Due to Andrew Luck‘s season-ending injury against the Denver Broncos last season, the Colts offense as a whole has a lot of ADP value come draft night this season. I don’t just like the offensive players because I think they will put up great fantasy numbers for your team, I also like them because of the value you are getting when you draft these players. I am predicting the Colts to have one of the most explosive offenses in football this season. They will score points, and they will air the ball out on a consistent basis because…. YOU KNOW they do have one of the best QBs in football. Expect the Colts base offense to run plenty of 3 WR sets with 1 RB, and 1 TE lined up in their base formation as well. This is a perfect formation for fantasy purposes because it leaves plenty of statistical opportunities for many players on this team.
Below I am going to list players that you should target from this offense, and why you should do so. Spoiler Alert – I love everybody on this offense!!!
* This article will be using ESPN’s ADP research for its main source
Andrew Luck – ADP 44.6 – Before I’m going to talk about all the skill position players, I will talk about the guy who makes the offense turn. Although, I will probably not draft Andrew Luck on any of my teams because I’m a firm believer in waiting on your QB. I do believe though he will have a monster year in fantasy, 4,800 passing yards, and 36 passing TDs are definitely possible. Chuck Pagano and his coaching staff will put the offense in his hands and the Colts will be in many shootouts this year because their defense isn’t exactly world-beaters either. Another thing that helps Andrew’s case is the fact that his base formation this year is a very QB-friendly three-WR set.
Luck‘s projected stats – 4,867 Passing Yards, 37 passing TDs, 16 interceptions. 259 rushing yards, 5 rushing TDs
Luck final decision – I find Andrew Luck‘s ADP a round too early. If he were made available around pick 55 though, I would have to consider drafting him. If you already had your draft and took Luck at his current ADP don’t kick yourself over it, he will put up points for you.
Frank Gore – ADP 78.6 – Gore is old. So what! When you have a chance to draft a workhorse running back with your 6th/7th round pick you have to take that opportunity. Gore won’t wow you with his weekly stats. He will, however, provide you with a good stat line once the football season comes to an end. I mean, what’s not to love about Gore this season? He is going to be playing for an offense that’s going to score a lot of points, he practically has no competition behind him for carries, and he might even catch more balls this season as well (that’s hoping Josh Ferguson doesn’t come along quick during training camp). Either way, Gore is a player that will give you huge upside at the round you are drafting him. I would much rather use a pick on Gore at his current ADP than some of the running backs that are currently going in the first 5 rounds, Doug Martin, Eddie Lacy, Matt Forte, DeMarco Murray to name a few!
Gore‘s projected stats – 261 Carries, 1,071 Rushing yards, 9 Rushing TDs, 34 Receptions, 234 Receiving yards, 1 Receiving TD
Gore‘s final decision – Gore‘s current ADP is a steal for a running back that will be getting over 1,000 rushing yards this season (YEA, I SAID IT!). Gore is currently getting drafted in the middle of the 6th round. I, on the other hand, would have no problem using an early 5th round pick on “Old Man Gore.”
T.Y. Hilton – ADP 40.4 – T.Y. the Ghost had 1,124 receiving yards with Matt Hasselbeck, and Josh Freeman throwing him the ball for almost half of the season!!!! This is one of the biggest bargains in fantasy football this season. His ADP on ESPN is laughable because I can make an argument that you could draft Hilton in the middle of the 2nd round. He is going to put up WR1 numbers and you will be drafting him in the 3rd round at the earliest. T.Y. should see north of 160 targets, and will put up monster receiving yards. If T.Y. stays healthy, along with Luck this season, you can expect a repeat of his monster 2014 NFL season.
Hilton‘s projected stats – 87 receptions, 1,434 Receiving Yards, 10 Receiving TDs
Hilton‘s final decision – Hilton‘s ADP is a joke! I would have absolutely no problem drafting this stud late in the 2nd round (around pick 22). Don’t be put off by his stats regressing last year. Stuff like that will happen when you have your starting QB hurt for almost half the season.
Donte Moncrief – ADP 72.2 – Moncrief is a player that is gaining steam in fantasy circles, and rightfully so. Moncrief is a very fast receiver who has improved his route running abilities immensely from when he first came into the league. Early camp talk even stated that he is slashing a 4.35 40-time at camp. Moncrief’s stat line last year was 64/733/6. Again, that was with Andrew Luck sitting out almost half the season (although he did have a big game against the Bucs in Week 12). Those numbers should increase as his target count increases as well this season. With Andre Johnson, and Coby Fleener no longer stealing targets, you can look for Moncrief to go north of 1,000 receiving yards for the 1st time in his career.
Moncrief‘s projected stats – 76 receptions, 1,078 Receiving Yards, 8 Receiving TDs
Moncrief‘s final decision – Moncrief currently has an ADP I would bite on. His current ADP is at 72.2. I would have no problem taking Moncrief by pick 55. The writing is on the wall for a breakout season. Be one year early on this up-and-coming WR, instead of one year too late.
Phillip Dorsett – ADP 139.4 – Dorsett didn’t really show the football world his talent last year for a couple of reasons. First, was because of his injury issues, the other reason was because he had Coby Fleener, and Andre Johnson taking targets away from him. If Dorsett can stay healthy this season, I can see him going north of 700 receiving yards. The former Miami man wasn’t drafted in the first round without reason. He has great speed, and abilities and hopefully he can show it this season.
You also can’t forget that the Colts will be running a base formation that will see him on the field most of the time. So playing time for the 2nd-year WR won’t be an issue. You can even draft Dorsett and handcuff him to either T.Y. Hilton, or Moncrief. If either one of those WRS gets injured, Dorsett’s value in a pass-first offense will go through the roof.
Dorsett‘s projected stats – 53 Receptions, 757 Receiving Yards, 5 Receiving TDs
Dorsett‘s final decision – I would draft Dorsett a round or 2 before his current ADP. He is a player that has way too much upside to let stay on the draft board until pick 139. He is also practically one Hilton or Moncrief injury away from becoming a weekly WR2.
Dwayne Allen – ADP 141.8 – Allen put up a great 2014 season as a TD-dependent TE. I think you will see similar stats as his 2014 season, only with way more receptions and receiving yards. The beauty about Allen is that he will always be on the field for this Colts team. The reason why you will see Dwayne on the field a lot is because he can run-block just as well as he can catch TDs. So when you see his weekly snap counts, don’t be surprised if he played at least 95 percent of the offensive snaps for that game. Enough about his run-blocking abilities though. Let us talk about the opportunity that he was given this offseason when the Colts decided to give him $16 millions in guaranteed money. This was a move that showed trust with Allen‘s game because they didn’t even try to re-sign Coby Fleener this March. All in all, expect more targets, more receptions, and more TDs for the very underrated, and under-appreciated Dwayne Allen
Allen‘s projected stats – 55 receptions, 707 Receiving Yards, 9 Receiving TDs
Allen‘s final decision – Allen is one of the reasons why I am going to probably draft a late-round TE this year. Dwayne offers way too much upside to look away at his current ADP. I would have no problem drafting Allen once the 10th round comes rolling along.