Saturday - Nov 16, 2019

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RED LIGHT, GREEN LIGHT: Week 6

Welcome back for the Week 6 edition of “Red Light, Green Light”, your matchup guide for all of this weekend’s NFL contests. While the information conveyed below piece is not intended to be solely a start/bench list, it can be used to evaluate those decisions as well.

In each NFL Week 6 game profile below, players mentioned in the green light sections have a great matchup, and can be counted on as rock solid options. Players mentioned in the yellow light sections have just an okay matchup and/or usage concerns, meaning they are passable fantasy options but don’t expect them to set the world on fire. Players in the red light sections have serious matchup/usage concerns, require lowered expectations lowered for the week, and/or should be avoided if possible. Remember, seeing your stud listed in the yellow or red light section isn’t necessarily grounds to bench them, but more of an indication they may not be the guy(s) carrying your team to victory.

Note: Fantasy points allowed statistics are based off of the Fantasy Sharks default PPR scoring system. Point Spreads and Over/Unders are based off the Fantasy Sharks consensus analysis.

Bye Week Teams: Bills, Bears, Colts, Raiders

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, 9:30am ET Kickoff)

Tale of the Tape – Ranks for Most 2019 Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game
Position Panthers Buccaneers
Quarterback 24th 6th
Running Back 19th 30th
Wide Receiver 11th 3rd
Tight End 28th 2nd
Defense/Special Teams 18th 17th
Vegas Line: Panthers -2
Vegas Over/Under: 48.5
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  • Chris Godwin – He already got the best of Carolina once with a 8-121-1 receiving line back in Week 2. Godwin is currently on a supreme tear with 19-272-4 over his last two contests.
  • Greg Olsen – Only the Cardinals boast a defense more inept than Tampa’s at covering opposing tight ends. Olsen went 6-110-0 on 8 targets against the Bucs in Week 2.
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  • D.J. Moore – Put usage concerns to rest (just 7 targets across Weeks 3 and 4) with a 6-91-0 receiving line on 8 targets last Sunday. Tampa Bay is the current NFL leader in receiving yards allowed to opposing wideouts.
  • Curtis Samuel – Hard to get excited about a guy who has put up just 6-49-0 over the past two weeks, though Samuel continues to retain a healthy share of the Panthers’ targeted air yards. At some point one or two of those big plays are going to hit, and this Sunday against the Bucs’ struggling secondary is as good a bet as any.
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  • Christian McCaffrey – Tampa Bay is the only team that seems to have gotten the memo that the key to beating Carolina is to key in on stopping McCaffrey, and let someone else beat you. McCaffery was held to a season-low 53 total yards on 18 touches the last time these two teams met back in Week 2, and we’d imagine Tampa Bay will implement a similar strategy.
  • Jameis Winston – The box score doesn’t tell the entire story of how poorly Winston played in Week 5, as he had two interceptions negated by penalties in addition to a fumble that was recovered by the offense.
  • Peyton Barber/Ronald Jones – Carolina isn’t necessarily a shy-away matchup for running backs, but Barber and Jones continue to negate each other’s potential. If you must choose one, Barber is the better bet for a short touchdown, having converted on 60 percent of his scoring opportunities as compared to 33.3 percent for Jones.
  • O.J. Howard – Averaging just 2.8 targets per game, we’re at a point where the optimism for a Howard turnaround is running out. Playing against a Panthers defense that held Howard to a bagel in Week 2 doesn’t help matters at all.

Washington Redskins at Miami Dolphins

Tale of the Tape – Ranks for Most 2019 Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game
Position Redskins Dolphins
Quarterback 5th 1st
Running Back 7th 1st
Wide Receiver 2nd 9th
Tight End 12th 5th
Defense/Special Teams 3rd 2nd
Vegas Line: Redskins -3.5
Vegas Over/Under: 41
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  • None of note.
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  • Kenyan Drake – Shackled to the NFL’s worst offense in terms of points scored per game, Drake hasn’t been able to get anything going this season. That may change against a Washington defense allowing 159 total yards per game to opposing backfields.
  • DeVante Parker/Preston Williams/Albert Wilson (calf) – At least one of this group is going to have a decent game, as the Redskins cannot defend opposing wideouts. Parker leads all NFL wideouts with 19.9 intended air yards per target (min. 15 targets), while Williams has been the most consistent with 50 receiving yards per game. Wilson is a wild card coming of a multi-game absence, though was highly productive out of the slot for a 7 game stretch in 2018.
  • Terry McLaurin – The good news is that Turbo Terry looked completely over his hamstring ailment while putting up 3-51-0 on 7 targets against the Patriots last Sunday. The bad news is that interim Washington head coach Bill Callahan declined to name a starting quarterback for Week 6. McClaurin was at his best catching passes from Case Keenum (foot), so we’ll cross our fingers he’s healthy and Callahan makes him the choice. Update: Case Keenum has reportedly been tabbed to start Week 6 so long as there are no setbacks with his injured foot.
  • Adrian Peterson – Interim Washington head coach Bill Callahan has openly admitted he would like to run the ball more, and there’s no better team to “establish it” against than the Dolphins.
  • Redskins D/ST – Despite getting shellacked the past two weeks, this unit does have some talent. Playing at home against the NFL’s worst scoring offense should make the Skins D/ST useful, if only for this one week.
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  • Dolphins D/ST – It may seem like a good idea until you remember that the Dolphins are actively trying to tank, while the Redskins are not.

Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings

Tale of the Tape – Ranks for Most 2019 Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game
Position Eagles Vikings
Quarterback 15th 25th
Running Back 27th 28th
Wide Receiver 5th 14th
Tight End 17th 13th
Defense/Special Teams 26th 20th
Vegas Line: Vikings -3
Vegas Over/Under: 43.5
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  • Zach Ertz – Minnesota’s defense is leaky over the middle, having already given up huge days to Darren Waller and Austin Hooper. Ertz hasn’t had any monster outings thus far in 2019, though remains one the more consistent tight ends with at least 50 receiving yards in every contest he’s played.
  • Adam Thielen – Perhaps the normally soft-spoken receiver should openly criticize the Vikings offense more often, as Thielen erupted for 7-130-2 last Sunday against the Giants. We’ll see when he can do for an encore against an Eagles secondary that had been hemorrhaging receiving yards and fantasy points to opposing wideouts prior to facing the Luke Falk-led Jets last Sunday.
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  • Alshon Jeffery – With DeSean Jackson (abdomen) still at least a week away, Jeffery should continue to soak up targets on the perimeter. Minnesota ha allowed at least one opposing wideout to score in four of five games played.
  • Kirk Cousins – The Eagles have allowed three 300+ yard passers in five games played. With the Eagles expected to shut down the Vikings’ rushing attack, Cousins is going to have to produce offense.
  • Stefon Diggs – While Cousins and Thielen were partying like it was 2018 last Sunday, Diggs was apparently not invited (3-44-0 on four targets). The matchup against the Eagles is juicy, but the fact remains Diggs has cleared 50 receiving yards just once in 2019.
  • Vikings D/ST – In a projected low scoring matchup that sees the home team favored, this unit lacks tangible upside against an Eagles offense that is both careful with the football and allows just 1.6 sacks per game.
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  • Carson Wentz – The Vikings are allowing an average of just 228 passing yards and 1.6 touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks, while Wentz is currently on pace to finish the season with his lowest passing yard totals ever.
  • Jordan Howard – While Eagles head coach Doug Pedersen has reportedly indicated he plans to feed Howard more carries going forward, this isn’t a good week for that plan to produce lucrative gains. Minnesota’s rush defense is stout, allowing just 77.6 yards per game to opposing backfields.
  • Miles Sanders – Only averaging just 10.8 carries per game, we can’t reasonably expect that number to increase based on the comments from Philly’s head coach noted above.
  • Eagles D/ST – As uneven as Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins has been playing, their offense hasn’t been one to pick on with opposing D/STs. Playing in hostile territory, the Eagles’ stop unit unlikely to pay dividends in Week 6.
  • Dalvin Cook – Made up for not scoring in Week 5 by putting up a whopping 218 total yards (132 rushing, 86 receiving) on 27 touches. Week 6 will likely tell a different tale, as the Eagles allow a paltry 47.8 rushing yards per game to opposing backfields (tops in the NFL).

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs

Tale of the Tape – Ranks for Most 2019 Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game
Position Texans Chiefs
Quarterback 10th 12th
Running Back 9th 15th
Wide Receiver 6th 23rd
Tight End 30th 6th
Defense/Special Teams 16th 32nd
Vegas Line: Chiefs -5
Vegas Over/Under: 55.5
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  • Deshaun Watson – Completing a season-high 84 percent of his passes last Sunday against Atlanta, Watson went nuclear with 426 passing yards and 5 touchdowns, while also adding another 47 yards on the ground. Watson has a chance at repeating those numbers in this week’s potential display offensive fireworks.
  • DeAndre Hopkins – Just like a Will Fuller eruption felt imminent a week ago, Week 6 feels like Hopkins’ turn. Whereas Fuller sits 4th in NFL air yards, Hopkins isn’t far behind at 9th. Expect Hopkins to see some significant market correction in this projected shootout.
  • Will Fuller – The 14-217-3 receiving line on 16 targets for Fuller was a rare instance of the fantasy community unanimously touting a player’s imminent market correction, and said player following though (crazy to think Fuller could have had two more scores had he not been tacked at the one yard line on both occasions). Fuller obviously won’t come close to achieving the same level of fantasy destruction he caused last week, but its going to be all hands on deck for the Texans if they plan to put up fight against Kansas City.
  • Patrick Mahomes – He’s uncharacteristically thrown just one touchdown pass over Chiefs’ last two contests. Expect a major rebound for Mahomes against a Texans defense that has allowed the most passing yards to opposing quarterbacks through five games.
  • Tyreek Hill (clavicle) – Appears closer to playing this Sunday than he was in Week 5, but reportedly still needs clearance for contact. If Hill can go, he has a dream matchup against a Chiefs defense that has allowed the 6th-most receiving yards to opposing wideouts.
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  • Carlos Hyde – The Chiefs are your new league leader in rushing yards allowed to opposing running backs. Hyde’s lack of pass game usage could hurt him though if the Texans fall enough behind that they feel the need to ramp up the passing attack.
  • Duke Johnson – His 6.41 yards-per-carry average is lower than only Matt Breida‘s 6.54 among running with at least 30 carries. However, it’s concerning Johnson hasn’t been targeted more than 3 times since Week 1 when pass catching is supposed to be his calling card.
  • Jordan Akins/Darren Fells – These two have been alternating huge performances, with Akins going 3-73-2 in Week 4, and Fells going 2-29-2 in Week 5. The Chiefs rank 6th for most receiving yards allowed to opposing tight ends, so its possible one or both of the Texans tight ends end up being streamer-worthy.
  • Travis Kelce – Amazing that Kelce’s 4-70-o line in Week 5 representing his lowest receiving output of the season so far. The Texans have allowed just the 4th-fewest receiving yards to opposing tight ends, though three of the five offenses they’ve faced don’t feature the position.
  • Chiefs Ancillary Wideouts – Some combination of Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson, and Byron Pringle figure to benefit if both Hill and Watkins don’t play. Last Sunday it was Pringle (6-103-1 on 9 targets) and Hardman (4-79-0 on 6 targets) leading the way, though Robinson out-snapped both of them, and could easily pop as well.
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  • Sammy Watkins (hamstring) – Things aren’t looking good for Watkins prospects of suiting up Sunday, as the receiver missed practice Wednesday. Watkins has a history of struggling when not 100 percent, so even in a great matchup, he could be a liability in fantasy lineups if active.
  • Both D/STs – This contest features two top-10 scoring offenses and highest over/under of the week.

About Will Weiler

An NFL Red Zone addict and all-around data nerd, I've been obsessed with the NFL and stats ever since I started playing the virtual pigskin game in 2005.