their Week 7 bye.
  • Curtis Samuel – He’s scored four times over the Panthers last four games, while racking up 520 air yards during that same stretch.
  • Greg Olsen – Finally came back to life with a 8-98 receiving line last Sunday, but still hasn’t scored since Week 3. Atlanta is more of a neutral matchup for opposing tight ends.
  • Panthers D/ST  – They may be moderately favored and at home, but the Falcons offense still has some firepower.
  • Julio Jones – His career performance at Carolina is a mixed bag, averaging 74.8 receiving yards and 0.57 receiving touchdowns across seven games.
  • Calvin Ridley – Since Week 3, Ridley has gone over 50 receiving yards just twice, though the absence of Austin Hooper (knee) should free up some of the Falcons’ target show to go the former 2018 first round pick’s way.
  • Matt Ryan – One of Ryan’s few outdoor contests this season, Carolina allows just 248.9 passing yards and 1.1 passing touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks.

Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions

Tale of the Tape – Ranks for Most 2019 Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game
Position Cowboys Lions
Quarterback 28th 6th
Running Back 12th 2nd
Wide Receiver 31st 13th
Tight End 3rd 11th
Defense/Special Teams 30th 22nd
Vegas Line: Cowboys -3.5
Vegas Over/Under: N/A
  • Dak Prescott – Detroit allows 2.1 passing touchdowns per game, and have generated just three interceptions all season. Prescott comes into this matchup hot with 6 touchdown tosses since the Cowboys’ Week 8 bye.
  • Ezekiel Elliott -Should rebound this Sunday after getting bottled up in Week 10. Detroit has allowed 168 total yards per game and 14 touchdowns to opposing backfields this season.
  • Cowboys D/ST – As long as its Jeff Driskel running the show for Detroit, Dallas’ stop unit will take care of business.
  • Amari Cooper (knee, ankle) – If Cooper’s injury is bothering him, you wouldn’t have known based off last Sunday night’s performance (11-147-1 receiving on 14 targets). Cooper should see plenty of CB Darius Slay, though would likely maintain a slight edge in the matchup so long as health permits.
  • Michael Gallup – He’s scored touchdowns in back-to-back contests after finding the end zone once over his five games played prior. Gallup should continue to benefit from Cooper drawing top CBs in coverage.
  • T.J. Hockenson – He’s put up 103 receiving yards over the Lions last two contests, and Dallas has allowed the third-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends.
  • J.D. McKissic – The Lions are running out of backfield bodies with Ty Johnson (concussion) being the latest felled by injury. McKissic touched the ball a season-high 16 times last Sunday, and could be in for a similar workload.
  • Matthew Stafford (back) – Could be looking at a multi-week absence. Even if Stafford is somehow cleared to play, Dallas is a brutal matchup for opposing quarterbacks.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts

Tale of the Tape – Ranks for Most 2019 Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game
Position Jaguars Colts
Quarterback 16th 20th
Running Back 19th 25th
Wide Receiver 17th 21st
Tight End 18th 10th
Defense/Special Teams 17th 18th
Vegas Line: Colts -3
Vegas Over/Under: 44.5
  • None of note.
  • Marlon Mack -He’s been fairly consistent with at least 70 rushing yards in 6 of 9 games played. Jacksonville ranks 23rd against the rush.
  • Zach Pascal – We’re still stuck with Pascal as the Colts’ no. 1 receiver with T.Y. Hilton (calf), Devin Funchess (collarbone), and Parris Campbell (hand) all at least a week away from returning to game action. The Jaguars pose a neutral matchup for opposing wideouts.
  • Eric Ebron – Targeted a season-high 12 times last Sunday, Ebron managed to go 5-56-0 receiving, though it was disappointing to see him with such an abysmal catch rate (41.7 percent). While we shouldn’t expect double-digit targets again, Ebron’s will again see heavy usage given all the injuries to the Colts’ pass catchers, particularly if Jack Doyle (shoulder) can’t get cleared. Update: Doyle returned to practice on Thursday, which likely leaves the Colts’ tight end tandem intact for Week 11.
  • Dede Westbrook – Returns from a shoulder injury that sidelined him in Week 9, and will also be catching passes from QB Nick Foles for the first time since Week, with whom Westbrook shared immaculate chemistry with during training camp.
  • D.J. Chark – While Chark has slowed down recently (51.4 receiving yards per game with a touchdown over the Jaguars last four contests), he’ll still see a healthy dose of targets with the Jags’ passing hierarchy fairly concentrated.
  • Nick Foles – Hasn’t played since Week 1, and faces a Colts defense ranked 6th against the pass.
  • Leonard Fournette – The Colts have not allowed an opposing rusher to eclipse 90 yards on the ground against them all season.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

Tale of the Tape – Ranks for Most 2019 Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game
Position Bills Dolphins
Quarterback 29th 8th
Running Back 14th 5th
Wide Receiver 28th 16th
Tight End 32nd 13th
Defense/Special Teams 10th 1st
Vegas Line: Bills -6
Vegas Over/Under: 39.5
  • Devin Singletary – The elusive rookie handled roughly 2/3 of the Bills’ offensive snaps over the team’s last three games. Miami has allowed the second-most rushing yards to opposing backfields.
  • Bills D/ST – The Dolphins may be on a two game win streak, but they are still ranked 31st in total offense (the Jets are surprisingly the only team that is worse).
  • John Brown – The uber-consistent Brown went 5-83-1 when he faced the Dolphins in Week 7, and has yet to be held to fewer than 51 receiving yards in any game this season.
  • Josh Allen – Rushing production continues to buoy Allen’s mediocre passing stats, but fantasy managers will take the points however they come. Miami has allowed 2.4 total touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks this season, and their defense ranks 31st against the pass.
  • Kalen Ballage – Operated as the Dolphins’ lead back last Sunday, and managed a pathetic 45 scoreless yards on 24 touches (which comes out to 1.9 yards per touch). Buffalo is a more favorable matchup for opposing backfields, and the manner in which Miami is feeding Ballage the ball should will him into moderately useful fantasy output.
  • DeVante Parker – The Bills allow the 6th-fewest receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts, and will draw shadow coverage from CB Tre’Davious White. It’s worth pointing out that Parker went 5-55-1 on 10 targets when the first time he faced the Bills this season back in Week 7.
  • Mike Gesicki – Only the 49ers have allowed fewer receiving yards to opposing tight ends, and Gesicki failed to impress in what was supposed to be a favorable matchup last Sunday against Indianapolis (3-28-0 and a lost fumble).

About Will Weiler

An NFL Red Zone addict and all-around data nerd, I've been obsessed with the NFL and stats ever since I started playing the virtual pigskin game in 2005.