Wednesday - Feb 20, 2019

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RED LIGHT, GREEN LIGHT: Week 11

Welcome back to this week’s edition of “Red Light, Green Light”, which is a matchup guide for all of this weekend’s (and Monday’s) NFL contests. While this piece is not intended to be solely a start/bench list, it can be used for some of those decisions as well.

In each of the NFL Week 11 game profiles below, players mentioned in the green light sections have a great matchup, and can be counted on as rock solid options for the week. Players mentioned in the yellow light sections have just an okay matchup and/or usage concerns, meaning they are passable fantasy options but don’t expect them to set the world on fire. Players in the red light sections have serious concerns, and need to have expectations lowered for the week, and/or should be avoided if possible. Remember, seeing your stud listed in the yellow or red light section isn’t necessarily grounds to bench them, but more of an indication they may not be the guy(s) carrying your team to victory this week.

Bye Week Teams: San Francisco, Carolina, New York Jets, Indianapolis

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns

Tale of the Tape – Ranks for Average 2017 Fantasy Points Allowed
Position Jaguars Browns
Quarterback 32nd 7th
Running Back 14th 25th
Wide Receiver 32nd 18th
Tight End 17th 3rd
Defense/Special Teams 25th 1st
Vegas Line: Jaguars -7.5
Vegas Over/Under: 37
Despite the disappointing fantasy output against the Chargers last Sunday, the Jaguars D/ST are an elite unit as the top option at the position this week against the Browns and their league-leading 23 turnovers.
The Chargers held Leonard Fournette to just 33 rushing yards and 1.9 yards-per-carry (YPC) last Sunday, and he faces an even tougher matchup this week. The Browns have allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per game to opposing backfields so far this season.  Averaging 4.2 receptions and 39.8 receiving yards per game, Duke Johnson gets to face a Jacksonville defense that has allowed more receiving than rushing yardage to opposing RBs since their Week 8 bye. Marqise Lee has amassed double-digit targets in three of his past four contests, a trend likely to continue with Allen Hurns (ankle) essentially ruled out for this Sunday. Blake Bortles has been a top-16 fantasy QB in each of his past four starts, and faces a Browns defense that has given up 8 passing scores over their last four contests.
The Jaguars having allowed the 14th-most fantasy points to opposing RBs is a little misleading, as they’ve given up just  2.5 YPC since trading for DL Marcel Dareus over their bye week. Isaiah Crowell‘s mini-renaissance that has seen him averag 106.5 total yards per game with two scores over his past two contests comes to an end. Corey Coleman (hand) is expected to return from IR and resume his role as the alpha in the Browns WR corps, though he won’t be usable against the Jaguars shut-down secondary. DeShone Kizer turned out his best fantasy performance of his career last Sunday against the Lions, finishing in the top-6 at his position. Don’t get any ideas this week though.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins

Tale of the Tape – Ranks for Average 2017 Fantasy Points Allowed
Position Buccaneers Dolphins
Quarterback 9th 13th
Running Back 11th 8th
Wide Receiver 4th 15th
Tight End 25th 5th
Defense/Special Teams 15th 7th
Vegas Line: Dolphins -1
Vegas Over/Under:
42
Mike Evans returns from his suspension, and should be get his season back on track starting this week, as the Dolphins have given up six scores to opposing wideouts over Miami’s last four contests.  DeVante Parker has been steady as they come, with at least 66 receiving yards in every healthy game he has played. Parker could be on the verge of a true breakout as Tampa Bay allows the 4th-most receiving yardage per game to opposing wideouts.
Don’t look now, but Jay Cutler has 524 passing yards and five touchdowns over his last two games. The much-maligned Bucs defense held fellow journeyman Josh McCown to just a QB24 finish last week though. Doug Martin has averaged just 2.1 YPC over his last two games, but faces a Dolphins defense allowing 4.4 to opposing backfields. With Ryan Fitzpatrick under center for Tampa Bay, it may be a good week for the team to rely on the run. Speaking of Fitzpatrick, he makes for a solid streamer given the Dolphins have allowed top-6 fantasy finishes to opposing QBs in three of their last four contests. DeSean Jackson goes back to playing second fiddle with the re-insertion of Mike Evans into the lineup. Jackson has his usual upside this week, but also a cavernous floor as evidenced by his five contests of under 40 receiving yards this season. Cameron Brate has just two catches for 19 yards over his past two contests, and is in a rebound spot as the Dolphins have allowed a tight end to either score or go over 100 yards in each of their last four games. Jarvis Landry has been held to under 50 receiving yards in each of his last three games, but has found the end zone twice over that span and has not caught fewer than 5 balls in a game all season. Kenyan Drake continues to impress with long runs of 42 and 66 yards the past two weeks despite limited touches.
Julius Thomas as scored touchdowns in back-to-back contests, but faces a Dolphins defense allowing just the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. Damien Williams is averaging just 2.1 YPC since the departure of Jay Ajayi, and could lose additional snaps to the more dynamic Kenyan Drake.

Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers

Tale of the Tape – Ranks for Average 2017 Fantasy Points Allowed
Position Ravens Packers
Quarterback 31st 18th
Running Back 12th 10th
Wide Receiver 31st 6th
Tight End 6th 32nd
Defense/Special Teams 17th 18th
Vegas Line: Ravens -2
Vegas Over/Under:
 37.5
The Ravens D/ST is in play this week against the Brett Hundley-led Packers. Hundley looked markedly improved last Sunday against the Bears, but the Ravens and their 6th-fewest total yards per game will pose a more difficult challenge.
Davante Adams now as at least 8 targets in three of four games played with Brett Hundley, as Adams appears to be the guy Hundley looks for first when making his reads. There’s obviously not as much upside with Adams absent Aaron Rodgers, but the talented wideout should be able continue thriving with the kind of volume he’s seeing. Jeremy Maclin put up 8 catches for 153 yards and a score across the Ravens last two games prior to their Week 10 bye, and will have had plenty of time to rest his injured shoulder.
The return of Terrance West (calf) and Danny Woodhead (hamstring) renders the Ravens backfield unusable until we see how all four members are deployed. Woodhead’s playing time figures to come at the expense of Javorious Allen, while West’s (if he gets any at all) would presumably chip away at Alex Collins‘ workload. Playing with Brett Hundley, Jordy Nelson has been a ghost, posting just 8 catches for 68 yards over his last three contests. Jamaal Williams is the presumed lead back for the Packers with Aaron Jones set to miss 3-6 weeks and Ty Montgomery looking iffy for this one. The Ravens have clamped down against the rush lately, allowing just 90 yards on the ground to opposing RBs over Weeks 7 and 8. Ben Watson continues to do just enough to stay relevant, but is not a preferred streamer given no NFL team has given up fewer fantasy points to opposing TEs than the Packers. Mike Wallace has one game this season with over 100 receiving yards, and 7 with under 60.

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

Tale of the Tape – Ranks for Average 2017 Fantasy Points Allowed
Position Lions Bears
Quarterback 20th 27th
Running Back 13th 15th
Wide Receiver 14th 22nd
Tight End 16th 28th
Defense/Special Teams 11th 5th
Vegas Line: Detroit -3
Vegas Over/Under:
 41
Jordan Howard has averaged 92.8 rushing yards over his last 5 contests, and his due for an end zone visit after being scoreless over that span. While the Bears’ aren’t quite the team to attack with opposing D/STs as they were when Mike Glennon was under center, they are still tied for the fourth-most turnovers on the season with a -5 differential. Fire up the Lions D/ST if you have them.
Golden Tate has averaged 98 receiving yards and scored twice over the last four games since his shoulder scare, but matches up with a Chicago defense that had not allowed a single wideout to go over 77 yards against them until Davante Adams put up 90 yards last Sunday. Matthew has averaged 336 passing yards and two touchdowns over his past four contests, but runs into a Bears defense that continues to maintain their streak of not allowing a top-10 fantasy QB performance since Week 4. Ameer Abdullah was looking like he was on shaky ground after fumbling twice in Week 9, but responded with 52 rushing yards and a score last Sunday, and appears poised to see more rushing work with Dwayne Washington (hip) sidelined again.
After putting up 331 receiving yards and three scores across Week 7 through 9, Marvin Jones turned back into a pumpkin with just one catch for 22 yards last Sunday. Jones has always been streaky, so it looks like he’s back to being a matchup play rather than a must-start. Mitchell Trubisky had his best game as a pro last week, throwing for 297 yards and a score, but won’t be worth streaming in a below average matchup. The Bears’ wide receiver carousel continues to be unpredictable as ever, with Dontrelle Inman leading the way in Week 10 with six catches for 88 yards. Neither Inman nor his co-target leader from last Sunday Kendall Wright are great options as all the Bears’ wideouts are a threat to pull a vanishing act each week. Eric Ebron had a sighting last week, catching two passes for 39 yards and a score, though only four teams allow fewer fantasy points to opposing tight ends than the Bears. Kenny Golladay announced his return from a lengthy hamstring injury with two catches for 64 yards last week, but is still firmly behind Jones and Tate on the WR depth chart.

About Will Weiler

An NFL Red Zone addict and all-around data nerd, I've been obsessed with the NFL and stats ever since I started playing the virtual pigskin game in 2005.